Member Info for Moleinahole

Saw all that on the site I had been pulling off the site some maps and other stuff was looking ideally for a map of the blocks that are in the round. I'll keep looking over the weekend was hoping someone had been on the site before and so I we where to look.
As I see it there must be some old blocks that are near and have stranded resource that the pipeline might now bring within reach. If they have good reserves then that combined with the other future phases should provide a longer return on the investments and so be very positive. Even if IOG don't get them others may need to use the pipe so a possible source of income.
Based on today's RNS would be some blocks with proven reserves not pure exploration.

Gold in current climate anything running to plan is a major achievement! You can't fault the project execution here at the moment. They are busy on multiple fronts keeping the contracted parties busy. Really don't understand the lack of trades - if UKOG or someone issued an RNS like that the posts and trades would run to pages. Harvey reprocessing would be a potential catalyst.

I went on the O & G site today to try and get a good view of near by blocks in 32nd license round. Its not easiest to use - has anyone else traversed the site to identify the nearby blocks?

Indeed. Progressing well given the strange circumstances and doing a great job in supporting suppliers in this tricky time. Q3 2021 seemed long way off a while back but the project is moving towards a period where there will be alot going on as we move to actually put infrastructure in the sea.

So off the radar - 5 trades after an RNS like that - but another 10,000 in the pot for me at 12.49p thanks to this 50k seller.

What are we missing here Peak? Equity being tightly held in the main by institutions, funded, progressing project on time, CalE as a partner. Can only think its the LOG factor.

Licensing round will be interesting do we know which blocks are up that are near by?

Tsbs - now your starting to think along the lines I am. I suspect the two issue here have become closely interconnected.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=96a18ebf-6b4c-40ab-866a-9f39067aae49

The solvency declaration was needed I think so that the liquidators appointed by Outrider could determine what sort of voluntary liquidation they were going to perform. I suspect because they have made it now court supervised they believe it to be doubtful or insolvent rather than be able to make the declaration of solvency. The court supervision has also enabled them to launch the discovery activity clearly aimed at the directors with a special interest in the asset transfer which we won't see much until it goes back to Cayman if at all. Alot here is now out of sight - but I would expect that FTI have a copy of the arbitration anyway.

Meanwhile the texas case to enforce the guarantees and the wider fiduciary case rumble on.

So as with the situation in Georgia someone with deep pockets is going to need to help sort this side of the battle unless they have evidence of wrong doing in which case Outrider will be at the receiving end of a massive costs and damages claim if proven.

ODR I share your general thoughts on this. Circumstantial evidence suggests even if you have not seen the circulating copy of the result a few pretty solid conclusions can be drawn or inferred.

1. Frontera attempt to use the study device to hold onto the block and not relinquish did not work. The 99% has been returned. Based on todays latest GOGC statement we retained a narrow par of the block around the producing wells around 0.84% of the block.

2. The status Quo had it not gone to arbitration would have been those exploitation areas carry on to end of PSA.

3. Unless the arbitration ruling has ruled that any finding against FRR did not constitute a material breach and could not be used to terminate then the right to terminate absolutely falls into the hands of the SAOG should the ruling have shown a breach. It is semantics to pretend otherwise - possibly Zaza position. That is however the position of the GG side. The ruling has on the balance of probability given them the option of terminating. If the substantive matter was the exploration areas then return of those was the opportunity to move on and repair the breach.

4. According to comments from GOGC/SAOG and their lawyers the arbitration also tested and found the transfer to be invalid. That is the most important item that the company needs to address.

The GG now are offering FRR the chance to carry on extracting in a greatly reduced block. Someone asked what do FRR need?

Well I would suggest if the transfer is not complete then that is a priority item FRR need. With that they have something to work with to find finance to resolve the FTI activities and something to offer an investor.

GG clearly want FRR to stop attacking the business environment and lobbying against the government and to pay the workers. To do that FRR need to be able to unfreeze any bank accounts and resume oil sales and probably write off the vat against the arbitration costs.

