Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It’s a matter of perspective. If the EBITDA does get to $15m+ as planned next year, the mcap will likely be significantly higher than what it is today. So, the debt is small from that perspective. I haven’t checked but I wouldn’t be surprised if VAST is currently trading below NAV.
Unfortunately, as you say, that is the oil and gas business. You only have to look at 88E to see how easily and how often it can go wrong. The volatility in prices doesn’t help either.
On the flip side though, oil and gas has the potential to make some big returns. High risk but high reward too.
If you had read the announcement you would know why they chose not to sample A:
“To maintain efficiency a decision was taken to not take a Sand A gas sample in the Anchois-1 well as gas samples were successfully obtained in the previously drilled Anchois-2 well”
Then, if we go all the way back to a whole 8 days ago:
“Previously discovered Gas Sand A was not targeted in the Anchois-2 well, due to the intention of evaluating it in the subsequent Anchois-1 re-entry operations, however, the Anchois-2 well encountered gas bearing sands at this level providing important additional subsurface data”
So, they already had the data they needed and it’s nothing to do with “its not serious” as you wrongly assumed…
Hopefully Rolf didn’t waste any money on this “speculative buy” research note…
The forming of the new subsidiaries to separate Nickel/PGM’s may mean that there could be a separate sale for the Nickel assets to the PGM dominant assets. It would make sense too, as it would make the assets more affordable and ultimately competitive, so would bring in a higher price overall. Plus, some parties would be more interested in the Nickel assets, whilst others more interested in the PGM assets.
On the other hand, if less assets were being sold, with the view of EUA bringing them into production, that would be much more profitable for shareholders in the long term.
It’s not just “conclude” that sticks out, it’s that whole section “much more to follow as we successfully conclude our initial strategy”.
There’s a lot of news still to come out, but the words “as we successfully conclude” make it seem that they’re confident a sale is going to be finalised.
I imagine it’s going to continue to hover in the 5-6p range until we get the results from the lab. Then, if the results are good, where the share price will be after that is anyone’s guess.
You’ve got to remember, some of the TR1’s had to bail KIBO after the proposed consolidation was rejected. LC still hasn’t delivered anything off the back of that so it would be a huge gamble to plough even more money in.
LC is just incapable of getting anything over the line:
- KIBO: Hasn’t made any significant progress on any of its projects in the last 4 years. Bordersley was due to be commissioned in March 2020, got “delayed due to Covid-19”, then MAST was IPO’d in April 2021 and construction is still yet to commence. KIBO has also seen its shareholding in KAT diminish from 50% down to 20%.
- KAT: Sold a phenomenal asset in Imweru, for next to nothing. Wasn’t able to sort funding out for the Blyvoor project, so has opted to IPO it instead. Realistically it doesn’t have the funds to take Haneti very far, without further placings.
- MAST: Has an mcap of £15 and one producing asset, with an EBIDTA of only £488,221 per annum. It shows the MAST is currently overvalued.
Unfortunately, as Jax has said numerous times, LC is a Director that is worth staying well clear of.
It would be nice just to get £3m in cash out of BritNRG. It would at least mean MNRG has the value of its mcap in cash, therefore the other assets wouldn’t yet be factored in. It is a shame what’s happened with BritNRG, as it’s a £20m+ asset that MNRG was supposed to own 50%. Represented a huge upside.
14 post but only 3 trades, you can tell we’re waiting for something to happen! Just to clear-up a few bits:
- BMV is on the Main Market, not AIM, so can’t just dilute into oblivion without approval.
- Brainless was invested in BMV only 7 months ago. Then sold-out, saying a deal won’t be reached with SAU. The deal finalised the following week. He even admitted to being unable to buy back in at the same price that he sold.
- Ronald hasn’t been a holder of BMV, but instead owned DISH. Over the period he was a holder of DISH, the share price dropped massively. He blames AB for his loss, so talks down BMV, in what looks like an attempt to justify his failed investment was the fault of AB, not his own.
