Member Info for Mkx007

I think what I love most about this update is the fact that the board (self appointed) has approved continuation of the management (self owned). That's almost like patting yourself on the back and saying well done guys. Just let's review performance:

GB revenues - down

Irish revenues - down

Texas revenues - down

German revenues - stable, but let's sell that asset first.

Caiso - 50% fixed contract, 50% merchant revenues <-- latter part - down.

So as an adviser, at what point do you advise the company that they should be hedging market decline by accepting downside protection. Put GB assets on a floor?

Consider also that the head of construction has left and one of the managing directors has recently left - there is not much positivity left here.

After the bonuses have been paid?

Looks like Gore Street Capital, is launching another fund. Does really make you question who's behind this big money decisions! Wonder if there are going to be any interactions between the two as surely this would be conflict of interest.

Or does GSC "recommend" they buy an asset GSF can't sell in the normal market (the german asset, etc), surely that's poor advice if the market wouldn't buy it. Good for GSF to offload an asset and generate cash but now there are conflicting funds looking European asset acquisition now under the same manager, will they bid in competition? I assume the EU fund wont take any GB assets.

Not heard anything but I'm also very keen to see an update. I've just looked at Fresnillo and it's had an incredible 12 months - should have put some more money in gold assets at the start of the year!

NAV has been maintained by bringing new assets online, same over at GRID as well, despite revenue declining both funds have somehow stabilised NAV - by development. Not by increasing revenue which really should be the focus here as revenue per MW is the key metric not the absolute number.

I think we are going to disagree on Germany, there are two distinct pathways: the gas heavy route which is currently being discussed in the German government, continuation of the current renewable trajectory. The latter will be beneficial for BESS, the former less so.

I suggest you take a look at the Clean Horizon Battery Index - Sweden has averaged over £200k/MW for a 2hour system for the last 3 years. Finland over £300k/MW, Denmark a mix but still over £200k/MW. whereas the GB market has dropped to £60-80k/MW. Norway is not a market to consider as you've rightly mentioned, plus recent policy changes make it non-viable.

ERCOT and other markets will collapse unless Trump steps in and prevents further deployment, saturation is already present I can't see it shifting. Perhaps you are more bullish here.

I think applying macro-economic trends to an emerging market is somewhat naïve especially as there are currently a lot of blockers that would prevent the German market going the same way at least for the back end of this decade. Super profits are not guaranteed but the company prided itself on diversification and then doubled down on losing horses. Increasing in Germany, adding Nordic markets, adding other European markets? Japan has been added via another method which GSF wont see any returns. Why has the investment manager (GSC) not "advised" investment in Japan? Surely there is interest there perhaps?

RE: US - it was very obvious a bubble was emerging and a GB like trend would follow. They capitalise and should have fixed revenue during the peak period or even the year after but alas they missed it. Again another example of poor management from GSC towards GSF - market has a downward trend seek potential to hedge against downturn - continue with full market exposure, seems very dumb!

If what your saying is true regarding super profits then the underlying assets are valued way beyond what is stated as many of the assets were valued on curves that were made during the peak periods and we're witnessing periodic correction of those valuations. Does not fill me with a lot of confidence than they will be able to sell anything in the near term. Citing "peers" like HEIT transaction is a very poor example and shows lack of understanding in the market. HEIT was a 2-hour, very new fleet, all the assets the same with the same manufacturer. GSF has a mixture of providers, integrators, optimisers (now being centralised) and a range of durations. This isn't an attractive purchase, perhaps to someone looking purely at repowering or to utilise the grid connection for their own project but given the recent grid reform, those players will likely have connections sooner than before.

CAISO, Ireland, Germany are the only markets I consider adding value - if they sell Germany and Irish assets, like what is earmarked, then the GSF portfolio will have very little revenue potential - I am left with a bearish view for the near-term.

GB revenue - not particularly anything to shout about considering revenue levels in Ireland and Germany. Good to see the internal team are beating the benchmark though. Shame they can't top up that revenue as I assume there is a chunk of the £6.6/MW/hr figure which is capacity market which you don't have to do anything to earn - just be online, even then there are loopholes.

Germany - really should have added more capacity in this market instead of building more in UK/Texas. Now they want to sell the best performing asset a bit of a red flag as I assume the funds will be used to build out more the must deliver UK assets unless they're sold.

Ireland - strong as always, somewhat saviour of the portfolio but that'll only continue until DS3 ends in 2027, any bullish forecast here is a bit of amber flag as there will be a transitional period.

US - just wow, they were so bullish on it over the last few reports now making just £2.5/MW/hr guess that bubble burst quite quickly. Surprised to not see the Modo benchmark used here as well. Looking forward to seeing that in the future - for reference Modo is £3.03

Ended well...

Depends how big the yacht is?

As I've said before this is a buy and hold. Once the UK government actually realise then need to local/domestic products instead of taxing them into the ground, then this will stay at a neutral level. Once that shifts, will be a fantastic return!

Only way that's happening is if a bunch of new investors step in. the LTH's have this in a bottom draw somewhere. I've got one last buy in me but waiting for lower levels we've seen before.

Gold is good, but I don't think we'll hear anything for a few weeks/months.

To be fair they have addressed it and I would be surprised if the company has gone to the folks doing it and said right guys, sorry the window has closed"

That article has nothing to do with ORCP. What on earth are you posting??

That article is 13 years old!!!

Sure you did...

That's why it's down 15%

Is that it?

I've just closed out some here...if there is not going to be an update now until Q1 26. I'm assuming this will now drag on into the new year. Will put the money back in closer to December/January.

Good luck all - looks like positive news is finally on the horizon!

There were 2 legacy ones I've been part of

No one is buying these shares to turn a profit, that is secondary to the fact you can get decent discounts on the wine from the shop. I was lucky and bought at 28p a couple of months before going down there. Buy and hold forever for me :)

Not the only one. Was sold this with a lot of false promises, that is a huge error.!!