If FRR still have partners on hand then they need to bring them back. Here is where the problem becomes political. Having said the environment and govt are terrible how do you do that this side of an election? Meanwhile loan notes are falling due in full not the defaulted interest. That is the challenge here navigating through the two destructive pieces of litigation. Is the PSA now long enough?

I am more than happy to repeat what I post here on email, phone or face to face to Zaza. However, unusual the circumstances I find it even stranger that the company has made no efforts (none at all) to inform or carry the shareholders with them. On that I'll just have to say I fundamentally disagree with those who think that is not a major problem.
The company has always been political but in all the years I have been here I never expected to see the company attempting to directly confront the government that controls its license in this way or find the principle asset subject to a disputed liquidation/asset transfer.

Prod - the simple answer to your question is that nobody really knows yet. I'm not sure they would do things that differently however. Their standard response is to be litigious and combative and that goes back as far as the Azer period. Maybe it's the American way of doing business. But alot of the issues go back to persistent failure to produce oil from the drilling campaigns combined with not eliminating the loan note debt in 2010. But then Steve held alot of the paper. That predates the current govt.
If there was strong evidence to support obstruction it would have been pleaded at the arbitration. If it wasn't then it was negligent not to have done so. So we will see if they now publish the arbitration. It's FRR who are holding that back so I would suspect whatever was put forward the GG obviously are not too worried about.
In terms of the arbitration itself actually yes I do. I think they have been opportunistic but I haven't seen anything yet that backs up the claims the company has been materially obstructed. Have you?
And no you can't trust any govt even our own here! But they are not stupid and would have been well aware of Frontera connections if they have been obstructive. The one area I would pinpoint is whether we have been blocked on the old mineral license from the deeper gas again that would predate current govt and possibly a reluctance to reissue the license in 2017 to enable exploration to continue. But to be fair after 20 years it was incumbent on FRR to show some credible financed plans.
Finally I wouldn't get hung up on the 99% Vs 1%. The exploitation areas were never in question until the dispute really escalated post Nov 2017 but unless the arbitration explicitly addressed termination as Zaza claims then I've seen enough of the actual PSA now in documents on the company register and elsewhere to be worried about the consequences of material breach. The trap for Frontera now is ok off you go remploy the staff and where's your funding to settle debts and do some exploration.
It gives me no pleasure to be watching current events unfold. But I think it's a mistake to try and label the GG and Outrider as the bad guys so must be wrong as I think the situation here is more nuanced than that. They all have their faults.
How comfortable you are watching this unfold Ex might depend on the level of potential losses you face. Personally my expectation is I have lost a substantial sum of capital and any result since dec 2018 here is a unexpected windfall. I'm sure I'm not alone in that.

Pjohn I have indeed in the past supported him and the company 100% and very strongly but right now he has decided to go this totally alone without consulting at all with shareholders. Last successful contact I had was late aug 2019 when trying to broke contact with the FSHG. From that date on events have escalated with the company being pulled apart by the two pieces of litigation.
My support is not totally blind and unconditional though. I fundamentally disagree with the course being taken using litigation both involving the GG and Outrider. You won't find any posts where I think they were a good idea from day 1. As we are suspended and have no company meetings and no right to call one we are all stuck.
If he actually responded to the very reasonable approaches he has had from shareholders my tone today would be different. He has not and continues to go it alone without any accountability to shareholders in prosecuting this course of action. I may be many things but I am a strong believer in minority shareholder rights in all companies I invest in and find it impossible to defend what I am currently seeing particularly as given the gravity of the situation we are having to follow events from court documents and now translated media interviews. Maybe I'll stop posting for a while and watch it all unfold.

Bit comes out each time. Perhaps the aggressive response after the olive branch of the blink by GG was not such a good idea if they have reserved the notice possibly as a further ramping of pressure by GG to shut up or they publish the arbitration and run the clock down on the termination. They are hardly likely to register the transfer in current climate. I hope Zaza knows what he is doing here because he has not furnished any evidence from his side of the argument yet and simply shouts foul and make it a political matter. Meanwhile GOGC and the state agency are following a methodical legal plan to close this out.
Ultimately if relations have so broken down that they only talk in the press then it isn't going to get resolved.
Going to come to a head very soon and from what I've seen so far I don't think this is heading in the right direction.

