Member Info for Monty888

Ok so an honest update and both revenue and profit will be a little off in the new FY. This is 200p share at fair value and I’m sure after the investor briefing we will bounce back to around 100p to 110p. It is amazing how much the sell off is and how sentiment turns so highly negative on some of these high quality well run companies like this, Volex, THG. These are great times to be topping up if you have some spare cash that’s for sure.

Companies can ultimately grow on net profit. To keep diluting your stock to stay afloat and keep all the BOD on nice fat pay checks at the expense of the naive investor should be criminalised. The hero BROM and his dear little postings have caused many a naive investor to waste their time riding this dead donkey when they could have done quite well else where. Look at the RNS’s for the past 5 years, they all the same [Jam tomorrow that never comes]. It’s all very clever and very sad for those that maybe cannot afford to get wiped out. Look at all my postings, look at Brom’s, look at the Share price. I think the pattern becomes very clear. GLA - Go invest in THG or Something like that where you will probably triple your money inside 2 years. (You’ll not make a dime in this Snow covered Ice Turd - Watch this space).

Thanks holy1. I’m hugely loaded at average price of 135p so I’m in no rush for the golden share cancellation. What is clear is that when that goes we will reach true value or be in almighty bidding war with a take out that I’m 99% sure will be 200p plus. I’d be happy with 200p in a year from now anything more is a bonus. If it drops below 80p again I’ll remortgage my house and load up. It really is as close to free money as I think I’ll see in my lifetime at these current prices.

I’m not sure there will be any short term pain, although global they make a lot of cables in China, so a lot build costs using a weakening RMB, sold in USD and reported in GBP which is weak against the dollar. As the Scott post also points out copper is hedged in all contracts so whilst there is hit lag on the way up there is delay lag as copper comes down which it is trending to do. I think the C level team are super smart in buying both upwards and downwards integrated businesses so cost become ever tighter controlled and globally they can source everything internally now so little to no margins going on purchased items down the road. The new acquisitions will need a lite time to further optimize as is normal. I think the interims could be very interesting in another 6 months time. This isn’t a share for the extreme short term but could back to 500p in a year if markets normalise. (That’s a big “IF” of course).

Do we know when MM had committed to give up his golden share?
When & If he does that will potentially open us up to a low bid aggressive takeover, we already know 170p was pushed back using the veto and power of the golden share. The only protection we will have is if MM, Citibank, Chairman with his million shares all unite and push away low ball takeovers. I also wouldn’t be surprised if MM will let that happen and then say him and his associates offer say 200p per share in a counter bid and they all take it private. He has already indicated 200p would be his baseline for a serious offer to open up the books for due diligence. What are peoples ‘serious’ thoughts please?

If it was sold for £28m net without any rental agreement then it’s real value would indeed be £28m however that’s not the case and it’s all wooden money in reality. But yes it does flatter the balance sheet and properties and cash less debt so give a nice NavPS but it’s not as clean as it looks in reality. However as I keep harpin on (boring I am) if Constellation paid 102p per share a few months back in a normal market we are worth more, my Spence is 115p fair value. I do also think we are vulnerable to a takeover at less than 102p.

When Constellation came in the Nav PS was c.72p now it’s 91p. Constellation will have completed as much due diligence before buying and being welcomed as a new investor. I’m sure they are expecting a 10% plus profit inside the first 12 months of their hefty investment. One would think fair value after todays updates around 115p to 120p. These are funny old markets lately but as we all k ow true value will come through and I’m sure we will see 115p plus inside 12 months (Nuclear wars etc aside).

With £98M this past year and the acquisition s like National tyre (Axel Group) all going to contributing to top and bottom line, do we really think the UK will be so much lower on car servicing, fleet hire, bicycle and also EV cars and bikes servicing and repairs will be so low. Only £65M to £75M next year seems too pessimistic to me and that’s what’s crushed the SP. Also they did their recent capital raising at 340p so to me and maybe some of the II’s piling in recently there is surely an upside back to c.340p one would think. I’m living abroad at the moment so lost touch, however do we think we will be so much lower than this year unless we have a big goodwill right down coming and we paid too much for the new businesses - What are peoples thoughts please?

Well the numbers are rather good holistically, EPS off a bit but that’s the 320p share issue to buy the 2 businesses and as they consolidate then the fixed costs will reduce. Next year’s profit estimates look lowish at £65M and lower than these results which is the only thing I can see as negative. I think the results will be better than they forecast. Whichever way one wraps this up fair value has got to be 250p to 320p in todays markets (I really cannot understand the markets these days at all). Similar for THG, NCYT & VLX etc. All solid expanding cash generators at good margins that SP trashed below any sort of fair value / logic.

Yes and they are pretty good, recent trading up 40% I note. The fundraisings are all 8p for their acquisitions that tells us all SP should be 8p plus. It’s surprising really this isn’t at around 10p by now. Getting close to breakeven as revenue grows so doing all right things it seems.

Well you would think with a strongly supported fundraise that the Directors hound as well a few months ago at 320p we should have a fair value SP above 320p. Well I have adding this week at 200p and we have results out tomorrow, I think they will be pretty solid and am hoping to see 280p ish soon. Let’s see - Good Luck fellow investors.
[Placing excerpt]
The Placing raised gross proceeds of approximately £62.9 million. A total of 19,652,002 Placing Shares have conditionally been placed by Investec Bank plc ("Investec") and Peel Hunt LLP ("Peel Hunt") with certain existing and new institutional investors at an issue price of 320 pence per share (the "Offer Price").

£170 would be nice ?? as would 200p to 250p ??

Results date not pre-published but looks like c. 22nd June looking at previous year’s results timings

We got to be worth more than 102p paid for their market to market trade a few months ago I would think.
Very vulnerable to a takeover for them now at 102p getting the rest of Lookers in these current markets which would completely undervalue where we should be on a 2 year from now basis (c. 165p +).

Won’t be long now, MM is committed to giving up his golden share and before he does he will want to get his company back and as he says it’s worth 250p. The shorters found out early it seems and all ran for the hills. Next week or soon after we should start to see the next level jump to 180 to 200p I think as it’s free short term money for any investors right now.

Normal
Market conditions and offers would be c. 500p The low ball 170p offers are all low baller opportunistic. I’m actually glad MM has his golden share right now. Bigger offers coming in soon as shared. We are looking at a low ball take out 200p if that’s the way it goes.

My average is 138p and kept averaging down to get to this, now got £160k invested. More than I wanted but do think it’s fair value will get to 250p ish in 18 to 24 months. It was always stupidly oversold and became a shorters campaign charlie. They will get fed up and all move on to easier targets and then the volatility will go away and we should get steady rises which I think is where we are entering now. Which is bloody good as the past 3 months haven’t been good for heart or sleep patterns ??

Market cap £280m, net profit £61m. property It’s cheap but doesn’t have assets above debt negative at all. Note £40m debt at increasing costs to service Net funds over debt of only £3m. Keep it real and stop over hyping please.

Actually it’s £61.2M net profit, not £80M. Yes it’s still an undervalued share as are many today. When the tide goes out all the boats sit lower in the water. A lot further to fall I fear….

Do we know how much business we have with Mcoll’s. It looks like they are going under and that could leave us with bad debts etc. I think this is why are in an oversold position right now. Very well run company with Sandy and Co at the help and I’m sure these headwinds will be testing but temporary.