Member Info for MisterPositive

Copl 40% 95MMbo. Rec. www.upcomingdrills.com

Why only 414 odd barrels? I thought initial rates previously reported at HH were higher than this...from memory. Has the rate gone down from original estimates? Have not followed it lately, so not sure what is going on here...need some clarification.

Yep. Nice video. Gives a better understanding of the process involved for any novice investor. One strike and chain reaction should follow. Lots of moving parts here as we dealing with not 1 but 6 fully funded drills all in the next 12 months. Should know a lot more by next summer. If all goes well, then this could be trading well over £1.00 next year.

Mannan, Just based on profitability, using the no.2 scenario of 15,000 bopd (from the list) would generate $137m profit annually @$25/barrel profit. Take 40% share for copl and you get c.$54.75m profit p.a. (i.e. 2.76p/share). Multiply that by number of years of Production, e.g. 25 years. I don't have exact resource size so making an assumption here of 136.875m barrels (15,000 x 365 x 25 yrs). Using profitability method: Valuation per share before Discounting future cash flows = 68.9p a share. (2.756 x 25 years) = 68.9p Even after discounting by 50% potential future valuation could be around 34.5p/share. I am sure Equity analysts will come up with their own Price targets in coming months. Above are my own estimates based on certain assumptions; using $75 Brent Crude price & $50 breakeven cost/ barrel. Please DYOR.

Even now Ukog is over +£100m MCap. Copl MCap £9m ???...crazy low. Given the 6000-10000 bopd to come online for starters at Copl...,This is 10x Bagger minimum. Imho

Think your 0.63 will soon look like bargain entry price. I bought a million at 0.64 and looking for 10x bags minimum.

initially 10,000 bopd from first well. Then 2x Appraisal wells adding 5000 bopd each. That would be 20,000 bopd down the road. Using only $25/barrel profit, we get following profit projections annually. (1) 10,000 bopd = $91m profit (2) 15,000 bopd = $137m (3) 20,000 bopd = $182m (4) 25,000 bopd = $228m Take your 40% share of the license and the Annual profit alone comes to Multiples of current low MCap.

Schlumberger is my guess too as being the Service provider putting up the $100m. As per Art M, Schlumberger recently put up $700m nearby.

Buccaneer, Excellent work dude. That is why everyone loves the geology in Mongolia which has remained untapped for too long. Things about to change soon.

Dude, That's lot of homework for the weekend...lol Geology is good. Next few months should give us confirmation of the massive potential here.

This is 10-15 Bagger in my view. 6-9p range once Production underway and this is very conservative view. Could go lot higher as current MCap is extremely low for an Oil explorer soon to transition to an Oil producer.

From EIA report (2013)....

"The organic-rich shales of Mongolia are thermally immature near the surface, locally forming combustible oil shale, but reach oil maturity (maximum Ro of 0.8 to 1.0%) in deeper areas ranging from 7,000 to 8,000 ft."

"Within the 4,690-mi2 high-graded prospective area of the Unegt and Zuunbayan troughs in the East Gobi Basin, the Lower Cretaceous Tsagaantsav Formation contains an estimated 300 ft (net) of organic-rich lacustrine shale at an average depth of 8,000 ft. TOC averages an estimated 4.0% and is oil-prone (Ro averaging 0.8%). "

Potential resources:

* 55 TCF (gas).
* 85 billion barrels of risked shale gas and shale oil in place,
* Oil gravity averages 28° API

Dusty, Great post. Agree with what you outlined. I think they should encounter Oil shows in the deeper zones. Does not mean there is no Oil from shallower targets. Both could be Oil bearing. The US EIA report that I looked at pointed out that deeper zones are more likely to be Oil rich and specifically quoted 8000-10000 feet (i.e. c.2400 to 3000 metres). On my phone...so don't have the exact content. Will post bit later.

Yogurt, Great post. Just today I came across a video by Shell showing the drilling process. Excellent watch to gain a better understanding of the drilling process. Will post the link later on. Yes, mostly what you covered is in that you tube video, size of drill bits, casing, cementing at diff levels, etc. It's not a straight through drill. Multiple stages involved.

He only touched on Mozambique licence towards the end of the interview, only after asked by the host.

Equally prospective for both lot of Oil and Gas.

Immediate focus is Nigeria (OPL226) to monetise the asset & revenue generation from the EPS (Early Production System).

Sooner Copl start exporting, sooner the Nigerian Govt. starts earning their Royalties & Taxes.

Ronin,

My own guesstimate is 45-50 days to reach TD.

Next Thursday, will be full 30 days.

2nd half of August could be where things start getting very interesting on MULTIPLE fronts.

In the meantime can only sit tight and wait for further News and Operational updates.

as per Art Mullholand.....

things could change soon folks.

Art Mullholand...

...."right now we have designed a facility / platform to be able to export little north of 25,000 bopd"...

SM123,

We all going through the same pain.

Any Upside surprise from SL will bring this back to life.....starting with next week.

I think price could start to run UP ahead of both FDP presentation to NNPC and the Service Provider agreement.

It is a simple formality in my view.

Everyone wants to get that Oil out.