Looed the GG are playing it well. They intend to stop the politics by officially publishing what I think has already informally been leaked anyway. Couple of things that stick out. The GOGC seem to be drawing a distinction between the company and the executive management - in the main I think that is employees. That is a similar distinction Hope makes when he calls Zaza and Steve rogue directors. Once the GG backed down I would have liked to see FRR executive management shut up their public political comments for a bit and work out what to do next - I really don't understand why its a good idea to carry on poking the bear. As folk can tell from my previous posts I'm inclined to believe in this case the GG position on the broad arbitration outcome - and the position in that last statement is exactly how I understand the PSA. If it was not bad for FRR they would have found a way to publish it.
On the other note from GG side I noted the fields but what caught my eye was the comment on the depth. Maybe the current mineral license does not permit us to go for the deep gas and oil?
Difficult few weeks coming up now as this battle enters its next and decisive phase I think.

Looed on the insurance the best place to look is the hiscox policy. I think it's a fairly standard one and you can see what is normally covered the court doc said what the policy was called. The policy will most likely cover just the director being litigated against. So in the case with FRR having started it which is unusual as cases like this are normally brought by disgruntled shareholders. The arbitration dispute could have qualified for some cover but that depends totally on the cover.
In terms of work or not in the block. I think exploration has been pretty much zero by frontera but it's possible they have been sharing the data and others have still been looking. They won't have stopped the wells but they might have had to choke right back if they have no means of export if the rail link has been stopped. I thought I saw something was it GG which said a creditor was after the pipeline. Again hard to tell but we only have the one gas pipeline ir mtsare. So that would be a concern if assets like the gas station and its kit is at risk. The unemployed workers will be in the main the maintenance guys and drivers. The head office staff from what we could see on the linked in posts appear to have been massively reduced. So I'm puzzled how we are paying anything at the moment. The us lawsuit in Houston for office services is another example. The company must be virtually Zaza on his own at the moment.
So no all the evidence points to the company being paralysed by the 2 disputes.
To restart and survive requires either a significant transaction (farmin or same) or an injection of funds from an investor or bank.
Would you loan FRR $60m at the moment as that is the sort of sums we need.
Outrider could be persuaded to roll over debt but I doubt it when they have set FIT off to appropriate the asset in a liquidation. So the FTI situation now needs resolving else the company is irretrievably insolvent.
I'll keep to that line till I can see how they can resolve that. Hopefully they have so etching to tempt someone else I simply can't see how they carry on and the company will implode leaving alot of creditors out of pocket in a firesale.
So the event I'm now watching for is movement in the US court cases or the Georgian company register.

Ex whilst its hard to be sure of anything the way events unfolded since 2018 leads me to the view that FRR have been on the wrong side of the arbitration ruling and I suspect very likely showed that not returning the bits after Nov 2017 was a material breach. Not paying the tiny mineral license as a tit for tat on the vat was also not a good idea. I find Levan exiting when he did very telling in that regard. If it was all fine he would still be here as he was in large part the architect of the various streams of litigation.

That relations broke down as they have is and still is the problem.
The decision to then go after frontera was a political one and forced frontera to fight a political campaign in response.

Where we are now opens a window of opportunity where the company needs to navigate through the next very tricky bit. The company has been seriously damaged since Oct 2018. Outrider needs sorting and we have costs from the arbitration to pay plus it seems we may be producing next to nothing in Georgia either because we have no staff or alleged actions by the GG.
As we remain unlisted and with only 1bn shares in treasury that could be issued the only realistic option is to borrow if we can or get a large injection of cash via a farm in partner. Maybe the vat gets written off for the costs?
The company need to stop the politics and deliver an action plan to shareholders to explain what they intend to do to address the obvious cash issues.
If they don't then this will end up with frontera bankrupted by one or more creditors.
My own view remains the GG are a nuisance at times but frontera real problems come from a failure of exploration to deliver commercial production that can sustain the level of debt the company has run up. To have spent $500m and to be producing next to nothing might excite Steve N as he hopes the next round of exploration will unlock the geology but the harsh reality that a small indebted exploration company cannot carry on doing that. That has to change. So I'd like to see next move by FTI and the asset move resolving but if they don't have a partner in the wings or access to a large loan to replace Outrider loan notes and fund the first stage of a campaign in the field then the underlying problems remain. This will turn out to be a pyric victory if the company remains paralysed.

