Member Info for mogo

surely they hope or know that NC will save them by doing a deal of which they get 10%..?

the choice is sit two months and then zilch,or try something with the money first,has to be soon..

with gold doing better and this right down nar apparent support this SHOULD be a base but of course who are we to say ? GL DYOR

-gold does appear to be reacting quite well.See the Kitco Gold multiple article at "Great Minds Talk at FreedomFest" (c).However I'm not in any tipping scenario.See my post over at RRR too.GL DYOR.

as usual sorry

thanks for that m8.The total of 1/5th of last years' gold production includes only the US COMEX shorting,on top are the rest of world derivatives for gold and the big sell off of gold ETF's.Of course again there iso certitude gold can make a comeback.The Fed. has little time for it-Bernancke said yesterday he had no idea about how it worked,and they make the rules.Gold dealing can eaaily be made harder,it was year ago -margins were moved for example.The dollar is important-it sometimes seems they support it but want it to be devalued too,to cut debts.Each speech contains boosts and letdowns so few know if QE will go on.Articles claim anyway that the results of reurning to higher interest rates will be destroying bonds,ramping up debt repayments and reigniting house mortgage defaults.Which will depress business and the stock market.How can we go on withoutt QE in fact how can we go on with it ? The whole thing appears a series of gambles without knowing the effects.Us poor folks might suffer more as we go down the tubes.I'm nor saying get in a concrete bunker with a 12 bore for self defence and food for a year but some nervy types might consider it prudent to study the construction diagrams lol.

unbelievable gold shorts in now according to Market Oracle most recent article-556.4 metric tons of gold now shorted which is about one fifth of last years' production.Hopefully other base etc. metals might be similar.There is UNLIMITED penalty when a short goes wrong compared to "only" 100% loss for any long.For example AFE has lost down from 17p to here from 2010,a cut of nearly 68 times ! Also shoters can be leveraged up to 16 times now so they put up far less money than the gold they are covering.Any loss is therefore multiplied many times.OLf course we might envy those who shorted mining shares all the way down but when it turns against them they will suffer! See article-"Gold Short Squeeze" (c).Anyway this has to turn sometime,our agony in mining shares might then be reversed at the expense of these shorters who have in fact enjoyed 2.5 years of profits from the money leaving our pockets.I'm not forecasting anything here after all that time,just to say it must turn sometime..AFE has intesrsts in gold at Miyabi of course and all mining is inter related.GL DYOR.

4 trades worth £3200 ,all buys-if correct- and it falls 5 %.Might be getting nearer a base after losing over 40% in 6 weeks ? The other 5 UK based gold miners are better this week.GL

support in the 500p-520p band..

support in the 600p-520p band,resistance appears to be from 580p-600p

head and shoulders chart formation based on about 200p ?

I must say in ending that Dutwa is still a quite worthwhile "store of value" but that is only available to those who control it.At the moment the TZ Govt. holds final say through the rules of issue of the exploration licence.A mining licence for 25+ years can only be issued if a suitable BFS and environmental impact study is completed and passed fit by TZ.Which will take money.Even then the project cannot come to fruition until far more is spent.I'd guess a suitable buyer would be one capable of taking the long view where the nickel price again rises towards $24/lb.NC can't go past a BFS in fact he might wish to deal it off without that.The Chinese might be candidates to take it up,they are ready to acquire lots of resources for years ahead.TZ has been a good area for them for years with their railway interests etc. which will come into play when Dutwa is developed. A mining major might lack the capacity since profits might be delayed too long.Of course AFE is down to 10% now of the total while previously having up to 80% (?).They had no choice in the matter-either that or liquidation really.It could come right still, provided NC markets the deal strongly in the next few months.AFE might have one further card if that fails -to deal out to NC totally the final 10% which is still worth something of course.GL DYOR.

