Member Info for Monty888

The votes will fly through, all above 85% is my prediction. Clearly a lot of novices on the BB that have no clue how these things work.
(To much hot air, speculation, impatience). The results every 6 months are the only tangibles aside a takeover bid or massive jaw breaking contract that can materially effect the SP estimated to be more than 10% per the listing rules

Wishful thinking. Keep it real

I wonder if we will get another tree shake today dropping the SP before close of play. Regardless of the new CEO cleaning up the balance sheets with what looks like excessive provisions, this is very undervalued and all the bad news on balance is probably in this 320p ish SP. I’m sure next week will have some positive on new customer development and hopefully stateside gaining traction. Don’t think we will ever see 1200p again in next 12 months but 600p to 700p could be a reality if the settlement closed and we get the wider spread of customers away from UK to spread the TCM more evenly.

The new CEO is untried, current one jumping ship when things should be getting better. My take is a lot of window dressing by GM, new CEO is kitchen sinking (cleaning up the crap on the balance sheets to worst case scenarios). Net cash should £13m plus whatever has been profitable. If it’s less then more BS (dodgy bookkeeping) going on. Its really going to be all about the numbers next week and then in another 6 months (Got to show growth and net cash increases). I’m not that confident as there are too many big sellers and no one is building any stakes, so something isn’t right it seems. Anyway ramping, de ramping and BS don’t effect the SP only audited accounts and trading updates (that have integrity) do when all is said and done. Hope it’s all solid and cash growth is better than £13m so at least we know there has been real contribution margin input past 6 months.

Whilst passenger travel normalises and hopefully the overflow sets up some nice commercial opportunities for Esken. Don’t forget they converted and grew their import / export freight part. With containers up in cost 500% and not enough capacity, many organisations needed to switch to air freight. Whilst the big bucks are in the passenger growth, the freight growth should be helpful to generate more income and slow the cash burn. Let’s hope we get a break (T5) is IAG’s hub, how about Virgin make Southend their hub. :)

New CEO has done what all smart needs leaders do, he has kitchen sinked the numbers to worst case scenarios. In turn knocking the SP lower. He will then negotiate option on share price growth and start recovering the business and SP. He is putting the company in danger of a low ball take out. You’d get for about 400p right now. Purely on sentiment. Of course it’s worth more but the real world of M£A isn’t based on screaming moaning PI’s. “Undervalued”

We seem to be waking up a little towards a break out, could we ever see the heady heights of over 40p again one day. With the sit ins opening up and the digital upgrades all completed, maybe our Polish Brothers and Sisters will get into a few poor pizza nights. I think the TV sport etc is good thing as well for take outs and we just had Tennis, World Cup qual’s etc - If we can show an increase in cash generation or more openings and revenue growth with a good balance sheet this will take off like DP UK and other countries. Fingers crossed

Real estate equivalent NAV PS 77p alone. Intrinsic value must be around 100p or so now. Dividends starting up again soon per RNS. Looks pretty good, glad to invested. (Can see the Directors are starting to load up again now, another good sign).

Sheer class “really” Lacking class is more your mantra. Emotional and aggressive, get a reality check. Latest post, yes the £40m stripped out but the £95m H1 published. Accounts now provisioned for £40m reduction and I think reality might only be £20m. How about sharing with a realistic prognosis why the SP has crashed in the past 2 weeks after what was on balance a positive update from “First” reading.

Correct, the £40m is stripped out and H1 is a record. The year end estimate remains unchanged at £100m. The previous year it was £211m. The SP is falling with some big value sellers, if this is so wonderful and so cheap why? The conspiracy theory it’s in a constant tree shake by MM’s doesn’t ring true when there is really demand and high level buying. It’s really hard to figure why the falls so I’m trying to look at worst case. It’s also odd the CEO is flying away in what should be the start of a wonderful uplift if no skeletons in the cupboard. I hope all is well, all is brilliant but negative spider senses are tingling and I don’t k ow why. I’ll not be selling regardless and hope we get good bottom line numbers ongoing.

My numbers are 100% correct read the the last RNS

IP group will do very well, keeping it real it’s 15% of 3 billion, not £17b - Cut the BS and ramping eh.

IP Group plc (epic IPO) own a chunk of Oxford Nanopore, their SP looks set to rise significantly if the floatation goes well.

Supply chain issues are much worse with no end in site. If they can’t load up on inventory they will miss their lucrative Christmas period (Especially digital sales). Cost of containers are up from $3k to around $18k then you got trucking fees up 3 fold that is if you can even get trucks per the current resource shortages. A lot of head winds around driving this down now. (Auto spares inventory becoming problematic too for the same reasons).

Take a look at Novacyt- Worth a punt at current prices

Well with a NAV of 77p from their property portfolio and these fantastic numbers, once absorbed by the brokers and the re ratings published we should see a nice uplift (75p to 80p) would be my estimates. Surprised we didn’t get a big bounce today but we do still need to put time and distance behind us from the old BOD and dodgy accounting I suppose. I’m sure in fact it’s all squeaky clean now are the investigations and the banks will have scrubbed the audit findings also. Only way is up at current low single P/E. GLA

Thanks Pianista. My sense is similar to yours that some stock shortages will have hurt and probably the cost of importing and that’s hard to pass on so might be a small margin reduction but cars and bicycles are the key drivers. Car spares and tyres probably ok but they did share in last update bicycles were challenging. Fingers crossed anyway and hope they can inventory in time for Christmas

Hi Wilson,
Putting the worst case scenarios to one side, I think best case would be:
Fix things with DHSC, do an amicable settlement and continue as a supplier we would shoot up to about £6 to £7 pretty quickly, alongside steady growth which I think is a given looking at the world situ and the new products. Also if the settlement is say £20m then that closes out the provision and the remaining goes back into the balance sheet. Anyway it’s fingers crossed for the best case or something close to it. GLA

I’m heavily invested and will remain so. I’m trying to figure out why the SP is so low (worst case real data driven scenarios).
Our H1 updates:
Revenue £95m, FY guidance re-iterated no less at £100m (We know DHSC gone) but that is a paltry £5m for 6 months revenue. This doesn’t seem rational or aside the positive words and all the new products they are minuscule revenue. So we are realistically back to being a £10 to £13m revenue company.
(Could this be why Mulis is jumping ship also).
A really big positive is we are debt free with around £95m in cash.
(So if that cash doesn’t increase and we don’t do more than £5m in H2 it rings a lot of alarm bells).
Keeping emotion and stupidity out of this, what are other people view on worst case scenarios, they is a lot of unloading going on here and there suppressing the SP, it’s not MM’s they can’t manipulate on shares high liquidity very much at all.

I been abroad on business (COVID-19) for 6 months. We have an update later this week if I’m not mistaken. Are HFD suffering from stock shortages these days on car parts, Bikes etc. Sorry I’m so out of touch - I think if not the SP will jump back over 400p if we are suffering from parts availability then we could see a 10p to 30p drop in SP I think. Really appreciate anyone’s data or recent experiences. Thx in advance.