Europa - I dread to think what the last 2 years has done to the looks of some here let alone Steve. Thanks Oopsi for that. Interesting attempt to understand the story here in a page - but doesn't come close to the full story and the truth may be even stranger. Well looks like we still have post oak blvd as an office - had wondered if we had given up lease. Empty as usual but Steve posing in front shows he's still around fronting up in US with Zaza in Georgia presumably.
The question is will Outrider back off or not and give them a chance having on the face of it gone nuclear with the US congressional allies to give them the space to make either a deal or the next run at the field? Strange to have Hope rep commenting and article neglecting to mention the fiduciary case! It really needs some cool heads now but how much goodwill is left here they have tested all their stake holders patience beyond breaking point and do we still have potential backers? Surprised story hasn't yet attracted more mainstream press - in an election year may be a matter of time before the story starts to get wider cover now.

Mills Directors Liability cover is for just that type of fiduciary duty eventuality. The company in its broadest sense would be taking action against the director not Steve and Zaza in their capacity as Directors. I don't think the insurers are happy about it hence the litigation Outrider needed to take to enforce cover.

Pophead - Looed has posted links on the litigation Outrider took against the insurers to ensure the cover was honoured. Hope has access to insurance via a Hiscox policy taken out by FRR for all its directors and Outrider took a separate one with another provider to cover him as a director as well. So they seem to have dual coverage to split the costs. So yes I think he has had access to funds to burn on parts of the litigation that doesn't cost him anything. That is unlikely to cover him if he loses - and in addition we can't be sure of the limits of cover in the policy. But it explains why he was not forced to the table early on in 2018/19 and instead went to court aggressively in Cayman - meanwhile FRR were struggling to actually pay their own counsels fees.

Ziggy - the ownership is fundamental. Control of that legal entity holds the purse strings of the only real asset and the standing to manage/dispose of it. Outrider based on the 2017 bankruptcy case commentary tried to broker a deal to sell the asset to a company who happen to have also done work for SAOG in Georgia. FTI should be independent but Outrider had been funding their costs. I do wonder if it is FTI who have been chucking spanners in the works (freezing accounts etc) along with other creditors In Georgia as much as the GG - we know there are charges on some assets from the company registry documents most likely mortgages. But FRR have >$20m of debtors apart from Outrider loan notes - so FTI will be under pressure from all creditors and its possible the GG are one as well depending on how you interpret the arbitration costs - they could now be a liability of the entity FIT may be liquidating if its not FR US.
I wish all the main protagonists would sit down and sort it out but I think we seem to be beyond that point - FRR and the GG have been at each other now since 2016.
Ex - No I don't understand Zaza latest comments in English either. Like kids in a playground - would be funny if it wasn't so serious. I tend to think he means the litigation was a waste of everyones money as they should have just let Frontera get on with it.

