Member Info for Moleinahole

Yes that is indeed a possibility but I think unlikely. Again if there were groups with an equity interest that well connected the fiduciary related cases should never have got to where they have. The point I'm making is there have been no recognisable corporate investors out in the open other than bucket lenders for many years. That is unusual and shows how low FRR had fallen that they had to rely on PI holders to fund the strategic development of Georgia to hold back Russian imperialism.

You never know what might be round the corner as well!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/premier-oil-is-said-to-hold-early-talks-on-deal-with-chrysaor

The other risk DELTIC will run is that they don't find farm in partners or they don't go to production. There are already alot that have exited north sea and Premier look in trouble still - if they did merge to get out of trouble then the trend is one of consolidation.

Merging smaller operators also makes sense - but what you really need is commitment to develop. Even IOG have found CalE a bit non committal on some of the assets. IOG being in a subset of working the smaller assets profitably is a different model to exploring for a large exploration win.

But if the book was not squared off (I think it must have been) who was lending shares. If there were no TR1's then it had to be the nominees holding PI shares or MM took positions. Interesting idea about the lack of certificates (while since we have debated this area! Because we have no registrar thats the cause but pure speculation its part of a wider plan to lock the share register. The main reason I attribute is we couldn't afford to pay them and secondly if Hope got his 500m shares off Steve and Zaza he couldn't do anything with them either! The effect has been to freeze everyone as at Christmas 2018 until the mess is sorted out. But yes there are undoutably some people on the short side who got trapped. Whether they still are I have my doubts on that.

Agree with that - it all kicked off in aug/sept in the run up to that interest default event (which no one knew about). Some people were definitely short and a short squeeze then occurred made all the more acute after the unexpected majors under NDA RNS and then the further rise after the Oct share holder meeting. All gone badly wrong since then......we had no idea then about the arbitration situation or the mortgage terms.

Cancelled trades - another of the red flag events.
I've seen them on a few shares since but nothing like we saw 2016 to 2018 on FRR.
They seem to be some sort of transfer between brokers/MM but yes they are unexplained as well. Something to do with CFD trading would be my best guess. I know some people think they could be one of the smoking guns of Outrider but seems more like YA to me and whatever they were up to - including the attempt to get their remaining balance out in Q3 2018 by forward selling shares they hadn't had allocated yet before the interest default. The other smoking gun event people like to speculate about.

Yes the great unexplained II count mystery - a chapter in FRR folk law I had forgotten till today - on a par with the great satelite hunt for activity in block 12, the pumps are coming saga and our new ones of tracking Georgian media and Court cases on pacer in 2016 and now 2020. We traced those movements at the time and you could recognise YA activity on the months they sold at times - so it detected those. But outside that it got vague and we didn't see movements when things like the new institutional investor arrived. I came to the conclusion those classifications were not reliable or not recording what people thought. We absolutely know where alot of the shares are from people here, in FSHG (past and present) and the board (there is a rump that could hide someone but it seems unlikely and certanly no TR1's!). There has never been any evidence of a large corporate holder since the last ones (DDJ and either YA or Outrider I think) exited on the pipeline spike - apart from YA holding for about 5 mins each month in 2017 to 2018 before pre-selling!
I really think we have been left in the dark, holding the paper and invited to wait.

MP - the primary bid investor had a lock in which conveniently expired around the time of the interest falling due. We then had regular large daily trades as someone exited a position around that time. We also had the promise dangled of an investor in the next well - decision due Nov 2018. That was followed by dangling the New York fund into DEc 2018 terms of that are unknown but seemed to be a bond and as they fought Outrider that seems to have fallen through - but maybe they came back in 2019 (who knows as the company have not even told us officially they transferred the asset let alone farmed it out or went for a license in Ukraine over the same period as advancing litigation with Outrider and the GG and then axing most of the staff) . So at the time of delist there were none above 3% and I would guess none in total. That is unusual. FRR appears to be owned by Steve/Zaza and PI holders.

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MT - no I'm not against it in principle. I'm against bigging up DELTIC and paying too much for it.

