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Regs on vet bills
There is a $520m bond due July 2025 however.
Important to remember why you invested in SYNT in the first place.
Many buyers will have bought at way higher levels than 6/9 closing price.
Balance sheet and future secured for SYNT.
https://ir-news.synthomer-e.com/downloads/A.4.%20Investor%20Presentation.pdf
Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/fallen-penny-share-analysts-tipping-120944418.html
How so?
12/6 * £101.1m depreciation of PPE + £26.6m amortisation on page 34 of the HY release gets you to £255.4m rounded to £260m.
This is BEFORE the auditors come and order the accelerated write down of the goodwill c/v in the intangibles. Particularly the poor performing NA arm. So likely to be £4-500m loss once that’s put through. We saw what they did with ALSA last year and now things are even worse than PY sign off.
I’m long here but no need to sugar coat things. As we’ve agreed, it’s non-cash but let’s not mislead people, sir.
Depreciation and amortisation are about £260m and interest will be around £75m so looking at £135m loss for the year before any tax credits
They have no duty to inform the stock market below 5%
From 2013 mate
Will they have to do a rights issue considering their small balance sheet not sure they could get a significant bank loan
For heavens sake, you would simply not pay out a dividend if you were going to then do a rights issue. That’s literally corporate management suicide. Can we move the topic on as it’s not happening.
If this was the only stock down then I’d get it. The entire FTSE250 is down ~0.5% today. Weak appetite for UK shares. The market sees wage growth as a bad thing and is nervous amid the inflation print tomorrow.
Naturally with the debt size of MCG it’s going to be less favourable than those with stronger balance sheets coupled with the relatively low volumes.
Let’s all hope the inflation print shows it’s under control at 7am tomorrow
MCG clearly have pricing power from the barriers to entry in their marketplace, no Nelly can just set up a business tomorrow with 46,000 employees (many of which are drivers with specific licences).
Nor can you order state of the art buses and have them delivered tomorrow.
Their vehicles are full of passengers and will keep increasing. I think we’re underestimating how much through put they’ll continue to have this summer as people continue to seek experiences outside the home. The travel boom hasn’t gone anywhere and MCG bus/coach options provide an affordable option. Together with hybrid working this will mean we have lifestyle changes not baked in, for example being able to go away for 1-2 weeks but maybe only on holiday for a few of those days and the rest working but enjoying the evening in a new location.
Their H2 will be rock solid, no doubt about it. Many US companies are wanting employees back in offices which should help shuttle too.
We’ve simply had cost before the revenue (price rices) and cost reduction (trimming the fat).
I also imagine they’ll have some gains to report on the fuel hedge as the whole prediction that China’s reopening was going to cause mayhem in commodities has gone down the drain. Lots of forward contracts will be repriced and unwound as a result of their deflation.
Strong buy to strong sell in 2 days? Thank goodness you don’t work for a broker!
Neither Entain or Mobico have £8bn of debt with no income coming in? But the face that MCG is rated BBB and Entain is BB (BB is lower than BBB).
The risk of default is extremely low. There’s solid cash conversion with MCG in that there’s a low risk of customers not paying given the nature of the business. The only way cash isn’t coming in to meet liabilities would be through another pandemic/lockdown. Those passengers numbers/cash is through the roof.
200 back office jobs gone for H2. Together with the solid trend line and the price increases baked in for H2, this will be going back once actuals come in. I see very little chance of the business not achieving the £200m-£215m EBITDA forecast given wages are settled, fuel is hedged and cost cuts starting to feed through (£15m) in H2.
Https://www.mobicogroup.com/media/qvndslht/hy-presentation-2023.pdf
Slides 13-15 here with the waterfall was very encouraging.
Yes they carry debt but they’re more than covering with he FCF being generated.
A question someone might know the answer to, on their balance sheet they’ve got a large amount of debt with a 7 year maturity period from 2022-2027/9, does anyone know what that actually means in terms of maturity?
I think I calculated on the £400m bond if that gets refinanced from 2.5% to 9% it would mean extra interest charges of £26m which can be covered.
Overall a stronger credit rating than Entain, a gambling company with £8bn mcap.
It seems to me that we’ve got a serious timing issue between backdated payrises and price increases not beginning until Q3 onwards. Add to this the cost savings and revenue numbers up. If revenue was down I’d understand the risks and share price drop.
Fitch maintained BBB rating on 25/4/23 and issued a report here - https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/national-express-group-plc-25-04-2023
This would’ve been as rates were rising and the macro picture was clear so I think we’re fine tbh.