Tsbs as I posted yesterday I' m very wary of the latest developments. Alot depends on who you believe but I tend to place greater weight on verifable information and over the past two years that has been from documents that form part of the litigation. The area that gives me he greatest concern at the moment (and I have many) is the status of transfer. I have just been on the registry site and the process remains terminated. Depending on whether you believe the leaked arbitration documents or not it seems pretty clear that the transfer formed part of the arbitration. The dates tend to tie in with the registry entries. As of today he transfer was not completed on the Georgian side you seem to have an odd legal position in that the asset has been transferred internally in Frontera to FR US but the actual asset remains on the Georgian side assigned to a subsidiary of an entity now controlled by the Liquidators.
The comments by the minister yesterday don't fill me with a great deal of confidence that what could now be happening is that the GG are going to leave the dismantling of Frontera to the liquidation process initiated by Outrider.
The liquidator could now have an asset close at hand to work with a sale beyond the control of Steve and Zaza.
Once that happens Hope and Outrider might be banking on the california litigation folding if Fontera can't fund it.
The comments again yesterday that indicated Frontera may be being embargoed or unable to make oil sales simply adds to the perplexity I have as to how they are still standing. It may be that once you owe alot of money creditors are afraid to fold the company. So while the arbitration events draw to a conclusion the focus turns back to the US. If there is real tangible evidence against Hope and Outrider that can be made to stick then the damages now will be immense. Hence, I would expect them to continue to weaken Frontera and most likely see if the company can survive long enough to complete the litigation. Unfortunately with Outrider and Hope having access to insurance to defend the case and if Frontera are squeezed financially then it will be interesting to see how we would fund a robust legal team - no win no fee maybe.
I'd be wary of an alliance between FTI and the GG here to execute a dispossession through the courts, take the vat, pay the workers, place the asset with a state friendly company and hence avoid the political storm because it was done by US based liquidators at arms length. This could happen before the election ever comes into play.
That's what I would do if I was a Georgian politician. As for Zaza in that position I'd do what he is doing now make alot of noise but how you get round the liquidator if you don't control the company involves probably persuading them leaving the asset with FR US is a better return for creditors than selling to someone else in a fire sale.
The status of the asset transfer is now critical whether FRR go it alone, sale or farmin pa

If a termination notice has been issued and it applies to the block then unless it's withdrawn or challenged in court which you would think you would have to at least lodge proceedings before that date expires then it runs it's course and the contract will terminate.
That will be the default position. These are legal formalities and politics should not have any impact on that process.
Can this get punted down the road as late as October? I'm not so sure given the noise generated by Zaza that will be allowed to happen. 3 months is a long time to have to keep this spinning unresolved.
Meanwhile once we have no producing asset and given some of Zaza press comment it's not clear if we are producing at the moment it's a mystery how the company is not insolvent now. So it's likely they are getting some income but post 27th July that could all stop at which point it's not clear how the company functions to fight even the Outrider case.
So clock continues to run down if its unresolved then the next news we might get would more likely be either GG putting the block back for auction, enforcement by GG to get their costs back from arbitration and or activity in the US cases once the asset in dispute is lost.
Even excluding Outrider Frontera has $20m of other creditors which will range from banks to service providers and unpaid employees and I'll bet directors 'loans (their salary)'. No income will bring that to a head pretty quickly.
I'd expect to hear nothing but I wouldn't read that as a good result. We need the company to make a formal statement to shareholders but they have chosen to disregard the company articles over the past 2 years so would expect total silence to carry on. For those who think they need to do that while the battles are fought I disagree. The failure to follow basic norms since 2018 shows how desperate the situation must be and how low down the priority the shareholders are. Any turnaround from here will require a significant event to occur. Would not rule one out given the politics and intrigue but the odds are against one.

