Member Info for moneyhawk

Guzz, I'm assuming the 500k has all ready been paid.

And according to the RNS,
"Exclusivity Fee non-refundable unless the farmout agreement is not finalised owing to an act or omission of the JV Parties"

So it is non-refundable unless the farm-out doesn't go through because we do something we're not supposed to do or because of something we haven't told them that leads to the deal falling through.

Could be. From the their last TR1 they had 111.5m shares, or 6.01%. It wouldn't take many shares being sold for them to go below 6%, so if it is them selling RNS will be on its way soon.

It is a bit quiet today, not much to do other than wait for the news.

Maybe will be some news around Prudhoe bay this week, possibly tomorrow, depending on any truth to the rumours of BP calling a meeting for their Alaskan employees.

Brom, thinking about the BP strategy I posted up yesterday and what has been said by DW, my guess is the 'monetisation' strategy for yukon is to coordinate with our yukon neighbours on how it can all be developed to share costs, and for that to be integrated into a development plan, possibly for a farmout. Especially bearing in mind that yukon was once considered stranded and uneconomical before the development at point thompson.

DW on Yukon:
"Discussions have been initiated by the Company with nearby lease owners to optimise the monetisation strategy for existing discovered resources located in the vicinity of the Yukon Leases."

BP approach:
"Right at the start, we study how much it would cost to develop a resource and whether it would be competitive in today’s world. We do not drill anything unless we have a concept for development that is viable - and economical."

Interesting piece about fake news and the effect it can have

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/26/can-fake-news-impact-the-stock-market/#6281a0c42fac

Bothwell 8.45 - Do you mean that he hasn't leaked any inside info to you, and thats what you're unhappy about?

I don't really understand why someone would be staying invested if they truly believed that news had leaked and its not a good deal for us. And why are the last 2 weeks relevant? The deal will have been in place for many months now, at least the key components anyway. Its not going to be signed off at board level if we hadn't agreed on costs, timescales, working interest etc. Those are the things the board will be concerned with, not all the technical and legal clauses in the contract.

Don't think we can read anything into BPs drop today. Shell has dropped even further at over 3%, so in comparison BP is holding up well. Only thing it really says to me is that both look more attractive today than they did yesterday for dividend yields.

9.15 - IF rumours of BPs prudhoe sale are true, perhaps the 3D was to inform their decision on whether to sell? Just making sure they haven't missed anything significant before moving on?

P14, the windsor PGMs may need revising. We don't know how much of the earnings we're actually getting. LC has said a 'majority', which could mean anything from 51% upwards.

Other than that, looks reasonable to me.

Seeing how the other projects have started and ramped up, we probably won't see positive earnings from Kabwe in Q4, but does depend on how soon into Q4 we start. Safer to start kabwe earnings in Q1 for estimates on earnings imo.

And then there's the big unknown at the moment, the copper. When will that start, where's the material coming from, and how much will it earn? They're saying H2 2019 for that, so anytime from now to the end of the year.

Looking through BPs website, this article may explain why its taken longer than DW expected (thinking about the weeks not months comment). BPs approach to exploration opportunities. It wouldn't be surprising if the other majors have adopted a similar approach, so this could maybe apply to all of them not just BP:

"We’re screening our exploration opportunities differently as well now.

Alongside our explorers, a team from our global projects organization gets involved much sooner than previously to understand if a discovery would fit our advantaged oil strategy. Right at the start, we study how much it would cost to develop a resource and whether it would be competitive in today’s world. We do not drill anything unless we have a concept for development that is viable - and economical."

About half way down:

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/bp-magazine/james-dupree-interview-bp-upstream-portfolio-advantaged-oil.html

Whatever is happening, it’s certainly an interesting coincidence that there’s rumours of a big deal about to be announced at the same time as we’re expecting news.

Just a thought, but if what they’re planning to tell employees is market sensitive, they’d need to tell the market first. Otherwise they’d risk big trouble if news leaked before the official market announcement.

They've also been selling assets to pay for their purchase of BHP assets. It may just be connected with that sale program. But we can hope.

The length of time its all been taking, and now an exclusivity agreement just for this month, does make you wonder that something bigger could be involved than just a deal on Icewine.

I've wondered the same thing Phrontist. Prudhoe bay is huge, but an ageing field and ageing infrastructure, and they've already had some problems with a few old wells and thawing permafrost. Selling off a mature field that could become problematic and start a new field may be their thinking. If they stay at Prudhoe bay, they may need to invest a lot, so why not invest it somewhere else that could have a longer life?

None of the rumours so far indicate BP is also planning to sell their share of the pipeline, so they would still have a big interest in northslope production even if they leave prudhoe bay.

Indeed there is a rumour that BP has called a meeting for Alaskan employees on 20th Aug:

https://mustreadalaska.com/bp-sale-rumor-surfaces-again-with-credibility/

Any relevance for us? We may find out next Tuesday.

Yes, it was March, following the winx drill. They kept a buy rating but reduced their target from 4.4p to 2.7p.

Not sure how they've calculated winx was worth 1.7p and Icewine plus Yukon is worth 2.7p. 144m barrels vs 2.2b barrels doesn't really fit with their valuation.

Even if we'd had a successful drill at winx, we still wouldn't have any cash to do anything about it. Maybe in that respect the winx failure has done us a favour, as its saved us from a placing that probably would have occurred with a stronger SP following drill results. Every cloud... :)

6.58 - I don't think that's what we would be waiting on. If our farmee wants the PANR acreage as well, it'd be a better move to wrap up our deal and then go to the next one, or potentially risk missing out on both. It can't have been their intention from the start to only farm in to our acreage if they can get PANR's as well at the same time, because they wouldn't have known PANR would definitely move to farm out.

Then the time scales, there's no chance PANRs farmout could be concluded by the end of the month, and our exclusivity agreement ends then.

Share buybacks and making a profit for a few years in a row have helped.

We’re a little bit behind in that respect, but with the earnings starting to come through and Kabwe coming on line we should be able to leapfrog them.

Yes, I suspect the exclusivity agreement was just a requirement of money being handed over.

Its difficult to guess on the reasons why its not been signed off yet. Could be anything. Most likely just lawyers doing their thing in slow motion.

It could even be connected with that rumour about BP/Conoco/Hilcorp and prudhoe bay that popped up last week in petroleum news. Perhaps we're in a chain of multiple deals across the north slope as all the players sort out their positions and long term plans. If that rumour has any connection or relevance to us, it had a date of mid-august for an announcement.