Member Info for mjb606

Hi BM - I am not too sure about your first point. The placing shares would only have been available to trade from this morning (according to the RNS). Could well be selling from PIs before today though.

Just checked - at $19705 this instant - so not far to go to hit $20k, which has been widely touted as the incentive price needed to bring on more supply, so not sure whether we really want to hit that level!

Although some may be disappointed in the placing price, I don't personally think it's too bad. Although those extra 240m shares (and equivalents) now exist, all things being equal the company's market cap should rise by £18m, even if no account is taken of the work packages this unlocks. The nominal effect of this on the existing shares should be somewhere around 16% of the discount - roughly a third of a penny - although in the short term we may drop by more than that, as markets are not always fully rational!

No he didn't - he first sold approx 26000 shares and then immediately bought them back. The announcement said that it was part of a "Bed and ISA" transaction. The number of shares he holds is unchanged. Not sure how you can stuff £50k I to an ISA in one go though.

I had originally said that my last top up (back in September at about 6.5p) would be my last one - I have "enough" HZM, at an average of 3.6, but a disproportionately large slice of my portfolio (I am too cautious for the "all in" approach!).

Now, however, I am starting to get a bit twitchy on the buy button again - haven't hit it yet, but if HZM drops much further I may not be able to resist yet another final top-up!

I agree, VV, there will probably be political pressure on central banks to allow inflation to run ahead of target for a while in an attempt to deflate some of the COVID debts - although at the moment most central banks are still officially mandated to keep inflation under control.

The bond markets are likely to respond even before any official interest rate changes though, if they see that the likely direction of travel is upward. The latest news from one of the Fed members indicated that he would want to see inflation above 2% and stay there for a year before increasing rates - but if inflation climbs more rapidly than expected, they may be forced to take action sooner.

That's a classic economist type of question (i.e. if you want 3 different opinions, just ask 2 economists)!

On the one hand, the stimulus should be good for economic recovery which would be good for commodities, but on the other hand, it could lead to upward pressure on inflation, which could in turn lead to upward pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. How much that would affect HZM and the financing package is anyone guess!

For me currently it is only if there is a significant overshoot in shareprice due to the FOMO crowd that I would be tempted to sell (some). Otherwise I am quite content to wait for production / dividends or takeover - whichever happens first. At present the current market cap significantly undervalues the resources, so I will sit tight!

Nearly there - just hit 8p!

For what it's worth, I would be fairly comfortable holding until production and beyond to potential dividends. I have no particular need to de-risk, even though HZM is 30% of my portfolio.

The only thing that might persuade me into an earlier sale would be if irrational exuberance sent the SP beyond fair value (such is if market cap significantly exceeded the NPV of both projects).

Unless/until that happens (or a takeover bid) I will sit on my hands!

Just hit 17k - no idea what's going on. Seems to have shot up in the last few minutes.

I wonder now whether this might finally allow JM to "fix" his internet connection and get an interview or two out. Ideally video, as I would like to read his facial expressions/body language as well as his words, but audio only would be better than nothing!

You may not need a large tank, but a decent sized charging station (say 8 points @ ~120kW) could easily hit a 1 MW power demand - which could well lead to the need to upgrade the local electricity distribution network to cope with the demand. (The same may well be true if enough households install home charging points - the local distribution substations were designed to cope with the demand expected of normal households - not lots of people charging cars up!).

Not an insurmountable obstacle - but it will need to be factored in to the infrastructure roll-out.

I would imagine that most of us on here (those who are invested at least) would agree that HZM will be funded at some point - hopefully in the not too distant future.

The more interesting question to me is what fraction of the value that this unlocks will be attributable to us shareholders. I think that there is likely to be some dilution, but also the interest rate on the debt element and whatever preferential terms are given to any early offtakers (or any other royalty deals) will also have an impact.

Any educated guesses out there as to what % of the project value we are likely to see? (Personally, having been here since 2017 I am not in any hurry to sell. I would be happy to wait for dividends, if we get that far without a takeover).

I think that the problem is that it is easy for people to misinterpret the tone of a post. Mine (and yours I believe) were genuinely positive posts from two slightly battered long term holders. Not entirely sure why that was misinterpreted, but this board does on occasion seem to have a slightly combative tone, so perhaps it is understandable if people are.a.bit twitchy from time to time.

Looks promising! After the recent news I am now less then 60% down on my investment (a RedT veteran), which sounds bad, but is less bad than the 86% loss that I would have incurred had I been bothered to sell at the time when it looked the the value could go all the way down to zero!

What I would be really interested in is if anyone has any way of calculating what % of NPV the market capitalisation should be at different stages. I would imagine that early on in the explorer to producer journey, it would be quite a low percentage, but increasing as the project progressively de-risks. At the moment we are close to (but not quite!) being funded to build an actual mine, but based in the sums below our current share price is a little more than 10% of the NPV value (Araguaia only). What I have no idea of is whether this is reasonable for the stage we are at or not!

It looks as though you haven't converted back from $ to £ - it is 77¢ not p per share, as far as I can tell.

Not quite, due to timing issues. If you have a look at the investor presentation on the website, the implication is that Stage 2 kicks into action in year 3, so the present value would be discounted to reflect that. (I think that when the quote "NPV8" that the 8 refers to the discount rate used).

In the current version of the presentation they are using $16.4k for the nickel price.

The stage 2 figure is the total NPV achieved if the the expansion happens so at $16k nickel it is a total of $1.15B (at this level it's about 60p per share).