Member Info for Mirasol

6 -7 months to finalise a legal agreement - no wonder the big boys avoid the UK onshore................

Still - they can now get on with Saltfleetby ........

Someone sold 2,091,180 @0.676... looks like a lot of trades just below 0.7

PCS - Reservoir engineering is all about balancing production rates against pressure behavior - long term maximization of recoverable volumes requires careful management of pressures - hence the need for water or gas injection in many fields.

HH has beaten many forecasts so far - no water seen for a long time, steady rates and (apparently) little pressure decline. If they up the rates without reinjection they will expect , and plan for, greater pressure declines. No doubt this is an issue addressed in the revised FDP submission to the OGA - who are very hot on maximising long term number

"Why is there so little focus on decline rates on this board"

Several reasons - firstly companies very rarely announce decline rates - they can be found in CPR's if they publish the whole document (which is rare TBH). Secondly you actually need quite a bit of stable production to be able to draw a decent line through the data - an EWT when you are switching horizons, chokes, pump rates etc isn't a great place to start.

But they do say "modest drawdown" in their latest RNS - I guess that at 200-230 bopd they were seeing very little decline - now they're upping the rates it's starting to show - which is what you'd expect

"As I said initial flow rates are well known to be BS that can be gamed. Just change the choke, or let the pressure build up etc.
Why is there so little focus on decline rates on this board."

Absolutely and one of the worst examples was just down the road with Angus at Brockham - high rates for a micro second fueled rampers like DHC for months until the truth came out. IIRC HH1 had rates of up to 1365 bopd from the Kimm test in 2016 - but that has slipped well down the list recently...................... also 323 from the Portland at the time

SueMay aka Steptoes posted" You do realise Horsehill has been producing oil since 2016 Highlander. Or have you done no research at all lol."

Wrong - it's you who needs to do the research

They ran a 30 day test in summer 2016 - then nothing until summer 2018 - since then they have produced and switched back and forth from the Portland to the Kimm - neither has been produced continuously but the numbers -around 200-230 bopd on each are encouraging.

"UKOG says Horse Hill's ‘commercial production’ is slated for spring"

Which year? It was slated for 2019 IIRC

"They were going to be producing oil then anyway weren't they? And selling it? While doing the EWT?"

Yes - AFAIK the OGA frown on EWT's that are designed purely to make money - they're supposed to be for high science. But they know how dodgy most onshore companies are finance -wise and, as in the case of HH, have turned a very Nelsonian blind eye to what is really a low rate production operation that has been going on for nearly 20 months now. It helps that HHDL/UKOG actually do do the science as opposed to some of their neighbours

Well we did ask for an update.

No mention of a CPR

The technical explanation for the delay is reasonable - slim -line PLT tools that can be run on pipe aren't a common site in NW Europe.

Looks to me like they have put the Kimm way down the list of priorities and are ramping up Portland production to get some money in. They're also having to revise the FDP - no surprise as the reservoir is clearly segmented into at least two Portland sections. Worrying that they don't know EXACTLY where the water is coming from - previous talk of a fracture seems to have been an informed guess rather than real knowledge.

No mention of HH1z Kimm sidetrack, no puff about vast Kimm potential from SS.

And the meeting "approval to increase its authority to allot and issue shares so that it can act swiftly to establish Production via an ability to fund the Company's Horse Hill FDP and to ensure that the Second Deferred Payment can be satisfied." which sounds as if they are worried they don't or won't have enough cash to pay the Second £1mm to Tellurian AND develop the field.

This just looks like further delay and dilution to me. They're becoming another small time onshore oil company where it's always jam tomorrow

What is not good is that they are deferring Kimm production at HH to the future. They are trying to ramp up Portland production. There is no mention of the HH1z sidetrack into the Kimm now or ever - just a possible future dual completion to produce Kimm & Portland from the HH1 well.

