Member Info for Mirasol

"Even with 3D seismic the failure rate is very high."

I believe in the offshore Netherlands 3D roughly doubles your chance of success from around 35% to circa 70% - but there's very little chance they'd be able to get a decent 3D at HH - too many houses - especially to the east - and LGW to the south

"My heart goes out to the poor bugger at YA who has to sell these shares everyday. At least they have no worries about job security."

Now that made me laugh - you know its some poor wretch in his first job as well - and he's probably got his boss on his back asking why he can't shift the lot RIGHT NOW!

Sorry young shaver

It's basic physics - if the end of the HH2z is in a separate pressure cell (as stated by UKOG)_ the reservoir has to be segmented - otherwise it would be in the same pressure regime

The last CPR did not contain any barriers or baffles - therefore the assumptions have changed - it's Reservoir Engineering 1.01 I'm afraid

One thing we're all missing - the " likely 10m barrels EUR from the HH Portland" are likely to be less

Since that statement we've heard about water and we've heard the reservoir is pressure segmented.

the water is almost certainly fixable or at least manageable but a segmented reservoir means the assumptions used in the last CPR are incorrect - the whole of the structure to the east may not contribute to the HH2z producer.

hence the delay in the CPR and the need for a revised FDP - at the very least we're looking at another well into that reservoir area to tap those reserves

Our only hope is that the core taken in the HH2 well is significantly better than the log analysis in the HH1 well (which had no core) which may upgrade the numbers local to the HH2

"under-balanced, horizontal drilling"

Good job it's going to be them drilling the wells on Resolution then - looks like a good recipe for stuck pipe IMHO

Well at least he learnt how to spell I guess...................

"Can someone explain this please? And why do UKOG have lots of different Ltd companies listed at companies house? "

Magellan were originally a bunch of Aussie chancers who got into the UK in ?the early 00's?. They were based out of Brisbane for a while and also were in Australia & the USA. They eventually moved their office and registration to Denver I think. Their HH operation was run by a UK subsid (see below for the reason) - Magellan were eventually taken over by some guys who saw a great opportunity to use their US listing and build an LNG import company in the States. When shale gas took off the very nimbly turned it round into an LNG gas EXPORT company that will require $20Bn to succeed - so far they've done quite well and have major backing from companies like Total - they renamed Magellan as Tellurian. They just wanted to get out of the UK so they so farmed out the deal HH to HHDL and eventually sold their interest and their UK company to UKOG - UKOG renamed it to avoid any confusion with a large US based LNG exporter.

A lot of oil assets in the UK, both onshore and offshore, are held through subsidsd that cover only 1 or 2 Licences. The original idea way back was that a) it meant you could keep the assets and the tax in silos b) you could let them go bust without affecting the parent company if you did a Macondo.

b) didn't last long as the Govt said they'd come after the parent anyway and required Parent Company Guarantees for things like liability and work programmes. The system carried on because most Joint Operating Agreements contained preemption - so if Alba(say) sold their share of HHDL to BP then UKOG could just preempt the deal and pay Alba the same money and take their share. This was not liked by potential buyers (as they invested time and money on evaluation) and came away empty handed - and by sellers as it as hard to get any decent interest in an asset with preemption clauses.

A while back the Govt said they would no longer allow Preemption in new JOA's and that they frowned on its use even if it was legal. Since then preemption in the UK has fallen away but the use of asset based subsids continues.........

"They have had a steady source of income since ewt lol. I think they could raise a bank loan right now on 300 ish proven bopd over at least a year imo."

Unfortunately no bank will touch an O&G stock without both a CPR AND their own due diligence. Many have strict rules about this......... they've been burnt before.............

They've narrowed the spread at last ...............

"So admission of no facts at the moment to support any claim Tellurian has sold any shares. Just more assumptions and wild guesses."

Well someone is selling - and in 1 mm share chunks as well - otherwise the price would go up - no? So who is it?? I suspect it's Steptoes TBH

Steptoes - you lambast me for "misleading" about a further dilution and then spend a page telling people exactly how the board will issue new shares "at least once" before we see the sun.............

Thank you you young shaver you!!

"I don't think Tellurian will be keen to sell shares for less than they paid."

You don't understand - UKOG have to pay them £ 1mm by the end of March in addition to previous payments in cash and shares. Those shares will cost UKOG £ 1mm whatever the share price - Tellurian can then hold or sell - at that point they are exposed to the share price. They want out - they've liquidated all their UK onshore assets. If they hold they MAY do better - but they can sell and lock in their £ 1mm (or a large part of it) immediately subject to unknown "orderly market " provisions.

"Tellurian have not issued a TR1 since the last one to say they have sold any shares"

If you'd been an here for a bit longer than a few days you'd know Tellurian haven't been exactly in conformance with issuing TR1's..........................

The big problem with yesterdays RNS is undoubtedly the Board Resolution about further share issues.

If you hold a lot of shares (YA, Tellurian,etc) what is the incentive to hold on knowing another dilution is certainly coming down the tracks? Might as well get out as soon as possible ...

You can wait for the upside but although that looks likely it is not certain and the timings always seem to move to the right onshore UK.

That's why this share will go nowhere until they establish regular production to at least cover their costs - which looks like 400-500 bopd averaged over 6+ months

To get a perspective on delays look at UKOG - its now over 5 years since they discovered HH and they aren't out of the woods yet............. be prepared for some long waits at WN as well. It's not so much the company but the whole onshore UK system - or lack of it........

"Agreed" - not "greed".................

"They, and the industry, have realised the fractured Zechstein gas play, which has been developed by Shell in the Dalen area onshore Netherlands since the 1980s, extends over a large area - onshore and offshore."

greed - but IIRC the Zechstein play was a big target in the early days of the S N Sea but never made it - difficult to produce, hard to forecast, relatively small RF's............ Maybe it's now more attractive....................

" reading up on him his dad was a bit of a con man"

he was a murderer FFS - something that the current incumbent has had to live with all his life poor sod..............

No word on if they are paying their share - the early December RNS said:-

Furthermore, following recent discussions, the Company now anticipates that its Horse Hill Developments Ltd ("HHDL") co-venturers are unlikely to contribute their 14.365% share of current cash calls pertaining to HH-2/2z drilling, HH-1/HH-2z testing and the production related costs detailed above. Consequently, and in addition to the above, the net Proceeds will be used to fund any potential shortfall from the HHDL partners. In this respect, the Company has also submitted a proposal to its HHDL partners to use part of the Proceeds to fully fund their current cash call obligations in return for a commensurate dilution of their holding in HHDL "

So maybe UKOG are having to pay 100% of all the costs........

"I do not understand why they limited themselves to locating the PLT ? There much BIGGER oil developing areas all over the
world, If it was that vital why not get one brought in ? Did not want it?"

Have you ever tried sourcing expensive, complex kit from across the world? - its not Ebay or Amazon... you have to find it , agree a price, get a contract i n place and then arrange shipping. These tools aren't exactly small - and then you have to get them on a plane and through customs etc - I reckon they've done pretty well to source on e in a month TBH