Member Info for moneyhawk

Islayman, Hillsborough is one example of a well known and remembered occasion of the Sun publishing lies.

I'm not certain there will be more webcasts. I hope we do, but with the Sable acquisition and the last placing the focus looks to have shifted to appease IIs and large private investors. If they ask for a webcast I'm sure we'd get one, but otherwise we may not.

Also Lima Discovery/ Prospect (stacked) Gross Mean 376mbls

Uncertain what the amounts are for the Discovery and Prospect parts, but combined it looks like we might be able to say we have over 1B barrels gross classed as discoveries, rather than prospects. Maybe even over 1B net to us.

The market barely reacted when this was announced last year. But I would have thought it'd have a big impact on how the industry views the data, especially when preparing bids on a farmout and looking at drilling locations.

The historic wells may turn out to have more significance than currently recognised.

Portfolio Update 23rd Oct 2018:
http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02037520.pdf
"Significantly, each of these horizons has been penetrated by historic wells (most notably by Malguk#1:1991 and Heavenly#1:2002) on the Project Icewine acreage, proving the presence of oil saturated sandstones coincident with many of the mapped prospects, which consequently are regarded as discoveries in their own right."

Malguk#1 - Drilled by BP
Heavenly#1 - Drilled by Conoco (Phillips Petroleum)

Yes fair to say that a further update was hoped for by now.

But we will have at least the quarterly report by Wednesday.

ASX rule 5.4:
"An oil and gas exploration entity must complete a report concerning each quarter of its financial year and give it to ASX for release to the market. It must do so no later than 1 month after the end of the quarter......"
https://www.asx.com.au/documents/rules/Chapter05.pdf

It doesn't have to cover anything that's happened after end of June, so it may just repeat what we were told in the 26 June RNS. But uncertain why DW would be pushing it to a last minute release if theres no chance for any new update on whats happening with the Farmout by Wednesday.

Can't remember for certain on the timeline, but I think DW made the comment about the FO doing their own 3D before the farmout process was started, (and therefore before 3D analysis was complete). Things may have changed since then.

But we do know the majority of the acreage isn't covered. So if there's a deal that covers the whole acreage it might make sense to the farmout partner to 3D 100% of the acreage, instead of a new survey for 75% and use our 3D for the remaining 25%. Technology advances all the time, so doing it all in one go would ensure consistency.

Blingybird 22.26 - yes agree the last RNS was about as close possible to saying done deal without actually saying it.

My thoughts on why we’re still at 1p - no one has any idea what the deal is, who it’s with or how much it could be worth to us. What people do know is that we’ve had various setbacks and CRs in the past few years. For anyone not following closely it’s those setbacks and the dilution that will stand out, and probably lead to a view that we can’t be in a position to get a good deal.

Anyone that is following closely and has come to a different view has probably bought as many shares as they want (or can afford to risk). So there’s not any buying pressure to enable the price to move up.

I suspect not much will change until we have some answers, which could come at anytime.

Brom 17:16 - here's the link

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pnads/302300271.shtml

Interesting that Jade/Erik Opstad now has a deal with BP as well as Exxon. I wonder if all 3 of them are part of the discussions we're having about Yukon?

Interesting situation over at sports direct today (SPD). There's an example of a real delay to an actual date given to investors. Results were due a couple of weeks ago, but publication delayed until today. Now late in the afternoon on Friday and still no results.

Listed on the main market as well, not AIM.

11.25 - here's some concrete information for you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete

As for the farmout, if there was further information that could be released now, it would be released.

Just looking at some of the possible contenders for the Farm Out. Exxon, Shell and Conoco all have investor calls/webcasts scheduled for next week for Q2 earnings.

It might be a bit of a stretch to think our Farmout will be a big enough deal for any one of those to will be announcing it at their investor calls. I think it'd have to a be a big deal for them that they thought would excite investors, probably unlikely a farmout with a junior explorer would fit the bill.

But it does tell us that the key personnel at those 3 companies could be around next week to be performing corporate actions, such as signing off on deals.

Quarterly report could be anytime up to next Wednesday, 31st July. Not much has happened during that quarter, so wouldn't have thought that it'd involve much work to get it out.

So its possible DW is holding it back as he may not want to release any news at the moment that doesn't contain an update on the farmout.

Its that's the reason, then DW must be expecting some movement before next Wednesday.

Hopefully it will mean that there'll be new material for us to process and lengthen the life of our project, but will have to wait and see. Worst case scenario would be that we can't continue our operation at DCM. But since its our smallest operation and we've only enough material to run through the fine chrome circuit for a couple of years, and the PGM project still isn't off the ground it wouldn't be a serious loss.

Can't really give a realistic SP target without knowing what the deal is.

It could a deal that will pave the way for our conventional resource to achieve a decent value in either the short, medium or long term. It could be a deal that gives an instant substantial value to that resource. It could be a deal that somehow incorporates the HRZ as well. It could be a different type of deal to what anyone is expecting, or it might not be. And then theres the issue of how the market will react. If its something that is a more longer term plan than quick reward, will the market price it in when news hits or further down the line.

Agree with that Phrontist. If someone was to buy rather than farmout they'd have to pay a sum up front that DW finds agreeable, which could be substantial. They would then have 100% of the working interest, but also 100% of the risk and all future costs going forwards, which will run into $100's millions, if not more, for the exploration and development required.

By farming in they earn a proportion of working interest by carrying out and paying for the exploration work agreed on (and work that they'd have to pay for anyway if they bought it outright). But they save on the initial upfront purchase costs and share risk going forwards. No brainier really, and why its a model very commonly used.

Icewine 2 flowing wouldn't really have helped though, no matter what baker hughes said about it, and the conventional farmout would still be reliant on just seismic potential (plus the historic wells)

All proving the unconventional HRZ concept would do for the conventional farmout is confirm that there's oil in the region. But that's already known, its the north slope.

Islayman 15.07 - That would probably depend on the offer!

I think an offer would have to be much higher than the current price to be treated as a decent offer. The vast majority of shares are held by small individual PIs, many of whom will have averages much higher than the current price. Those at risk of losing money could be far more likely to vote than those who are content to take a small profit or walk away having broken even, so getting a 50% vote would be doubtful unless its a great offer.

Could someone making a takeover offer then justify to their own shareholders why such a large premium is being paid over our current market valuation?

However, all unlikely to happen imo. I think the more likely scenario is that we'll get the farmout news covering icewine conventional.

13.14 - yes any takeover offer would have to be put to shareholders to vote on. It would only require a simple majority of over 50% of votes to approve it, but it does need to be voted on.

Would be surprising if that was to happen at this stage, given that there has been no indication anything else other than Icewine conventional is being included in the negotiations.

11.26 - Don't know anything about that and what the potential is, but a quick scan of their latest interims perhaps shows how sentiment can play its part. Making a loss and net assests of £12m, but Mcap £200m+. Presumably its valuation is being supported by sentiment and a belief among investors that good things are going to happen.

Meanwhile here we are at £60m with billions of barrels of oil under our ground. The above shows its possible for our valuation to change with the right news improving the sentiment here.

Yes fair point brom :)

But in his interview after winx dw to mention something about future winx plans being dependent on funding.

Will wait and see what 88e say about it, but if it’s accurate then could be a good sign.

Not sure where rmp will get their share of costs though, Otto seem to have lost interest in the north slope for the moment, and I would have thought panr will be more focused on their other prospects. So could be some developments on the wi shares at winx sometime soon.