RE: Get out price?7 Oct 2021 15:17
Along with Stillwater, the NAP acquisition just under 2 years ago is another good benchmark. That had the advantage of already being in production, but had a significantly smaller resource. It went for $1bCAD, so circa £585m at today’s exchange rate. Even being very conservative and taking into account that NAP provided immediate revenue to the purchaser (Impala), you would expect EUA to at least attract a figure of 3x its current mcap, if not significantly higher.
I’d avoid trying to guesstimate a sale price based upon the resource size and today’s PGM prices, due to the constant fluctuations in price. EUA first mentioned it had been approached by a number parties 2.5 years ago, about the purchase of MT. Pd was only worth around $1300/oz then and Pt circa $850/oz. Based of the “current” PGM price at the time, this would have been worth significantly less to a purchaser because the margins are much smaller. On the flip side, 6 months ago Pd was pushing on $3000/oz and Pt $1200, so would have attracted much higher margins than it would today because that $1000/oz would all be profit.
Basically, by calculating a sale price off today’s figures you are saying the sale price is significantly lower than it was 6 months ago, which coincidentally is the same time a proposal from a credible party for the potential acquisition came in. Plus, at the same time you are saying that EUA was worth 3x more at the time of that proposal than it was 2 years previous. This is why it’s not advisable to work off a percentage of the current insitu value, as it fluctuates significantly over small periods of time.