Member Info for Monty888

Read the last results and they tell you all about H2 Bendipa1 and their forward earnings vs bad debt write off’s etc in H1.

Back to 225p where it was a year ago is feasible in the next 12 to 18 months. We know H2 is going to be really good and all the issues are written off in H1. I think we will see more Director buys ahead of the results. A very safe bricks and mortar company is very good growth sweet pot, as said a shortage of accommodation all round. Student, Private and Government.

The project read great, however it’s been pumped up on so many investment articles and its PR machine is in overtime. I think

they will have a big cash raising from

a heavily discounted book and build soon and us private investors could left on the sidelines whilst the B&B overhang takes months to dissolve. Let’s see…..

We know the results will be excellent, I’m more interesting in the forward trading updates that will be shared in the FY publications. I’ve a logical prediction that following the trends these will also becc c excellent. Of course we are in the closed period until Thursday 5th July but expecting very good news and a re-rating of 110p to 115p. Great time for a stealthy top up right now, although it’s a bit disappointing the the MM’s have increased the spread so the buy price is a little higher indicating they don’t have much spare stock on their books.

Generating cash, well covered annual dividend of 2.8p @ 33p that’s a nice 8.5% with a chance of a dividend uplift later per Dukes stated policies to shareholders. All is well and growth continues to go from strength to strength.

Yes - This is meaningful and should now get the SP moving higher as these get purchased by Zeus. As you say Rivaldo it shows confidence in their future cash flow. I would rather have much higher dividends but this is still a very good positive to break out of this lowly trading range bound situation we seem to have been in now for a long time.

I agree John. If there was one negative that bothers me it’s that MM basically purchased all the free holds so rents the properties to THG. It’s like a golden share by the back door almost…So a takeover would also need significant cash to buy back all the free holds and MM might load up a low ball SP bid for a higher than value sale of his properties as landlord. I don’t have data on this but do remember reading it several months ago. What are others thoughts on this and it’s potential negative (to us shareholders) effects relating to a bid for THG?

I’ve never really believed in technicals but respect those that do and seem to like them.

I look at my key list items and then take a blended view so it’s generally:

- P/E ratio (lower the better but try to understand why and likely forward P/E not just historic.

- Director buys (Are they at the full price and significant).

- Cash positive (Looking at debt over earnings, is the company generating cash.

- The type of business and barriers to entry.

- Recent BOD changes (Are they positive or concerning, don’t like to see CFO’s leave mostly).

- Kitchen sinking (Are the BOD writing down acquisitions, cutting staff, selling off or closing loss making areas of the business.

Why I like THG at current price is:

1. They now have a stable larger more diverse BOD.

2. They are kitchen sinking they’re over paid for acquisitions (healthy and appropriate).

3. They seem to keep growing in a difficult recessionary environment.

4. They are seeking a top 250 main listing which opens them up to more II’s with deep pockets to buy significant stakes.

5. There is clearly a lot of intrinsic value in the 3 divisions enterprise value and I think that’s somewhere are the 200p mark.

THG could do a 3 way split and give shareholders equities in Nutrition, Beauty & Logistics - Then they would be able to grow after as independents and also any of the 3 be open to M&A after the split. (This would be my preference but I think MM wants it all kept together). Anyway I think an aggressive bid or two by Christmas. Let’s see…..GLA Longs

Barclays reinitiates THG with 'equal weight' - price target 87 pence.

If this drops below 75p it’s time to average down for me - AGM update took all my fears away. Sooner or later the city and the II’s will forget their pride and start buying in a plenty I’m sure.

(Alliance News) - THG PLC's stint on the London Stock Exchange has been tricky so far, but strong recent trading and efforts to improve its governance have not gone unnoticed by analysts.

THG shares surged 9.5% to 79.79 pence each in London on Wednesday afternoon. It now has a market capitalisation of GBP1.04 billion, making it a contender for FTSE 250 entry, should a premium London Stock Exchange listing materialise. This will open the door to all the pension funds with 250 investment covenants and drive the SP closer to true value of 150p to 200p - A takeover big would be higher that this range I think & hope for the 3 divisions

The Bollinger worth paying attention to Stargate is the Champagne.

As indeed the SP shows since your theorem sharing

Aside the improvements to the BOD recently and today, the numbers are very good. It will take a while for the II’s to digest and the brokers to re rate, but they surely will. I think we could get to 85p by the end of this month, maybe tomorrow. Anyway the door is open to aggressive bids and counter bids and a main market listing now. I do agree MM was in the Middle East for more than he shared in LinkedIn. I think we could still see 180p takeout bid by Christmas. (MM pushed away 170p as an insult so he can’t buy us out for less than 170p and have any credibility and if he did say bid 180p others could then counter bid openly and publicly.

£1.7M loss before tax at the half way stage hidden near the bottom of the results and not showing in their summary table. Revenue is vanity, net profit is sanity. This is a key reason for the current valuation. Can it actually make a net profit, if not then sooner or later it will need to fundraise.

Drifted too low on small volumes past month, now very oversold and looks to be yielding circa a 10% dividend now.

Can’t see any barriers to stop us returning to our high of 245p over the next 12 months. The 5 warehouses consolidated into one huge unit with capacity will reduce the operational costs significantly as well driving up EBIT.

Looking forward to the final results, lighting stock that caused the share price to half (Oversold, negative market generally) is now sorted, batteries and nutrition solid vaping doubled from a year ago after M&A. I’m sure the forward statement aspect will be as good as the numbers also. Sandy and team doing all the right things here…..

Wonder why the accounts are not being signed off on time, these things have a long lead time built in, so delays are never a good sign. I agree Halfords has a good business model but very poorly run, poor customer service experiences are all too common causing people to go else where.

Sort of size and style that IHG group would like to add to their portfolio I would have thought. Completely agree they are doing a lot of things right at with a nav/ps of £25. Something good coming sooner or later, we just need to be patient…Good Luck fellow investors.

We know things are going really really well. If the markets normalized we would be back over 200p for sure - Amazing value at the moment. Ridiculously undervalued IMHO.

Expect continued dilution - Note the 14% spread, so you need to make 28% on a buy and sell just to break even. Uninvestable for serious knowledgeable traders.