If the two merge then combining IOG operational excellence in delivery and project management and DELT prospective assets makes alot of sense.
But I see it as a merger not a takeover if it happense to build a wider coalition of IOG (enlarged), CalE and Shell.
The issue I have is that in the short term just as we are progressing and lanquishing shareprice wise because of LOG and the decision to dillute P holders and let institutions in I don't want a second dillution and added risk at this time.
Personally I'm gradually rebuilding my portfolio after some huge losses in O & G over last 2 years so I'm pretty risk averse at the moment. I can see the advantage of reserves but I happen to think IOG don't need to jump at first opportunity as others will come along in the changing economic climate of brexit, covid and climate change.
If the price is right a deal makes sense but I really don't want to see IOG giving away short term value creation again to subsidise DELT own weak share price.
Hence I look at the relative risked NAV to price it and things like such a person bought at 3p does not cut it. They bought at a time when the world was a different place. So they not IOG have to choose whether to go along as they are or join a wider and bigger UK based operation. The 3p guy seems to be a conservative grandee so you would think he would want to see a bigger operation actually creating jobs like IOG are doing by developing fields.
So my view is if they want to join an exciting emerging event like the new hub using the reinstated Thames pipeline and facilities then fine. But the price has to be realistic else IOG should wait as I'm sure opportunities will emerge.
However, what I think doesn't matter as this will be decided by the likes of CalE, Lombard and the LOG administrators on IOG side and by the sounds of it Shell and your 3p man on the other.

The other angle on scam company is that its a front for the CIA!

Well FRR was absolutely set up with some broad political objectives in the post soviet era by Bill White and with some very well connected people with undoubted links in the the defence and intelligence community. FRR up until very recently aligned itself with Atlantic Council.
Personally my view is that FRR remains a soft economic vehicle for US and western interests and clearly is able to still command a level of political support - though it seems we have to pay lobbying now which in the past was not the case. As a US entity is naturally provides opportunity to bring contractors in and out of the country. Its recent overt political involvement is something totally new.

Its that political dimension which makes the goings on with Outrider all the more strange. You would think if FRR had some friends that little matter would have been sorted out.

So my considered view is that FRR corporate troubles have weakenned the level of support they would otherwise have received. Friends should have made refinancing $30m of loan notes easy to arrange and you would not expect to see your chairman a member of the US chamber of commerce hiding in his house to avoid receiving a court summons.

Maybe FRR still have friends and it will all work out fine in the end. The FRR story is like nothing I've ever seen or hope to see again.

Frontera is not a scam company.

What it is however is a good example of what happens when you don't manage your balance sheet and cash and drill without creating enough revenue to pay your bills.

Eventually when you exhaust the ability to get further money from shareholders or loans from the bottom tier of lenders (like YA) and find yourself being preyed on by distressed debt specialists like Outrider. Looking back now of all the red flags we have had the absence of any corporate investors on the share register is the biggest single one. I think those corporate bonds were a large reason for that.
The company is "owned" by Steve, Zaza and a collection of about 1 to 2000 PI holders. If there were corporates involved you would not delist or keep silent for 2 years.
The bit that has the appearance of a "scam" is the period after 2016. That period when the bonds were rolled over and the final run up to the end of exploration license funding has occured with the ever evolving terms of the notes, actual production and the arbitration concealed. That period enabled YA to extract its locked in loans via equity picked up by PI holders who have now been left holding it as the dispute with Outrider post the interest falling due in sept 2018 resulted in the 2nd attempt to void or rollover the notes (don't forget the first attempt was in 2016 with the liquidation) through the fiduciary action.
So its not a "scam" - there is actually a real company. But what has happenned is PI investors have been left trapped by the sequence of events that has unfolded - the sudden resignation and suspension of the nomad that fateful christmas eve meaning you only had the Friday afternoon when Star rage posted about the court papers to try and exit.
Others clearly knew about those papers or more of what was going on before that and they were clearly able to take advantage both by exiting holdings and/or taking short positions to hedge.
It is those who had trusted the boards words that have been left holding the paper. Which is why I'm so frustrated and annoyed at 2 years of non communication.
Unfortunately because there aren't an large corporate holders I fear we are probably deemed expendable which I think further fuels the frustration.
Its not a scam but it is a text book case of the dangers of lax regulation on AIM.

Yes but is DELT the only license holder in the SNS? Hence on this occasion why I've been looking at stranded gas from threddlethorpe closure as one option. I would rather be in IOG position of holding a fully funded phased project for 8 years than DELT still in a prospective phase with no concrete plans beyond waiting on Shell to drill for them still waiting on the major dillution that will come in funding a field development. Given the lack of drilling in the North Sea over the past 18 months and low gas prices opportunities will open up as players exit and relinquish. DELT may find themselves this time next year sat waiting and still with no drill if they have no appetite or capacity to do it themselves. Meanwhile 1 year from now with fair wind we should be ready for switch on.

