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Here is another example of Casino investing - My 88th post, hope it’s lucky etc. Better off l learning and researching how to find cash generating winners with decent balance sheets. Onwards and downwards for 88e I think..

Wow - What’s not to like...Share buybacks, Solid Director buys and a 50% return of profits in dividends. Also an over subscribed capital raising at 190p per share. Now on 50p to buy. One can never be sure of anything but the key indicators here are very compelling. I have topped up yet again and quietly confident - GLA who are like minded.

Just a contract renewal. The set ups and business model doesn’t work and never has. The results data tell the story, note no Director buys and a P/E of 64 with a nasty spread. The MM’s enjoy fleecing the novices on this one.

Might be there are some relationship issues, the Bina Bawi FDA not approved. The local guy Murzgul moved out to the side in a PR role and the Chairman resigning. I’m sure it’s repairable but this is my sense for what it’s worth.
We must be on a forward PE of about 1.2......A lot of Buffetology here or a possible opportunite moment for someone like DNO to pounce. Do you twist or stick? (I’m sticking)

Yeah, Look at all the Directors dumping hundreds of thousands of shares this month. They should be forced to buy at full price for 50% of their salary. That would be interesting - Bloody useless crooks.

Big insider sell off’s. Stobart always talk up their prospects but truth is they burned away all their cash since selling Stobart transport. The updates are woolly in words but do admit they are haemorrhaging badly on the Rail division with a stick of bad contracts and are changing out the management team, didn’t exactly have their eyes on the ball there. They are legal disputes regarding their renewable energy division not to mention the well publicised law suit now going to a higher court. Then we only have 3 Ryan aircraft using the airport and whatever other small visitors attend. The cash burn caused them to renege on their dividend promises and now Ferguson has resigned. The Directors used company funds in appropriately and I think they been found out tricking up the accounts, we got the classic delay on sign off going on with a woolly excuse that makes little sense. I’m pretty sure we got a train wreck coming out next week. The SP hasn’t crashed without a reason and it will drop more if any ghosts in the cupboard as their is most likely to be. I guess the only positive I can think of is Moniman will get in at under 100p pretty easily if he isn’t frightened off by the results and spin which destroys investor trust.

When you think that not so far back, XLM did a full capital raising to accelerate growth and okay the revenue was off a bit and the EBITDA also but not that much. We are getting after the higher margin publishing now and the company generates significant cash funding very solid dividends and a lot of share buy backs. I think fair value has to be at lowest half the capital raising price so a little north of 100p. If the next updates show either flat or growing revenues and any type of increase in net profit, this will reassure and be back to 100p really quickly. I like Ory continuing to buy at market price and am expecting some good updates moving ahead. Very vulnerable to a take over at these prices also. I topped up again today originally buying at 135p after the drop from 200p - Let’s See GLA.

All in all a nice update, it’s taking a little while to perfect the DPP best business formula in Poland admittedly but I think this update is solid. The current share price has a mountain of bad news baked in its doh. I do think we are the bottom and should start to this build up a good repeat business Polish fan club looking ahead.

Now Apple have approved others will quickly follow - Great news

SK4 - What a load of ramping tosh you spurt out. Real facts are the share is now so diluted it’s almost of negligible value. The cost of getting any oil to a refinery is barely breakeven (Need to build dedicated ice roads, permafrost drilling etc) which all mute anyway as all they ever find is salt water. The Directors and operations costs burn the cash with nothing to show. It’s another AIM non viable candidate for a wipe out / delist. The share jumps on jam tomorrow news and speculation then returns to more Dilution and ever lower SP. All your charts and speculations show a childlike approach to investing that based on emotional wishes. Go find a cash generative oil share with a decent balance sheet like Serica, Genel, GKP etc All of which will rise very quickly as opposed to getting wiped out. So may people here desperately ramping so they can exit without too many losses, it’s all pretty desperate now and truth and realizations are knocking on the door.

Wow, cash is king and we are swimming in it - New the results would be good, thought the interim losses would drag on the year end number but no - Absolutely fantastic, thank you BOD. Great to on board with all our long term investors - GLA. (Only thing now is how big will the jump today, I’ll guess 140 to 150p but then continuous as further efficiencies are implemented.

Well it’s interesting we have all the deals on the BKR back date to 1st Jan 18 under the terms of the acquisition. I think the deal was set up this way to use the 1 million plus tax accruals we have, very smart. On the negative we got the half year loss because Erskine was down 8 months.
So if with Erskine up and BKR added in we make 15 million EBIT then it’s about 7.5 million EBIT at Y/E. Throw in the tax credit refund and good but not superb. The current valuation on a P/E and I think a forward P/E doesn’t make the share cheap at all when alongside other big cash generators like GKP and Genel for example. In essence a great long term hold (2 years) because Erskine running, BKR under great cost management which Serica’s forte and the other wells that could be farmed out or developed from current cash are really positive. Shares are a long term hold, this is a very straight and well managed company (Not all AIM companies are like this) GLA. Let’s hope we have some surprises on the positive side tomorrow, if so likely get back to 140p quickly I think.

Any reason once the gas is connected we couldn’t get back to 15p - Thoughts anyone

Well if the FDA plan is all green lighted, could we be back on the way towards our earlier price of 15p over the year or 2. With assets of 45 million quid are we not hugely oversold here?

It’s hard to understand why we are not around 25p fair value. Brilliant performance with bottom line cash growth again - Well it should open significantly stronger, let’s see if we get towards the 25p this time.

Heard rumblings of clashes and minor concerns in the past with the previous CEO, don’t know the new one but on balance I think this is a net positive captain at the helm. He will want to make a positive mark as our new captain for sure. I feel pretty good about this RNS holistically

Silly rampers getting emotional and detached, MA man of his word etc. This is business, MA offered a conditional 5p, since then news has worsened, debts increased, pro or non pro. Brexit the uncertainty is stopping businesses investing, lay offs imminent. Having a little weekend spend at Debs of most peoples radar. Maximum 3p per share unconditional, probably a wipe out. Wakey wakey in real world folks. I am long but realistic

Berenburg are not a nuatral broker and until recently had a value of 95p, 10p next month maybe 2p. I don’t think these clowns are worthy of comment. All brokers pump the prices high to make their clients feel as good as possible. Debenhams etc all similar BS high ratings. Cash generation is the only true measure of growth in a mature company, where is the casgh growth, where is it coming from....Brexit certainty?

As an investor that wishes another buyer would enter the fray. He is where I’m at:
1. No one is interested because of fixing the debt, Brexit expected to crush the economy.
2. Ashley issued a highly unacceptable conditional bid at 5p.

In reality he can now issue and unconditional bid of say 2.5p per share and he has got the company. It’s private, it’s his with its debt so he can then do a CVA or merge with HOF etc at his will.

I think his advisors are probably telling him to write off his 80 million and leave alone. He is going to need some 500 million to square the balance sheet. One the balance sheet is squared can be really make profitable in these troubled times. He has a massive ego and wants to be the king of the high street but get it wrong and it could almost take him and his family down bottom line.

Well after our c.10 million in losses let’s hope the Y/E results are all the ramping has lead us expect. At the end of the day with a market cap c.300 million we need EBIT to come in at over GBP25m on around fair value compared to other oil Co’s. 25mil after the losses in the interims is quite a stretch. We got nothing exciting coming from Rowallan now. Probably be in a sideways trading situation for quite some I think. Others realistic views?