In terms of failed investments, I think we’ve all had one or two that haven’t paid-off. From my experience, the key is to learn from it, figure out what went wrong and avoid making the mistake in the future. I can’t remember the names of many of the investments I’ve had that didn’t work out, but I do remember the things to look out for and the “red flags” when investing in other companies. Likewise, I note the attributes of the big successes I’ve had and look for the same when investing elsewhere. Fortunately, these days there tends to be more positive investments than failures…the latest being CHAR, which had a nice 44% rise today!
Nice little surprise to find this announcement after I left the gym this morning. Share price flying already too.
I don’t know, I’ve had some phenomenal RNS’s on Fridays. Thursday releases tend to be because news has just come in and needs releasing, not because it’s bad. From my own experience, on average, Tues and Wed tend to be the less favourable announcements because most good news comes out on a Monday.
Either way, news will/should arrive when it’s available. Hopefully it will be this coming week, if not, it shouldn’t be too long after.
It will be interesting to see what those “f*cked up rocks” contain. They’re very different to samples I’ve seen from many companies in the passed, so wouldn’t have the foggiest idea if it’s good that they look like that or not. It’s why I was hoping the XRF results would be released as at least it would give us an indication that the rocks being “f*cked up” is positive.
Yeh I follow BritNRG on Twitter and it’s new flow lately is a bit of a kick in the crotch. It’s performing very well indeed and owning 50% of it would have surely pushed MNRG’s mcap toward £10m, regardless of the other projects. Rolf has been saying he’s confident of a positive solution and believes there’s still value in BritNRG. It’s just a waiting game until we find out what that is.9
With all the additions to the team over the last 12 months, the BoD must think they’re on to something big already. The XRF readings must have surely shown some positive results, otherwise it’s a bit of a gamble making all the additions it has done, without waiting for at least some of the assay results to come in.
Now HZM is funded, it’s more a matter time than anything else over there.
I particularly like how JAN has conducted itself in terms of heading towards production. Focussing on achieving production in the quickest and cheapest way possible has allowed it to minimise dilution. It’s a bit of a shame that it has given up Pedra Branca, as that is why initially got me invested here. However, doing so has enabled it to focus on Pitombeiras. The initial capex payback period of 3 months is probably the shortest I’ve ever seen too.
All resolutions passed.
Due to the short timings and the period, I wasn’t sure if enough votes would come in to pass these. Good to see Charles Barclay was re-appointed.
“4.4. The dividend amount shall be recommended by the Board.
The target dividend amount is at least 80% of the Adjusted Net Income”
Without speculating too much, as it could purely be off the back of shareholders asking the question. Although, 80% is a fairly high percentage of annual net income. On the flip side, if it is in preparation of a sale, 20% is a large portion to retain, so EUA must have some big plans going forward.
The fortunate part of BritEnergy having other shareholders is that they will want some return also, which gives MNRG a return by default. My personal view is that we’ll come to an “arrangement” and PR will just pay us of. Whether this just recoups MNRG’s costs or brings in a profit though would be anybody’s guess.
One thing is for sure, any value we still have in BritNRG certainly isn’t recognised in the current mcap.
Gall,
In terms of lower risk but potential high reward, I’d say; EUA, AAU, CMCL, BMV, EQT and HZM.
Slightly higher risk but very good prospects; CHAR, VAST and POW (a few wouldn’t agreed with VAST, but considering it has a producing mine and is currently trading lower than NAV, it has the potential to provide a tenfold return if it sorts itself out).
If you’re not adverse to a risk; KAV, GBP and MNRG have potential to make some very big returns.
If you’re not concerned about risk at all, PFP could provide a very big return as it’s court battle may finally be coming to a head this year. It’s mcap is £3m and the asset it is in a court battle for has an NPV of $1.05 billion, plus its damages claim for loss of profits stands at $620m… As I say, very high risk, but if it were to be successful in its court battle, there’s a good chance you could make 100x return, if not more. On the flip side, if it loses this battle it could very well be the end of PFP.
As a comparison in terms of risk, for myself, JAN sits somewhere between the lower risk bunch and the slightly higher risk.
Obviously DYOR before investing anywhere.