Am I right in saying that if I own a Keras Share worth 1 unit, at today’s prices, I get to keep that share in Keras, and get some from Calidus worth around 1.3 of my Keras stock? I’ve been through it a few times, and believe I’m right.... just can’t fathom that if I am, this hasn’t rocketed. This not only means the market attributes zero value to Togo, but also doesn’t recognise the 30% discount to Calidus shares?!
It's simple maths. Fundraising dilutes a share. So if the company has one share worth £100, and they need another £100, they arguably need to release one more share onto the market. If they can get buyers, they can sell this at any price, but market dynamics would suggest they would reasonably price this at the same value as the existing share. However, they may only sell at £80, or indeed £120. In reality, although the company will have more cash after the raise, markets tend to keep similar market caps after, so the share price can fall unless they raise at a premium. In the example, likely to be £50, to maintain the £100 Mcap, or a 50% drop in existing share price.
In either case it can dramatically impact the share price. At lower share values, the company will need to release more stock to get the same amount in funds. This means that they will have to dilute a far higher proportion of the company to get the same return, thus heavily impacting price, thus pushing down the raising value.... vicious cycle. If so, they may not be able to complete a raise, and then would run out of cash, and go bust.
But that's the process, though not fully accurate, gives you a basic overview. Hopefully helps to point out it's not actually the share price that important, it's the amount needed to raise in relation to floated shares and price combined.
Any idea when it starts? “We expect authorisation prior to the wet season starting in the next few months.” - according to web sources “Togo also has a dry climate and characteristics of a tropical savanna. To the south there are two seasons of rain. The first one takes place between April and July and the second between October and November.”?
All I know is that the BoD has got a LOT more wrong than right. If a permit lands, I expect transparency regarding why, though assume it won’t be given. No investment either by individuals like Gregg over several years says it all. Don’t get me wrong, I need this to turn around otherwise I’ve lost a lot, but frankly would have removed Gregg two years ago for being hopelessly ambiguous and lost in his running of the business.
I met him once, and asked some direct questions to his face. Didn’t get a straight answer then either.
Upon release of the 265M performance shares, will this essentially dilute the current CAI price by 20% (i.e. 265M is around 20% of 1.4Bn), or has this already been taken into account due to the escrow arrangement? I am not sure Dave Reeves or Russell Lamming have been clear on this point, so any help appreciated.
Putting everything to one side, it would seem easier, better for all, and more professional to simply declare this as the problem, state what they are doing about it, and apologise for a delay. Ironically, such an approach may actually boost the share a little.
As I see it, you buy KRS and get the same value in CAI + 15%. Therefore when the in specie pays out, you holding value essentially doubles. If KRS get the license, I could easily see this going 0.75+, so essentially stand a realistic chance of 3x from these levels this year. That doesn’t allow for the likely rise following the unraveling of CAI and KRS after in specie. Am I roughly right... with a dash of optimism thrown in?