Member Info for Moleinahole

Ears - what other "pending claims are they involved in" - are they also the counsel for the fiduciary case? They make the point they represent Frontera and their representation is through Frontera - so yes Zaza no longer associated is an interesting turn of phrase. Is this another litigation funded by the insurance policy? Following on from Levan mystery departure in 2019 - we don't have much of the top team left.
But they seem to still have the Texas action in play - did you check the follow on expedite entry? I can check later if need be. But we have now lost the CEO (who in my opinion was really over playing whatever hand he had) - hence the Georgian side goes silent. I'll check the Georgian company register again later as that is the other place we may see some information emerge and double check company articles now we are down to just a chairman and an other director.
Epic tale of intrigue this - a small wager to play in the game would make it interesting. Unfortunately is way more interesting than I would like with a large stake.

....and today the price is hovering just over 1p - so its lost 4/5ths of its value. Consider that. What would happen to DELT if Shell defer drilling or drill a duster and then stop? Consider that. Spike was obviously the right word for DELT shareprice in Feb 2018. Today its sept 2020 and 2 months off a likely disastrous Brexit and in the middle of a global pandemic where commodity prices are uncertain. You then have whatever Trump cooks up with China and Iran to factor in.
There is no way in my opinion either LOG admin or Lombard would contemplate over paying for DELT at this time. The attraction of IOG is that its already fully funded and under way to be operational in a year. It matters not what DELT supporters think its worth - its about balancing risk. At the right price its attractive enough - the current DELT shareprice drifting back reinforces that view that paying a silly price is not what is going to happen. If its too high - they should just walk away. As an IOG shareholder I'm happy with that - the next year could be brutal in the markets.

In spite of the danger of starting the debate all over again.....I hope we all agree that as we approach 2 years since the fateful date the interest fell due saying absolutely nothing in that period is really unacceptable. I'd be pleased to hear someone try to defend that.

Prior to the promotion of the company in 2017 to fund the last drilling campaign - the company were bad communicators. We got RNS often reduced to the cut and paste spot the difference quarterly RNS as they really weren't doing much particularly after the Varang mysterly farmout vanished into thin air without any explanation to be followed by a 2 heavy dillutions to pre-fund service providers and shallow exploration in taribani and then the 2017 restructure.

There have been events like the bid for Ukraine licenses which could have been at least mentioned to the owners of the company as they are nothing to do with the other issues and are not even secret.

Looking at whats going on since 2015 its been all about Outrider and since 2017 about getting out of the mess the debt restructure has caused. The issue is not securing a partner on the assets or sufficient production to pay the bills while waiting. Underpinning this is the age old debate how good are the assets. Good assets are easy to fund - is the real issue uncertainty on the geology? The political stuff to me does not hold water - why were schlumberger allowed to explore and drill for deep gas in block 10 if it was a huge political red line?

Its a bit like Reggie Perrin excuses. The common theme between the arbitration/political interference explanation for the problems and the fiduciary/Outrider interference explanation is that its always someone else stopping progress. Be it Hope won't allow a loan or GG have stopped the bank account or obstructed some vague historic event. However, the more obvious explanation when you look at the accounts is that they have insufficient capital to invest the sums needed to exploit the resource (hence the GG dispute) and pay the interest (hence the Outrider series of litigation).
Hence my view remains this will hinge on the litigation with Outrider not the politics. They cannot lose that and survive as not only would we lose the asset but the costs and damages will be huge. It could like 2016/17 end up with another mediated restructure/compromise. If it is scheduled for April 2021 then while the politics of a new government could enable the transfer in FRR to complete but the asset is sill moot unless FRR can stop the litigation. The litigation will run its course or be terminated. If that is the real issue Pacer docs are key. The company will be totally silent. If there really are partners/funders in the wings then there are a couple of ways out: win or settle and pay Outrider off. FRR went to great lengths not to let Outrider have equity. Those who believe seem to think there is a plan here - I tend towards they have been improvising hoping to get a lucky break.

