Member Info for moneyhawk

Or maybe BP is selling their interest in prudhoe to pay for development of a new major oil field? Maybe even something else a short drive down the Dalton highway.

Anyone know of something that fits the bill and which may be announced in August :)

Interesting stuff, it wasn't that long ago BP were saying they wanted to see another 40 years at Prudhoe Bay.

Unusual for a rumor to also have a public announcement date penciled in, 'mid-august' next 2 weeks maybe?

I wonder how that kind of incentive works in practice. A 1% royalty could certainly give an incentive to get a deal that will involve going into production sooner rather than later. But the best deal for Panr? All depends just what they're looking for I guess.

If that’s the case we’ll probably get some tr1s soon. But my impression is that they invested into Kabwe/sable with the knowledge the project isn’t going to be at full production and start to deliver the significant returns until 2020 or 2021. Selling up now wouldn’t make a lot of sense, they’d have been better off selling sooner than this.

Kaiser, think the odds are pretty low of us toll processing this for xtr. Probably very likely CB has included a reference to Kabwe to try and gain an advantage on how people see this project. But all they're talking about is interim drill results and the need to do more drill testing.

Very long way off actually mining anything there, xtr might never do it.

One possible use of cash thats been mentioned is to secure rigs for this winter, which may be more critical than getting all the permits sorted out this far in advance.

The only sure way I can see you can gain from this approach is to find a professional financial advice that is foolish enough to give the same opinion as Miloh, and then sue them when the loses materialize.

Talking of clues, Chevron have published their transcript from their quarterlies. Nothing of any substance though. A couple of questions on acquisitions and deals, but the answer is they won't speculate, with added comments that they are in a strong financial position and they have been opportunistic in the past.

https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/93939f6e-701d-415c-bb0b-85208b1f5e4a

When braking down what is being said, it appears to me the suggest approach being put forward is essentially to make two bets. 1 bet that the price will go up and a 2nd bet that the price will go down. So no matter what happens you make a gain on one bet to cover the loss on the other.

But ignores the risk involved with shorting, which is the losses can far exceed the gains, and that loss will be locked in as an actual loss when you run out of money to cover the loss. (Unlike holding shares, where if the price falls you still have your shares and can make back any paper loses when the price recovers.)

Doesn't appear to be very rational advice being given here, sounds more like advice from a habitual gambler who always believes he can beat the odds.

If all you want to do is not make a loss, it'd be safer to keep cash in a bank account. The net result would be the same or better.

Of course we had choices. We could have carried out a Great Bear style fire sale. We could have just sat on it and done nothing. If nothing was there we could have relinquished all the leases.

The more relevant question is what is the purpose of farming out in exchange for working interest?

We’ve gone this long without anything leaking, over a year since the data room was first opened, so very unlikely anything would leak from our side.

Current situation is our preferred bidder has been on board since March, it’s all agreed at high level, they’ve paid $500k to get things moving for drilling this winter, and now just final terms of the contract being sorted out.

All appears to be good. Only problem at the moment is no one knows who it is and what deal we’ve agreed, so no one knows how to value us.

My view its that's its probably toll processing at windsor. We're reporting on chrome concentrate produced there, but the revenue reflects that we're just receiving a fee for processing it and not the revenue from its sale. Thinking about it, we know that we've bought the processing operation, but we haven't bought a mine and its not a tailings operation, so the material has to be coming from somewhere.

But without seeing a breakdown of revenue and production figures from DCM and Windsor its difficult to tell for certain whats going on.

If that is whats happening, then an interesting point for what happens with the tailings and if there's more value to come. We started out buying the tailings from platcro, which contained PGMs. So presumably whatever we're running through the plant now also contains PGMs, and therefore the PGM side of the project will be a longer life project than previously thought. And if we can extract more chrome using the fine chrome process, do we keep that or charge a higher fee for extracting more?

Business as usual then, a JLP news release that isn't clear and creates more questions, lol

If I remember correctly, the permit to drill was the last thing done on winx prior to work starting, so we might not be at that stage yet.

I would have thought Lefkosia would have learnt his lesson on the risk of short positions during the winx drill. He told us at the time (when the sp fell) that his position was closed due to margin rules (i.e. not having enough cash to cover his loses).

But now appears to be encouraging others to do the same.

See posts on 2nd march, clearly said he has spread bets on 88e, so why his fascination now of a spread betting company being mentioned and acting as though its a new thing to him?

I'm not discounting Chevron, would be a great move for both.

But looking at the timelines, we selected our preferred bidder back in March at a time when Chevron were deeply involved with their deal to buy Anadarko. That deal would have used up all their free cash (plus a lot more) and given them plenty of new assets to develop, and would probably have required lots of cost saving across the combined companies. Would they have also been looking to take on an additional project at Icewine that would require a lot of expenditure for the next few years?

Maybe, its definitely a possibility. But all I'm saying is at the key time in the farmout their focus was elsewhere.

Dealing with the plan for HRZ pressure cores could be one of the points in the final terms being agreed.

If the farmee is paying all the costs then I can see a scenario where they would also want some rights to the HRZ in the working interest that they're earning from the conventional, or a clause to recover that element of the cost. Would be no problem if they end up being the HRZ farmee as well, but if they're not then very important to get the terms right to avoid any complication with the HRZ farmout further down the line.

I've wondered the same thing - whether the farm out may cover more than just the conventional.

But the update does say say "farmout process for its conventional prospect portfolio at Project Icewine", so seems pretty clear without leaving room for doubt on what the farmout is covering.

My feeling is that progress on everything else is more or less on hold until this farmout is resolved.

An appropriately named website here for some info on short selling. Bizarre really that anyone wants to advocate it as a good idea, making random bets on the horses could be a less risky form of gambling.

https://www.dummies.com/personal-finance/investing/the-dangers-of-short-selling-in-an-uncertain-economy/

Hope that'll turn out to be a good move for you brom.

As for SP, a lot depends on what the actual deal is, and also how it's received and interpreted. Hopefully DW will be giving the details as clearly as possible without statements that can be interpreted in many different ways. But as seen this morning not everyone is going to understand what it means when we are told the terms, not even some posters who have 100% confidence :)

Yes hope its sooner as well. But not ruling out the possibility of the exclusivity agreement being extended either. We've still got plenty of time until the start of the winter drilling season since they're willing to hand over money to keep things moving forward on a work schedule. So we're not stuck in a position of needing everything fully signed off by the end of the month or cancelling plans for this winter.