Well said sir! Both Skipper and Harvey are important lessons in what can happen in oil and gas exploration in the North Sea and Deltic shareholders I think need to be realistic. I see the 3 to 3.5p is again justified because someone invested at that price last year. I doubt he's that daft and the opportunity to be onboard with a company backed by CalE will have an attraction I'm sure. A rain check on what has happened in last year and what might yet happen with covid and brexit. The valuation point has to be the risked relative asset valuations not a historic share price - if it was a cash offer then that makes sense but not an all share offer. There is also the small matter of IOG being fully funded and close to cash generation on its assets so there is a time value of money.
I stand by my numbers and if an offer comes in I think they will pitch under 3p - I reckon its at 2.2p so a bit of a premium say 2.5p. Lombard hold at 9% Delt as well so they are a factor holding the huge pile they have here already plus on IOG side LOG and CalE as stakeholders.
Delt have played one of their cards today and share price reaction was muted which would have been noted.

I spent a bit of time today looking at Threadlethorpe closure. While doing that came across a good article on IOG - link:
https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/upstream/exploration-production/2020/iog-breathes-new-life-into-sns

Thanks for that. It's why you should be transparent in RNS and post full information you shouldn't have to cross check the OG website! To me that tells alot about the Deltic board. Not sure I'd want them on any combined board from what I've seen so far.
So not so bad but still all needs paying for and those prospects are many years from development by the sound of it. Deltic has risen on deal fever but the gravity of reality will keep pulling it back to earth and without an offer will be interesting to see how they hold up. If IOG don't intend to then I'd leave them stewing right to the end to ponder. Meanwhile IOG can crack on with implementing phase 1.
Someone leaked this out early and IOG are pretty tight ship from past experience.

Expo - as I posted other day our CEO knows all about Breagh.

If they have committed drill or drop Deltic shareholders better have deep pockets or have a firm 3rd party commitment in current climate there is very little drilling at the moment.
I find it odd to not have been transparent in the RNS and report both the prospect and the commitment.

Gold I'm actually quite encouraged by that RNS and the non mention of the matter of the hour.
Oil riches IOG most definitely do not need Deltic either. A mutually agreeable acquisition maybe but IOG I think are not going to overpay. We are close to a producing asset hub and destiny is in her hands. Deltic is 100% relying on others and in current climate that is uncertain.
That RNS and it's timing was an attempt to prop up the share price. It does look like IOG will not overpay and would walk away which suits me as an IOG investor.

Yes tell about the prospect without actually reporting the commitment they have to fulfill and some time after the award.
Ultimately Deltic shareholders if they want to go it alone will have to give alot away as we have had to do to fund exploration and development.
Wonder what they promised to do to secure licenses!

In a deal involving paper they are not going to get an offer at full NAV! I did fag packet calcs and I reckon 2.2p is where they are at personally and that is being generous.

The point is both parties can walk away. But I really do think it benefits DEL more than IOG (they won't see it that way mond!). We could get left with their commitments and shell delay either drilling or future FDP. So really do think it has to be a buyers market as if gas prices stay low then the assets could be sat around waiting future development.

Bada from what I read whilst you have £12m cash if shell drill how much of that is restricted? It looked like the carry was 75% up to a set amount if they drill - so 25% presumably comes from DEL? IOG would not be able to get out of that commitment if Shell drilled so say it cost £20m then £5m would be committed. And then how to fund your share of the the next bit.
IOG have done this already. Don't know what the burn rate just on G & A expense but millions can go very quickly as we have seen here.
If they don't drill then you have some licenses with no means to fund their exploration commitments without more than £12m - which does not go far offshore and then the G & A starts to eat up your pot.

Bada having assets and having the funds and route to market and to develop them are two different things. As you enter a period of uncertainty capital budgets will remain tight - even for companies like Shell. I would say its less Mark's past connections with Shell than his experience of execution of fields in same area that's the key connection. The fact we don't need DEL but would absorb them at the right price is why I suspect Deltic share price today has not kicked on after Friday's burst. I really do think it looks the other way round DEL would benefit from the IOG board experience of execution and knowledge of assets in area.
Looking at the deltic board this morning alot thought they would be shooting fish in a barrel today - but in my opinion this offer if it went ahead would not be about the price today but the logic of combining the two businesses and then moving the larger enterprise forwards. I think the larger corporate investors would see that. No one should be over paying for assets in the current market - it should be a buyers market.