Member Info for mjb606

Not sure about sharing how many shares are held by individuals - but it would be mildly interesting to know what overall percentage of HZM is held by people on here. Not going to add my number though, apart from to say that I have an imprudently large percentage of my portfolio in HZM (although at least an order of magnitude less than wasa) - so definitely hoping that the financing works out, and the share price starts to climb! Here's to the New Year, and the promise of progress!

https://www.anywhereconference.com?Conference=301302216&PIN=91815157&UserAudioMode=DATA
for the presentation to go along with the call...

Try https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/nickel-streaming-chart?cid=959208
for "live" nickel futures pricing.

The numbers certainly look promising. I see that HZM have already put up an NPV calculator for Vermelho in the same manner as Araguaia. If you add up the two (including stage 2 for Araguaia), the NPV is approaching $3 billion using $16.5k for nickel price.

Progress on Araguaia construction recruitment. Vermelho PFS now "later this month" - sounds fairly unambiguous.

Good enough for me too, although I do wonder whether I should have asked for a Jeremy Martin to English dictionary, especially containing translations of JM-speak versions of "soon", "shortly" and "imminent" into English

A few days ago I did attempt to contact HZM about whether they were likely to meet their timescale for the Vermelho PFS. Today I receive a reply: "The study is in final stages and we expect to release this to the market shortly."

Not hugely informative, but I thought I would share anyway!

Not sure it's that binary - there is also the "buy out by a major" option - which should generate some value for shareholders but, in my opinion, less than the build/operate end point. I have been in for a while, and my preferred route is for HZM to get to mine build and operate themselves, as I don't (currently) have any pressing time constraints.

Personally, I have no intention of selling any time soon - quite happy to wait years if necessary. I also have no intention of any more top ups, as I have already got a greater percentage of HZM in my portfolio that is strictly prudent. However, if the price did drop low enough, would I be able to resist the temptation? I am not so sure...

Not just people - it's also what Horizonte have been saying for a while now - end of the quarter was what was states most recently. That would be next Monday. I must admit to a little increasing nervousness as the days of September have passed with no RNS. Only 2 working days left now (if you assume a 7am release time, which is when most RNS's emerge).

It would have been nice if HZM didn't take it to the wire in this - but so long as the PFS is issued by Monday, no problem.

Not sure whether this signifies much, but both RedT and Scott M have been twittering from"Solar & Storage Live" in Birmingham. In Scott's case it was a tweet about a presentation by Anglian Water about their flow machine pilot. Maybe RedT aren't totally dead yet...

I have also had a quick skim, and the standout for me is that the typical discount to NPV at the BFS stage (which we hit with Araguaia some time ago) is way less than our current discount. This would imply that HZM is still grossly undervalued, even if you only look at Araguaia stage 1 NPV to enterprise value. (Or is that just wishful thinking? I too have been somewhat stung by SXX this week!)

As far as I can see, the close yesterday was $17285, and it is down a bit more today. That's from the investing.com nickel futures chart, but the LME website is similar.

September 9th was last week - Nickel is indeed down to $17k now. However, I do agree that this is not an issue. The base case for Araguaia was calculated using $14k, and the stretch target was around $16k.

Also, financing is based in Nickel price forecasts, and while Nickel may have pulled back a little from its recent run up, the latest forecasts are still strong, demand is looking good and there have been a number of recent announcements that look like possibly reducing supply.

In short, while I may be concerned about many things, the Nickel price is not one of them!

September 9th was last week - Nickel is indeed down to $17k now. However, I do agree that this is not an issue. The base case for Araguaia was calculated using $14k, and the stretch target was around $16k.

Also, financing is based in Nickel price forecasts, and while Nickel may have pulled back a little from its recent run up, the latest forecasts are still strong, demand is looking good and there have been a number of recent announcements that look like possibly reducing supply.

In short, while I may be concerned about many things, the Nickel price is not one of them!

I am (selfishly) hoping for a Wednesday or Thursday RNS - so that I will be able to dial in to the likely analyst call that would typically follow such announcements! (Ideally this week, but I could cope with next week).

Does anyone have any good rule of thumb for converting an NPV into a Market Cap value? Currently, with Nickel at $17.5k, the Araguaia NPV calculator is showing an NPV of roughly $1.5billion. Our current market capitalisation is about £70million. Seems to me there is a bit of a value gap here, but I have no idea what a reasonable discount to NPV would be at this stage. (only looking at Araguaia stages 1&2 at this point - will also need to factor in Vermelho soon hopefully!)

I too am still around (intermittently). However, I think that I have mentally written off my entire RedT investment (not hard to do when 85% down), so anything more than a zero return would be a pleasant surprise!

In answer to Geng, and in relation to Araguaia, I would say that we are at the start of the development stage. (Yes, we are still awaiting a PFS, but that is for the second mine).
The cash raised was to start the development activity, and cash spent on this doesn't just vanish into thin air, it adds to the value of the project.

Looks like IRR of about 41-44 % for stage 1/2 respectively. (Using HZM'S NPV calculator).