Member Info for Mitch984

"Just wondering why you make so much negative noise, that's all. Good to hear we're on the same team."

I wouldn't call it negative noise - more realistic noise. Extrader's research should be as useful to us all as MinorMiner's - if we want a balanced view of things.

Apart from the company report on the quality of the iron ore and their statement that it's looking good for the cold pellet process, virtually everything else we have at the moment is still speculation.

Hopefully the upcoming investor's meeting will move things forward with more factual information.

Gods' post is absolutely correct. Until Zioc announce something positive, this share will drift downwards - and wise investors will pick up more.

As long as all we have is rumour and speculation, we will be at the mercy of the overly optimistic and the unduly pessimistic. One deramping Twitter account has had a big effect on the fall the past few days, making some short term holders very nervous. Definitive EPP news from the company, whether by RNS or the investors meeting, will stabilise the share price - and that is desperately needed to end the massive swings in sentiment.

The key, as mentioned, is the only 2018 official Zioc comment on the port (so far):-

"ZIOC notes that there is still discussion between the RoC Government, China EXIM Bank and China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) on the financing and development plan for the NEW BULK MATERIALS PORT DEVELOPMENT north of Pointe Noire

Advancement of the new port development COULD PROVIDE A KEY CATALYST in allowing the Zanaga 12Mtpa Stage One development project to derisk and proceed towards seeking finance."

As soon as Zioc get any official conformation from the RoC Government, China EXIM Bank and China Road and/or Bridge Corporation (CRBC) they will have to RNS under AIM rules. They haven't so far, but that is not a negative at all.

Why? Because the important part of the Zioc statement is that it doesn't mention the EPP. The EPP will go ahead regardless of the port confirmation - and, indeed, several years before the new port would be ready.

In other words, the port is for Stage 1 progression. Whether its approved or not has no effect on the EPP - and its confirmation of EPP plans that will move the share price upwards

We all need to stop listening to the "joining the dots" theories that have raised our hopes to an impossibly optimistic level over the past few months - and that includes a Chinese buyout, spurious connections with BHP and Rio Tinto, and the imminent arrival of a new Chinese financed port.

The only relevant information we should consider is that which comes direct from the company. Zioc's intentions and optimism are well laid out in the AGM papers. On top of that, we should place far more weight on various investor's personal communication and conversations with Andrew Trehar. He is still hugely optimistic. Zioc have a EPP plan that does not rely on the new port. If the Chinese finance a new port, that will be a big bonus - but the timescale of the EPP does not rely on it.

By ignoring the join-the-dots speculation, my view is that there is no third party or Glencore interest in a buy out as yet. Zioc and Glencore's intention is (and has been for some time) to progress the EPP, and then move on to Stage 1. That is, Zioc will become a true mining company - and a profitable one at that.

Yes, a buy-out offer from a third party may follow, but anyone investing in this share for the potential £3 to £6 share valuation needs to be willing to hold for three years or more.

Anyone looking to just double or triple their money will not have to wait that long. A confirmed Zioc plan for the EPP will see us at 60p+.

In the meantime, its great to speculate - but lets have a sense of realism back on this board, and stop all the insults and bickering. The over optimism of imminent blockbuster news just attracts the short term speculators who then sell out a week or two later - exactly as we have seen last week and this week with the rise from 20p to 25p and the fall back again.

We really need to stop these attacks on anyone who posts anything that is not optimistic. Not everyone is a deramper. I'm not even sure deramps are needed to shake people into selling. There has been no shortage of shares to buy over the past few months, even when the price dropped to 9p.

What Mr Bateman was doing was stating what we KNOW at the present time, rather than assumptions via joining dots. At the moment there are no FACTS that tell us that Glencore will buy out Zioc's share or finance the EPP or Stage 1. Only speculation. There are no FACTS that state that the new mineral port has been approved. There are no FACTS that cold pelletisation will work for Zioc on the large scale needed.

That is the cold hard situation as of right now, and that is why the share price bounces up and down, and that is why we have no institutions with major shareholdings. And please don't claim that KE is actually some Far East investment house. A TR1 has to state the final beneficial owner for full transparancy - that is the whole point of having to file it.

There are lots of dots that can be joined to show incredible potential, and I'm sure some of those dots will be joined at the upcoming investors meeting. But, at of today, much of what Mr Bateman states is factually accurate - whether we like to hear it or not.

We still need much more clarity on the port. Hopefully that will come in the next few days and - more importantly - be confirmed by Zioc.

What is clear today is how much effect rumour and speculation can have on the share price. A few hours delay in hearing anything about the port signing, and the share plunges 20%. Snippets of positive information (but not in any way absolute confirmation) arrive and the share price recovers most of the 20% fall.

Only on AIM I guess.

MM.. Before you type a LOL, take the time to look at previous year's AGM notices on the ZIOC website.

Its a standard resolution that is included EVERY year. It is not new.