No big puff from SS about zillions of barrels of reserves in the Kimm anywhere

"They may just plug the last 100 to 500 feet of the 2500 feet horizontal to eliminate that exposure to the open natural fracture.
At present there is no evidence of water ingress anywhere else in the horizontal."

PCS is correct - that almost certainly what they are going to try. They said the end of he well was in a different pressure regime to the HH1 - so there is geological barrier that is causing the pressure differential. Position the plug correctly and they should be able to keep the water out for some time.................. May affect the upside reserve picture as obviously the field is not quite what they thought it was when they drilled the long horizontal - but that's not unexpected when you don't have 3D seismic

SHD -on 9th January you posted under "Bullish Doji Star Reversal Pattern"

"Next step is To 97p around the 50ma day then onto 1p. Chart Looking strong. GLA! "

What went wrong??? Read the chart upside down??

"At £49 a barrel disposal cost "

That is an astounding amount - I'm sure I remember someone saying that most onshore UK offsite disposal was around £ 10 £ 12 a barrel

Be a bit reasonable mate.

Wingas were running the operation down - it could never make money at the end due to their high overheads, manning cots etc . I have no doubt Angus can operate it at a much lower cost once they have it up and running. And therein lies the issue - it will take 12-18 months minimum - and in that time there is no income here - only expenditure

"I have no recollection of UKOG saying the oil goes to Fawley via the pipeline."

Sorry sjb - we were all trying to find the pipeline that Tymers claimed existed from HH to Fawley....................

Thanks SBJ

HHDL send the crude to hamble - not sure if it then goes across to be refined and then shipped back - looks as if that's not necessary as Hamble handles Wytch Farm crude as well.

Wiki

Hamble fuel terminal was opened by Shell in 1924, whilst BP were still afloat using a converted passenger liner as a fuel tender. In 1930 the two companies formed a joint venture and BP moved to Hamble. This partnership was dissolved in 1976, with the Hamble terminal passing to BP.[7] A recent 2016 attempt to sell off the terminal, was not met with success, however Hoyer now handles BPs bulk fuel road transport operation.[8]

A pipeline runs under Southampton Water from the Fawley oil refinery which supplies the BP fuel terminal at Hamble. This fuel terminal was used to supply PLUTO, during the Invasion of Europe in World War II.[9] The PLUTO pipeline started at Sandown on the Isle of Wight and was supplied by ship from Hamble.[9] The jetty at this fuel terminal was extended in 1943/44 so that more ships could be loaded simultaneously.[9]

Fuel is transported from this depot both day and night, in particular early mornings (between 3am and 6am), by 44 tonne road tankers along the B3397, as well as by pipeline to major industry and airports. Markers showing the route of the pipeline can be seen

Hamble Oil Terminal http://www.solentforum.org/solent/our_economy_and_industries/petrochemical_industry/

The BP terminal on the River Hamble acts as an important hub for the transportation of oil and refined products. At Hamble, crude oil is delivered by pipeline and transported from there to the world’s refineries by seagoing tankers. Refined products reach the terminal by ship and pipeline and are then distributed to customers by road tanker, ship and pipeline. In between arrival at the terminal and subsequent distribution, both crude oil and refined products are stored in a series of large tanks; five tanks are devoted to crude oil and 25 to the range of refined products.

full history here

http://www.hamblehistory.org.uk/shared/attachments.asp?f=7681cf9f%2D705d%2D4a85%2D82fe%2Dc5ef720d7e28%2Epdf&o=17%2D%2D%2DBP%2Dvisit%2Epdf

There is no oil and gas on the IoW as yet.

Once they discover it and test it then you can talk about a pipeline....................

Yes - it connects the big refinery on the west side of the Solent to the Perenco facility on the East side

You can see it on the interactive map at https://www.slpproject.co.uk/interactive-map/

"Tankers are leaving fear not and yet the pipeline is a very obvious choice and yes already exists"

Well he definitely said it..... but seems unable to find it when asked................