more thoughts from- "after the crash of 2008 when fiat currencies and banks collapsed it looked as if stores of value in the ground were better than holding worthless pieces of paper just off the printing machine".That idea has proved to be wrong- 1. The rules were rewritten as those who make these rules,the Fed,BOE etc. are the same people now still printing the new fiat money. 2. it appears now that Bernancke can manipulate markets by only mentioning either going on with QE or tapering it down.As seen this week in speeches to the US govt. 3. Agencies working with central banks can short gold and silver and other metal futures. The Achilles Heel though is Debt.Which can be paid off slowly by devaluing the dollar,or printing money or keeping low interest rates by buying bonds e.g. QE.Debt however still mounts up,even just due to the interest due on it.The rules can still be rewritten again or the debt defaulted on. So if we were wrong to put trust in AIM Miners with metals in the ground back in 2010 or earlier,where is there a "solid store of value" now ? Possible answers- a. metals above ground,physical metals.All the expenses to get them there-plant,labour,energy have been expended giving the final product.That is the disadvantage of miners-especially smaller ones,there are these costs to be dedected. b. major miners shares-these companies have "paid up" many of the overhead costs of production-plant,labour,energy- and are more independent of loans and placings due to the volume of their production.Better interest rates are got for loans as security can be given against solid assets.That is why small producers take loans at 15% while majors get far lower rates,and nonproducers can't get loans at all! c. other "solid" things like real estate. d. the best types of bonds. e. cash For all of these there are disadvantages.The US Fed. might confiscate physical gold as in 1932-33,while countries apply new rules to even major miners.Real estate is subject to interest rates while bonds are destroyed if these go higher.Finally cash of course gets devalued by inflation.GL DYOR.

as usual lol.

Those of us who were in AFE a few years ago know all about the problems of AIM Miners.MP/EW-Managing Director and CEO then,held possession for AFE of exploration licences for most of the rich nickel assets at Dutwa and likely Zanzui too.Unfortunately the value was "in the ground".After the crash of 2008 when fiat currencies and banks collapsed,and vast money printing happened,it looked as if stores of value in the earth were better than holding worthless pieces of paper just off the printing machine.We thought about the much talked about commodities bull cycle where growing populations would consume these metalks for new cities and construction works.Unfortunately two things- 1. that vast amount of nickel was in the ground. 2. banks and powerful countries could change the rules to favour themselves.Or things happen anyway-see below. The population is still growing especially in poor countries but China has built empty cities and appears ready to rein in.Demand for metals will come but the option of doing without things is also on the table.Doing without does not necessarily raise metals prices.In fact it can give rise to stagnation instead as we are seeing.So even with the population rising you have closures of mines and putting off investment.In any case the banks are still not financing mines.So the world can hold off using metals for a much longer time than small companies like AFE can hold off doing without money.Yes of course shares could be printed but we saw how the AFE SP dropped below the nominal SP which had to be lowered recently.The back of envelope calculations were hardly feasible anyway but drops in the price of nickel which was once $24/lb to nearer $6/lb saw to that.Even $600m would just set up production with more costs coming.NC faces a very big challenge getting the project sold,good luck to him!

an unusually clear report in Kitco by Kira Brecht (c) She says -words altered a bit- the parameters are gold,the dollar,bonds,housing,QE,unemployment,interest rates all inter related in effects on the economy.IF the figures for the economy get worse-unemployment,housing etc. the dollar will be worse and gold up while QE would go on longer..However interest rates presently hitting bonds might impact on the recent housing market growth due to harder to finance mortgages and thus the economy stalls..So watch interest rates on the US T-Bonds.. We do want people out of bonds into shares but rising interest rates which cause that,will also damage housing and therefore the economy..

According to an article on Market Oracle we are at, or soon about to be at Stage 5 in The Business Cycle.Stocks,bonds going down,and commodities going up. Certainly bonds are going down while shares though high might be near peaking,while commodities are very low and might rise.The snag is the next, Stage 6 leads to all three falling and a new bear market.Would commodity shares rise while other shares were falling ? Would cash be safer into a new bear market ? Stage 1 bonds up Stage 2 shares,bonds up Stage 3 shares,bonds,commodities up Stage 4 shares,commodities up Stage 5 commodities up Stage 6 none up

Re your question-yes NC has already managed two successful deals-see his CV.Obviously he believes he can get a third here.The question is has he got the right levers to pull ? The II's must be satisfied with whatever happens plus EW the ex boss who withdrew the claim in the eventuality of any deal.It won't be easy,any buyer developing Dutwa and maybe Zanzui will need a lot of money.I suggested the Chinese but that was pure supposition. I am no more the wiser than anyone here including your kind self.Thanks and GL too. PS.A separate issue is what AFE can do with the cash to further their interests elsewhere in the time available.Again their idea of time might hinge on what they know about NC and his plans..

reading the last guidance,it seems like the cost per oz. of gold should tend to fall due to employment of traned labour,the cage and production increases.Just over $1000/oz. it was but this might be the peak for the next few years as targets begin to be hit.Profits -presently just loss making-should come from now on.

- need gold shares as a contrarian stake ,though a lot of steam will be raised elsewhere first lol.Your 200p or so support is nearing again- "plain silly" youi said in June. Wherever it sticks it will rise from sometime.