"This resolution seeks authority for the Company to make market purchases of its issued Shares and is proposed as a special resolution. If passed, the resolution gives authority for the Directors to purchase up to 42,480,155 Shares, being equal to 15% of the Company’s issued shares as at the date of this Notice."

I am pretty sure this is a standard resolution that has been in every one of the last six or so AGMs with being enacted.

Mystifies me too, although I do think the shortage of shares/small free float thing is a bit of a myth. It certainly hasn't happened yet anyway.

The MM seem to know that there are, or will be, plenty of sellers to match the buys. I guess it will only be when there aren't enough available shares to fill the large buys that the price will rise substantially.

...are down today - TLW, ENQ, BP., RDSA etc - which is strange with the current POO.

PMO is down more than the rest though, and that must be due to the upcoming bondholders conversion on the 6th.

Until then it has to be a buying opportunity for anyone with spare funds.

Yes, an excellent summary as always from MM of the upcoming and exciting developments.

Something that we have to remember though, in my opinion, is that we might be still some way from the share price reflecting the huge potential. We have only really got back to 20p because of the TR1 guy who has accumulated 6%. To make the next step up, we really need another large investor (an institution hopefully) getting involved - and I have a feeling that institutions will only jump in when there is definite news from the company about financing of the EPP. That, hopefully, will not be too far away.

Until then, for the share price to rise, we need more buyers than sellers. The big buyer (or buyers as I think there might have been others who stopped short of the 3% TR1 filing level) appear to be taking a rest - maybe to let the share price sink back a little. But for us to hit the 50p+ mark, we need confirmation of the EPP as I don't think there are enough small investors like ourselves to move the share price up on our own. Many of us are I'm sure, like me, pretty much fully invested.

All inmo of course.

I don't think anything will be announced at the AGM that is not part of the 2017 Annual Report document, unless a specific question is asked by shareholders about about timescale on an updated NPV.

I'm sure its in the pipeline, but a NPV update well be later in September after the port sign off is announced. Not at all sure it will be an independent NPV, but that would definitely be the way to go as regards attracting finance etc.

"Clearly a sell. Anyone can see that"

OK Malkster, so you are right (as always) and everyone else is wrong. As MM says, you now have until Tuesday to stew on that. Not that it really matters if it was a buy or sell with the high level of buys this week.

Also 900,000 more shares were bought today than were sold. I guess MMs will have to fill that gap on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Showing as a 250,000 share buy at 21.15p to me, followed five minutes later by a 100,000 share buy at 21.83p. Both around 2pm this afternoon.

Yes we can all see which way this share is heading, but that shouldn't stop any of us asking relevant questions. Yes, the sp has risen from 9p to 20+p, but prior to that it fell back to 9p too.

If the free float was as small as we thought and if shares were hard to buy, we would be in the 30s or more by now.

Why should asking a serious question be considered deramping?

"How is it that considering the supposed miniscule freefloat a single actor can accumulate 17 million shares without as much as a twitch to the sp?"

That also puzzles me. While I agree the free float is getting smaller by the day, I don't think it was as small as we speculated it was. We know that Artemis sold out, but they started selling last year. Maybe some entities that received shares from the Garbet distribution last year are selling out too?

The only other answer can be that the shares have been picked up from short term holders selling for short term profits. Either way, there has not been any shortage of shares to feed the massive recent buying.

""Clifford Elphick holding 88,730,397 shares or 31.83% of issued share capital (31st Dec 2017) which was the same as the year before. However, Michael Haworth now holds 13,629,127 or 4.89% of issued share capital (31st Dec 2017) which is considerably less than the year before (115,671,186 shares or 41.49%)"

"The redistribution of those ~115m shares from Garbet Ltd (of whom Haworth is a director) to it's shareholders & parent company was detailed at length in the RNS of 03/04/17."

Ok. I've got it now. Thanks to everyone who explained. I must have got too bogged down in reading the annual report!

With the large buys over the past few weeks, we must be due a TR1 again soon I would have thought. My hope would be for a institution to declare its position.

"Clifford Elphick holding 88,730,397 shares or 31.83% of issued share capital (31st Dec 2017) which was the same as the year before. However, Michael Haworth now holds 13,629,127 or 4.89% of issued share capital (31st Dec 2017) which is considerably less than the year before (115,671,186 shares or 41.49%)"

This to me is interesting. Was this reduction ever notified officially? I realise Mr Haworth is no longer a director, but surely a reduction in holdings of this level should have been RNS'd?

Does anyone know the reason behind this? Or was it indeed RNS'd?

Why is it a "scandal"? The debt is exactly where they said it would be in the last update, and is predicted to fall significantly in the second half.

And what has "recent oil prices" got to do with it? This is a half year report to June only.

If the POO stays in the $70-$80 range during the second half, then debt reduction will be at the higher end of expectations - and may even exceed expectations.