Yes - I maintain my view that any offer has to be at a low (realistic) price. I think the current instability should help focus the mind on the DELT side. The point I'm making is that if you thought a high price was going through you would buy DELT paper to exchange into IOG shares. That does not seem to be happening. The danger to IOG and in my opinion the LOG administrators is that the wrong priced deal drops the value of their equity in short and possibly medium term and we don't know how long they were planning on staying. I would think they were looking at selling to someone at first gas - possibly CalE have indicated they would take them. And as you say with 30% of the equity they have a large say on price as does Lombard with a large foot in IOG and smaller one in DELT.

Peak the problem as an IOG holder is Deltic weak shareprice. If there is a deal at a premium you probably can buy Deltic shares to try and get IOG paper at a discount - at 3p on a 1 for 4 you would be getting IOG 14p shares for 12p having already got a nice bump from 1p to 3p! Until that is settled we will at best tread water given the large amount of shares in tight hands here. But Deltic will be volatile and swing about depending on whether they start to lose ope of a deal at a high premium.

The problem Deltic will have to ponder whatever people may say about IOG and its 10 year production run the next 18 months could be brutal in the markets with covid and brexit. I'd prefer to be in IOG position with it all tidy going into such a storm than an exploration play. IOG will be exposed possibly to weak gas prices but that works both ways - poor oil and gas prices is more likely to further suppress investment and may hasten a few who have commitments to drop them.

DELT seems to have quite a lot of PI investors - so as the share price retreats they may come under a bit more pressure as well. IOG can sit and watch for a bit - they don't need to jump in with both feet.

Ta - its a very civil and quiet board here and always a good place for a proper debate on matters of substance rather than prices to trade! We have so few trades and so little free float we couldn't cope with volume.
The dynamic here is clearly how IOG major stakeholders will view this. I suspect the LOG administrators in particular with 30% will be having kittens with this. The higher risk profile I think means they could not proceed at too high a price - RRE offered them 20p - they are here for 1 year at most not I feel beyond that and more shares in the market allocated with a discount premium mean harder to shift their own paper. Hence CalE come into play I feel. I do wonder if they could yet come in from the side with an offer and cut IOG in using IOG as the vehicle or even take the LOG holdings.
IOG share price is remarkably stable and Deltic has drifted back this week - so no sign of anything sudden.

Ok just in between work tasks. Plug some of your numbers into my model (reduce IOG value and inflate DELT) and you get 1 for 4 swap - premium of £38m above current share price. 3.45p a share. 46.25% Delt and 53.75% IOG of new market capital.

That's way too high in my opinion in the risky environment we are now in - the puzzle remains if its so good at DELT why is it trading so far below value. 85% below the risk NAV and thats after the bump increase of the offer.

Even at that price £56 m - CalE could just buy the lot anyway.

We probably won't agree - I see this at nearer 2.5p - you think 3.5p. That's why its a market and why I have a model to test the sensitivity here. A middle would be 3p.

Mad and others.
I think we have reached the point where while the Georgian media provided a distraction since march and yes it's been that long - the sudden cut off of that source of information has brought many to the point where frustration will now turn to looking at other action. I understand that and have also reached that point myself. My preference is find people other than journalists to start poking them into a response. But it's so easy for the company that either they remain totally oblivious and indifferent to people or throw a small crumb to at least recognise people.
Remaining silent to enable the big deal or favourable election result I understand.
But it's so crazy at the moment that JJ posts last week Zaza has gone and B2O that he's got it all under control. Crazy that we aren't even sure if the person you are about to send a note too is even still running the company!
You don't need to send a letter. Any decent journalist can come on here and see that all is not well and harvest enough info to write a decent article. I'm astounded that has not happened anyway.
We are in an impossible situation. But what will happen if it carries on is if it's suppressed much longer the simmering anger will eventually explode. Time is running out. This board has shown it contains enough people with the skills and ability to cause the company plenty of trouble. I think we are close to the point where it won't take much to trigger that now and the company would be wise to take note and do what they said they would do in Jan 2019 and keep shareholders informed! The debate is one of timing -they don't deserve more time but do we hold it in a bit longer? The explosion and recriminations here will be huge if this goes on much longer with more of the same. But I'm not going to criticise looed if he sends a note as I think he is 100% justified in feeling that he wants to try something else. As I say my first port of call would be to pull at some US political levers and see what happens.
How difficult does this have to be? How many AIM companies do shareholders end up getting drawn into pondering their impact on cold war politics simply because no one will tell them what has happened to their investment.

