Member Info for Moneysponge

Hypothetical
Company A has a market cap of 700m
It is seeing double digit revenue declines
Has poor ESG credentials
Not expected to be profitable until 2026
Has short positions increasing
Has negative free cash flow
Wafer thin margins
& growing competition
In a market which is likely to be heavily effected by the inbound recession

And

Company B
Strong ESG credentials (aforestation),
32% revenue growth
69% gross margin
At the profitability inflexion point
Less than 30m market cap (1.1p a share)
2 major holders recently forced into selling have dragged share price down creating a dropportunity
Has just raised 3m in cash
Has NET ASSETS of 9p a share on the balance sheet
Has no competition in a market which is set to see strong demand going forward (sustainable timber and carbon credits)

Out the 2, which one do people think is likely to double the easiest?
Given company B is hotly anticipated to release record results within days

psssst, I am talking about boohoo and Woodbois group

Silly little southcoastbather thinks company A is the most likely to double but he is heavily invested in company A and as equally as biased
LOL

Loads better opportunities out there than a 700m market cap struggling company guys, you just need to be a bit more dynamic and go find them. Boohoo is a sinking ship, shein are the big players in town now.
No.1 most downloaded fashion app in the USA last year.
D'oh.
Silly Southcoastbather

Haggis showing your naivity
Of those 43 II's, how many are just holding for private investors?
Shouldn't expect any more from a guy who thinks a stock that is down 70% from its high and under the 200DMA is in an uptrend I guess

So haggis, back to the case in point which is AFC's outrageous valuation
I calculated and proved my calculations that there's 5p worth of net assets on the balance sheet
I also looked in depth at the revenue, claimed to be 600k but actually its only 350k cash
and I put that on a generous price to sales multiplier and still couldn't work out why AFC are valued so high

You then educated me in your usual patronising dismissive tone and said that DCF is the way to analyse this company to find its true worth
So ok mr genius
Please show us all your DCF calculations and if they come out at 20p a share I'll never post on this bulletin board again.

Deal?
No of course not, because you can't do a DCF when there is no visibility of free cashflow can you. D'oh
Silly old haggis, ramping again.
Naughty

Southcoastbather is just salty because his boohoo position is killing him so he is projecting

What's easier to double in price, a 30m market cap company on the cusp of profitability, forced down by 2 II's needing to sell at the same time but are on track to produce record results imminently and have recently given an update showing 32% revenue growth and 69% increase in gross profit. A company with strong ESG credentials and have recently had £3m of ivnestment

Or

A fast fashion company which is seeing double-digit revenue decline, losing market share to shein, is projected to be loss making until 2026, has negative free cash flow and is valued at over £700m

LOL
Silly little southcoastbather
The guy is absolutely clueless

WBI is primed technically now with the RBB in play, sellers out, it's fully cashed up and expecting record results within days. Meanwhile he sits underwater at boohoo just praying, trying to convince others that shorts increasing is nothing to worry about. LOL !

From reading on here it is very apparent Soutcoastbather is desprate to get his money back
Sat on heavy losses after trying to buy the bottom
The bottom that kept bottoming
Silly little southcoastbather

He says ignore shorts increasing if it is just by a small amount but is very quick to shout about shorts when they decrease.
As biased as he is desprate.
I would be very weary of anything Southcoastbather says about anything
Expecially boohoo

For those people here underwater
it does really amaze me that you are so determined to hold on and pray this goes back up
At over 700m market cap for a loss making business seeing double digit revenue declines, wafer thin margins and increasing competition
It does seem to me there are much better opportunitys out there to make your money back
Small caps on AIM have been obliterated
It is far far easier for those with market caps of less than 50m to multibag than this.
If it were to double from here it would be worth 1.4bn
Not going to happen is it
I think with recession looming we have seen a short term spike causing a false breakout
And these should be back to testing all time lows in the near future
It's a very strong sell from me

Haggis
Once again resorting to personal attacks

I am perfectly capable of a DCF analysis given the right information
I have valued this on a net asset basis and it equates to 5p a share
I have also valued this on a revenue to market cap and an EV/sales multiple and both come out ridiculously expensive
SO
I conceed
Perhaps a DCF is the way to go.
Can you share your analysis or can you point me to where the next 5 to 10 years free cash flow for AFC have been projected and I will do my own analysis

I am doubtful you will be able to provide any of the above as your analysis stretches as far as to say "AFC are in a market worth billions and have loads of partnerships".
Your fundamental analsysis is about as basic as your technical analysis
The fact you think a share trading under the 200DMA is bullish rings alarm bells

Anyway, please provide DCF information to this forum so we can all see how you come to the conclusion that not only is AFC not over priced but that you expet people to buy this at 150m market cap and for it to go up.
I'll wait

Over 700m for a business which is losing market share
Which has negative free cash flow
Not predicting to be profitable until 2026
Seeing double digit revenue decline
Is increasing its debt

Warning signs here this is in a hipe bubble
It has overshot on way up like market usually does
Recession inbound and fully expect this to retest the lows at least
Strong sell - avoid right now

Garonne
I don't think the share price at 20p
Giving a market capitalization of £150m
Is disappointing at all
If I were a shareholder I would be exstatic

There's 600k in revenue (Actually only 300k when you delve into it) propping up a 150m business
Oh and there's 5p a share worth of cash on the balance sheet
Honestly 20p is amazing right now

Personally I dont know how its holding this level
nor why people like Haggis thinks its undervalued

Haggis
Is a share price under the 200DMA bullish
or bearish?