The people who have lost with Frontera are the investors. To the tune of $500m+. That list includes shareholders and bondholders - including Outrider who probably wish they had never tried to engineer a takeover here now by buying distressed debt. However, the $500m had hansomely lined the pockets of employees (till the coffers were empty at end of 2018), contractors, financiers (including YA) and professional advisers from Nomads to auditors and competent persons. Then it has provided a mechanism for shorters and the prophets of doom to profit.
The other big loser to date has been the Georgian state and hence its people. Whilst I suspect Zaza has little choice now but to fight a political battle this is not where we should be.
I have to say we have not seen the big reveal of the alleged interference and obstruction of operations by the GG yet. If such obstruction had occurred the place to argue was at the arbitration.
Whilst we can't be sure of all the circumstances around the arbitration Fronteras problems have in the main revolved around securing funds to drill the deeper wells and that in itself has been due to geology not in my opinion the GG obstruction. Georgia Dream are a recent phenonemon and whilst clearly via their leader having a closer association to Russia than the former UDM party would ever have contemplated its my opinion that the GG are being opportunistic in mugging Frontera via the arbitration having taken advantage of the weakness the company has endured since 2008 financial crisis and subsequent difficult commodity investment climate in small oil and gas. That is why we have not been able to explore to retain the 99%.
The other loss is potentially a political one. If you are going to play on the stage of international politics then it would be advisable to be operating in a well structured and disciplined fashion. For me Frontera has deviated from the path they should have been following. What should have happenned is that the investment in political and financial contacts should have resulted both in robust hands off support from US and either a significant funding offer from friends or insititutions sympathetic to the underlying objectives in Georgia or investment from a major. To date that has not happenned and Frontera as the finance remained tight instead came to rely on us - the small PI investors to keep them going.
The problem is that the Nov 2017 date and the other PSA dates have long been known. We find ourselves now 12 days from probable termination of the license of the company only real asset and still fighting our bondholder in court in US.
That is possibly our best avenue for recovering funds - but it turns out the company own insurance policy is being used to fund Outriders and Hopes defence!
If there is to be another act or an encore to this show then its fast approaching a moment of truth.

Peak the trades have been thin for months.
No major sells or buys in value or volume. Hence spread is defensive - they aren't trying to make a market at all presumably busy elsewhere where the traders are. Because we were already at the bottom end pre covid due to placing/restructure and inconclusive Harvey results (and maybe fear of what LOG administrators might do let alone the scars of the association with that lot!) - the shares are in sticky hands and its flat.
What will be interesting is what happens if a bit of volume is injected here. Any institution who wants volume would go and see the LOG administrators for a chunk. What happenned to their orderly disposal. They seem to be sitting on them hence with limited buyers and sellers we have this steady base around 12p.
I keep having a look in the kitty to see if I can put a bit in this month earlier as I don't see this staying becalmed for too long. RRE take out shows an offer remains a possibility here and could come out of the blue.

Peak not saying they shouldn't blow the trumpet (a bit) but not surprised they are not at the moment that's what I mean. Its actually a good sign I think at the moment as I think they are just getting everything lined up. Excessive trumpeting on shares normally results in placings! In this case while the board/management are building up a bit of an equity position with the deferred remuneration the rest of the project for the moment is funded. I haven't looked but has there been any commentary at all from the CalE side recently?

I think a refresh of the likely timelines and milestones here might help give the quiet period a bit of context.

Peak this lull in comms while the share remains a bit unloved I've been putting small buys in every month as I build up my position and continue to lower average and head towards my new planned target holding .

Whilst its nice to get news and there really is no reason not too be a bit more forthcoming - the reality for PI investors is that the share register has changed to a mainly institution base. With funding in place and Cal E as a partner they don't need to blow the trumpet. But the award of contacts so far shows they are working behind the scenes.

Hawk - the fund raise to bail the company out was absolutely needed - I don't think it was to block RRE. We never got a proper offer on the table from RRE and I would think with hindsight now it is pretty clear CalE and the LOG administrators must have been close to an agreement but that both needed the company recaptalised to agree. Cal E as a partner or a low ball offer seems to have been the decision. LOG administrators want better than 20p a share - they see multiples of that which they need to have any chance of LOG investors seeing a reasonable return. I would agree the finances should not have got to the point that LOG could take the company down but I think the company has moved on from that episode and success for IOG now means success for LOG investors as well as the good news story that IOG are investing in UK Oil and Gas development at this time. The raise was unfortunate but I think absolutely necessary as without it I don't think we would have survived and our investment could have been destroyed in a fire sale.

Lets see what happens with the licensing round and whether we can pick up something else to plug into the hub and the final analysis of the Harvey drilling could yet turn out better than originally reported. Either way the share price remains well below its prospective value and the low and stable daily volume indicates that the buyers from the recapitalisation and LOG admin are holding over this period and provide a solid support at this price. Anyone who wants to bid now for LOG will have to pay alot more than what RRE had in mind.