Member Info for mjb606

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/6yscnd0ur#?date=2022-04-06

Looks hot and humid - with a bit of rain - over the next week or so - 33 degrees and up to 95% humidity at times!

(This is for conceição do araguaia - close to the Araguaia South site).

I am slightly surprised that the award of this contract didn't merit an RNA from HZM - after all, the furnace contract and EPCM contract got their own announcements.

Perhaps it wasn't seen as significant enough, but not sure why that would be, as it seems pretty significant to me. Is this contract related to the Danish ECA funding?

https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/nickel-streaming-chart?cid=959208

This is one - there were others that were saying similar things.

Not sure which sites you are using TDT, but the ones I am looking at have nickel up 3-4% today, at close to $34k per tonne.

Has seemed fairly well behaved over the last few days.

Certainly looking up - but not an all time high in terms of share price!
They are still below where they were when I bought a few in Feb 2017. The all time high was about £1.90 back in 2014.

It is looking encouraging though - I might even break even at some point in the foreseeable future!

Looks like the Nickel market still hasn't stabilised - looks like it's immediately traded 15% up this morning

Looks like the nickel price is currently bumping up against the 15% limit, but not quite hitting it! The highest I have seen is 14.99%!

Is the limit still at 15% - the rise is currently showing 14.35% (on investing.com)

Still a big step down this morning - but this time it doesn't look like it has immediately hit the buffers (i.e. the LME imposed limit on daily movement).

I think that the price is now within similar territory to SHFE, so hopefully some degree of normality is being restored.

It will be interesting to see whether nickel can find its price this week. So far I think it has hit the buffers fairly quickly each day that the market was open last week. Hopefully some stability and normality can be restored this week (although as people have commented before, it's the nickel price a year or two hence that we should be more interested in!). I did see some comment over the weekend to the effect that the downward price limit this week should be within the range where nickel will find willing buyers.

Absolutely related to wet season.

If you watch the latest videos from JM he explicitly referred to works having already commenced in preparation for the main earth works and civils beginning in April.

(I think it was the latest Proactive video rather than the mining conference, but I could be wrong).

Getting the approvals in place for the COF was a requirement of the main debt agreements, not a signal that there were cost overturns already!

This article contains some interesting context, although still largely hearsay and speculation...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/lme-nickel-jumps-another-10-after-record-rally-supply-fears-2022-03-08/

Oops - should have read your link more carefully, TDT. I had just seen various articles earlier in the day. It does seem like he has decided to exit some positions and consider what to do with the rest. I guess it may depend on what happens when LME reopens the nickel market.

@TDT wasn't it a margin call rather than an active decision to close out his short position? Once the price went too high, he either had to deposit more to cover the required margin or else close his position.

I suppose you could argue that was still a choice - assuming he had the money to spare, he could have covered the margin call.

Hopefully the war will be short lived. If that is the case, even if sanctions against Russia from the west are long lived, I expect that there will still be a market for Russian nickel - such as China. That should lead to the current extremes in the nickel market to subside.

I think that fact that the HZM share price is only marginally up despite nickel almost doubling indicates that the linkage between HZM and short-term pricing is relatively low. As pointed out by numerous posters, we are looking for a reasonably nickel market 2 years hence - and extreme pricing now is unlikely to be helpful, nor should it persist if there the war does end soon.

I sincerely hope that Nickel won't go that high.
They say that the cure for high prices is high prices! Whether that be in terms of seeking more supply (new and re-opened mines) or less demand (reducing use of stainless steel, or low Ni batteries.).

I believe that there is a sweet spot which will allow HZM a reasonable profit at current prices (or even lower - see the NPV calculator).

Also, from an environmental perspective, I wouldn't want to see battery raw materials go too high, as it might adversely affect EV adoption, and I really don't think that's something we would want to see.

From the look of this job description, the role is about commissioning and production ramp up, so if anything they are recruiting quite early for this one, but this does show that they are planning ahead.

There have been quite a few jobs advertised on LinkedIn over the past few weeks - many of which will have been more closely linked to the actual build.

It would be nice to get some idea of progress, but we do not drive the reporting schedule.

Found a relevant link:
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1208-tsx/hzm/113041-la-mancha-announces-acquisition-of-shares-of-horizonte-minerals-plc.html

Re: La Mancha: I think that I read somewhere that as part of the terms of the fund raise, they weren't allowed to sell anything for something like 4 months, and they are also not allowed to buy anything that takes their holding over 25% for 18 months.

I have been trying to remember where I saw this, but without luck so far!

Presumably we should be expecting another RNS later today with the results of the General Meeting. If the resolutions aren't passed - that would be a problem!

In general though, the thing that will unlock any value is going to be building a mine, producing nickel and selling it to customers for cold hard cash. Assuming the meeting goes OK today, the next step is to start that process.