https://twitter.com/Borg74/status/1643585676066127873?s=20

Noel Borg confirming bullish pre-rounded bottom breakout is in play technically

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1630242244149248000?s=20

Myles McNulty thinks WBI will release record results so fundamentally bullish

Sells appear to have finally dried up, looking great here for a decent move upwards now

Gotalegs
Another poster attacking me rather than discussing the points i've raised
Seems this bored is full of people who havent not done there proper due diligense
and are now mad at me for delving deep and finding things when you should be thanking me

"slow uptrend" lol
Haggis stop it
Your killing me

Fact 1 - The stock has fallen from over 80p to 20p
Fact 2 - The stock is trading below the 200DMA
Fact 3 - The stock is trading below the 8, 13 & 21ema
Fact 4 - The chart has had a death cross
Fact 5 - The predominant color on the AFC chart is red

So you look at that chart and think it's in an uptrend, and I am the conman?

Your lack of objectivity makes me wonder how anyone can take anything you say seriously, if you cant see the chart is in a downtrend how on earth can we believe a word you say on the fundamentals.

the stock is overvalued and when the delayed results come out to prove it the chart will begin its next leg down, if it hasn't already by then.

Haggis the charts are there for all to see go to tradingview.com and look yourself
Nothing I have posted is untrue
You are making yourself look very silly
YOU sir, are the con man here

Big volume spike yesterday with a bearish shooting star candle
Indicating sellers in control
This is following a retest of the 200DMA which the stock has failed to breech
indicating the downtrend is to resume
Price can't get above the 8, 13 or 21ema which are all now pointing down
Indicating bearish sentiment

So despite the ramptastic posts from the sickofant Haggis, claiming how undervalued AFC is, it seems the market is not buying it. Symbolic of how the market aren't buying any of AFC's fuel cells.

Annual report being released last minute should give investors a warning
As should the triplling of the auditors pay
As should the auditors note about high risk of fraudulent revenue booking
As should the fact 2021 revenue was only 300k cash, not 600k
As should the fact the CEO alone earns more than the company does
As should ABB getting 10m shares completely against the initial deal agreed

The list goes on and yet so does the insessent ramping from the con man haggis who clearly has stockhome syndrome

Be careful here. Like ITM and PHE the revenues just dont back up the market cap (they too had IP and multi partnerships yet still fell 80%).
I can see 11p ish here in the not to distant future and when everything considered I now am of the opinion that this is a strong sell

Red Hornet
This is a chat for AFC

What have I said about AFC that is incorrect? I will wait

Red Hornet that is the first time anyone has replied about this issue so thanks
Maybe you are right
I didn't say there had been wrong doing just that when the auditors pay significantly increases then it is worthy of further analysis
It is a red flag that everyone should know about to look for

Now if you are correct and you may be the question becomes this
Were 2021 accounts significnatly more difficult than 2020 accounts, so much so that the auditor was able to justify trebling there pay?
I would have to go back through the 2020 accounts to determine that but perhaps you or some of the others who have been here a lot longer will know the answer?

Red Hornet if anythnig I have posted is factually incrorect then please call it out and I will correct it. Please go ahead.

If you feel like my facts are attacking AFC, it's probably because it's hitting a nerve and you know i am right

From 2021 annual report page 61
"We identified the risk of fraud in revenue recognition as one of the most significant assessed risks of material misstatement due to fraud"

Now results delayed with this reason cited "AFC Energy is working with its auditors to confirm the appropriate accounting and disclosures for the revised agreement within the accounts."

In 2021 the company reported revenues of 600k but when you delve deeper into it, there was only 300k cash with remainder being "consideration in kind" - WHAT IS THIS?

I posted all this days if not weeks ago and instead of reading it debating it most of you just stuck your fingers in your ears and cried TROL !!

Its clear as day what is going on in my view the sales just arent coming and Adam knows he needs to show significant increase to justify companys market cap and his own outrageous salary. Good product but is the price point wrong? is the marketgin/sales team not up to it? I dont know but right now company are giving tech away for peanuts so the revenue growth just isnt their and they are trying to fluff there accounts to make it look like it is.
Auditors are all over it
Even trebling there pay hasn't kept them at bay.

I am watching with interest here

Very defencive here its amusing
Does anybody get everything right?
Do you red hornet?

Am i wrong about AFC time will tell
Care to answer questions about AFC as this chat is for AFC

Why did auditors pay treble can you answer that basic question? Or do you just think you get to bang out the questions and we all answer you?
Auditors pay trebling year on year is a red flag so should be examined by investors carefully
does nt mean anything amiss but needs to be analysed

What reason is there for the audtors pay to treble year on year, anyone ?

Why did auditors also point to increased risk of fraud in AFC accounts?

Why is only half the revenue acheved in 2021 cash with other half being "consideration in kind" ?

If you lot are serious investors not just chancers punters then you will have answers to these questions.

Sadly it seems you dont as would rather attack and discredit the person bringing these issues to your attention

Weird way to carry on if you ask me

Please note that the auditors pay trebled in 2021 and they made note about there being a greater risk of accountancy fraud given the way revenue is recognised by AFC - they didn't say there was any fraud just that there is a risk of it
Then we find the 600k in revenue isn't all revenue as only 50% of it was cash with other 50% being "consideration in kind"
We know the CEO has a total compensation package of over 800k when the company were doing less than 600k and probably closer to 300k
All just seems a bit questionable at this stage to me so wanting to learn more
Haggis is acting like a con men trying to bery my legitimate questions with a flood of fluffy "good" news.