Major t.
No I plugged both NAV values from the current broker notes and worked to a parity number to find the premium.
How have you worked it out?

Its important as many of us have considerable amounts of capital tied up and not knowing whether it has been lost or not has significant consequences. I would not be at all surprised if the last two years have not caused significant and lasting distress and damage to many investors private lives, families, plans and aspirations. To be clear that is why I feel so strongly that its time to say something. Zaza knows my email and phone and the FSHG have tried very nicely to give the company a conduit to pass even simple messages. If you are in contact with the company you can save Looed a stamp by conveying a simple message back!

B2O - you can't just post that without some justification - if that is the official position why has that not been issued by the company? Do you make that comment based on knowledge?
Concern amongst the ranks trivilises what to some of us is now becoming a very serious matter. There is no excuse for the company not to post what you have just posted unless of course its not true. WE have asked for little and got nothing. The answer is actually quite simple - say something to us. Anything would be a good start. What reason would you like to put forward for saying nothing at all and do you think that is acceptable as we head to 2 years?

Easier in a spreadsheet but here goes:

Mcap shares in issue Risked NAV NAV ratio £ priced unpriced Discount to NAV
Deltic 18,980,526 1,405,964,855 0.076 34.64% 106,853,329 0.0135 0.0625 82.24%
IOG 67,200,000 480,000,000 0.42 65.36% 201,600,000 0.14 0.28 66.67%
========= ==========
Total 86,180,526 308,453,329

Combined
Mcap shares in issue Risked NAV NAV ratio £ priced unpriced Discount to Nav
Del 35,623,000 254,450,000 0.42 34.64% 106,853,329 0.14 0.28 66.66%
IOG 67,200,000 480,000,000 0.42 65.36% 201,600,000 0.14 0.28 66.67%
=========== =========== ===========
Total 102,823,000 734,450,000 308,453,329

premium £16,642,474 = 2 x current Mcap or equivalent to 0.025337049p per share
Conversion 5.525505423 shares per IOG

The problem Deltic has is whatever people think the NAV is of the asset your current shareprice and mcap is more heavily discounted at the moment. The new combined entity MCAP will inflate the value - if the market does not believe the price then IOG price could fall back post issue a bit. Above 2.5p you get more than your share of the risked NAV! If you think the risked NAV is too low you need to justify why its so low and convince IOG it should be higher. The current heavy discount and risked NAV must be where they are for a reason. I personally think we should be higher so it cuts both ways.

Example
shares value premium
Del 100,000 £1,350
IOG 18,098 £2,534 £1,184 +87.68% to current share price

Rainbow sadly respect and reputation is earned but easily lost.

MT I'll post some calcs later and we can debate them......

ODR hence my very serious comment that those who believe in the political angle to this should be looking to email the US embassy in London and Georgia as a start to politely ask them if they have a means to gee up our leadership due to the potential consequences of the company carrying on its current course. I would hit them first we some pointed and targetted mails plus the senators and lobbyists who have taken money if we can find them. Hopefully the message will then start to filter back.
I am 100% convinced emailing, calling, posting is a waste of time to the company now.
They will not respond to a probing journalist - the one from Houston Chronicle Steve seemed to totally not understand anything other than his stock it will be alright after the next drill because it takes a long time to unlock a field - without explaining how that now happens - he was not pressed on the litigation even though that journalist had part of the story from the outrider side.
There is indeed risk here but I do think the time for sitting back and watching them in silence carry on as they are has ended and the only time you will get any leverage here is due to the elections.
Friends of the company need to speak a few hard words of truth those who pillory Georgia for undemocratic, anti business practices and then fall well short of the basic standards I would expect of a company that seeks to position itself as a hard done by beacon of US corporate investment in Georgia.
We have never asked for more than the basic curtessy of being kept informed of what is happening. Anyone who thinks that is too much to ask for has totally lost the plot in my opinion.

They are in an interesting position having @9% of DELT and 25.38% in IOG. They would not cross 30% in the enlarged entity but they will have a say here having such a large combined holding. They would have been consulted on this along with LOG admin with their 30%.
LOG admin position is a difficult one - they would not want to be dilluted down to detriment of creditors and would not want to be see risk increased. Lombard likewise are weighted heavier in IOG than DELT - so they would be interested in a realistic price closer to current share prices than a higher NAV split short term.
The wildcard is CalE and hence the option of a cash element with IOG issuing paper and imediately farming out and getting cash to fund a cash element presumably.
That would complicate things for DELT as then they would have to chew over how to value future prospects against a cash and equity element now - they may prefer to stay with a full equity position - rarther than a lower cash element.

Its a hard one to call - but a high price for DELT seems not to be how the market in my opinion rightly sees it at the moment. At a time of great global uncertainty IOG must not overpay for an asset.
I notice oilriches on DELT board has the 2.5p number I get to using weighted NAV's and a bit extra. I think that's where its likely to be around if an offer comes in. Else they will not be able to reconcile Lombard/LOG and the 3p man on DELT side. There is a logic too that balances each sides risk/reward.
The question of balance of interests in any merger is interesting. There is a bit of room to carry on with a bit of separation between the operational and exploration activities and accommodate roles around that. Chair then becomes key role and how the two "arms" sit with a CEO. There must be a bit of cost to strip out in things like general expense roles such as finance and leases but in this case I don't think that's the rationale - short term terminations can cost more than they save.
So all in all wait goes on for the next move but IOG carries on its low volume trade - so everyone is watching so we are in good company.

Jim/Ex its a fine balance - but leverage is highest now due to US and Georgian election cycles.

I've mulled this over many times. If the politics are so crucial to a positive outcome then you would think someone would have a quiet word with Steve (even in his capacity on US chamber of commerce rep for eastern europe if he still holds the post). What the company is doing is showing the worse and most anti democratic aspects of western business practices.

Hence for those who think its all political the next path is letter/mail addressed to US embassy or State department or even the CIA pleading with them to have a word and sort it out copying in the pro FRR politicians.

In terms of mail I have wondered if the company is using different email server/addresses for business needs now and all old contacts ceased in some way when the summons serving started! That's my only explanation on mail. But I know from others calls and other forms of contact are also unsuccessful.
Historically the only way that guarantees a result is face to face with FRR and that has been the case to my knowledge for most of the past decade.
Whoever contacted that journalist a few months ago in Georgia I would be interested how they had got contact as a journalist. I'm guessing phone call.
Also if there have been any recent court documents with alternate emails the company might be using will be interestjng. Even knowing who the company secretary was now maybe from Cayman registry might be a start.

Looed again you are correct.
It's a total mystery to me why the company will not engage even informally with a hang in there note. That would not compromise litigation and as we are not listed there is no such thing as price sensitive information. In fact I'm astounded they have not done even that given the risk and potential damage they could be unleashed by well informed and determined disgruntled shareholders.
I held off posting in 2019 and right into 2020 to leave a door open. I only started posting again when I judged would hear nothing. If I can't get a reply when they know me then you will struggle as it took me years to get to the point they would respond to me. And that has just added to my own personal disappointment here that I've not been able to get that simple recognition of shareholders.
It's not all over but it's going to be some story if they get out of this with the company intact and require a huge explanation to justify what has happened. The first meeting will be one not to be missed if it ever happens - I don't think it will be in London either unless they are very brave or victorious.

Looed and this has been the issue all along.
The trouble started with the default in sept 2018 and will end when the gambit of the fiduciary is exhausted. Either with a win, a compromise mediated or a defeat. In the absence of that as at Oct 2018 the way out is a large injection of alternative funding to pay off outrider and develop what's left of block 12.
I think it's as simple as that. In the meantime we could cause mischief in the media or through parallel litigation but that would simply weaken the possibility of FRR getting an outcome in the fiduciary case. It's an impossible situation really but the delisting and restricted avenues in the articles leave very little options when the board decide to behave like this.
For those who think the Georgian election is the key event here I hope your right it can't make it worse.