Member Info for Mirasol

"tng a major share in the operating gas well mentioned in the council meeting by one of the members. Apparently close to Loxley. Develop that if it already has the elevant permissions? GLA"

Loxley is in fact an appraisal of Godley Bridge 1 & 2 - normally it would be named Godley Bridge 3 but that's not good PR as GBr never went into production. Gbr1 was drilled in 1983 by Conoco and found gas - they then drilled another well (and a sidetrack to the west at Gbr 2 & 2z - this was a disaster and found nothing - worse it showed the subsurface model was very very wrong.

Conoco walked away - over the years there have been several rumoured parties interested (mainly in gas to wire) and eventually IGas took the acreage but have done nothing with it except come up with a "location" so they can extend the Licence - no sign of any serious activity (well it IS Igas). Loxley is right on the boundary with the GBr licence . There are no permissions for any activity on either the 2 new "locations" or the original well site.

"UKOG do NOT have dry oil"

Toe - you're going too far - it appears the Portland and the Kimm in HH-1 are producing dry oil - and this is 99% of what is going off site whenever they ship. HH-2z has oil and water but is not on production - they seem to flow it on test occasionally and separate out the water before shipping both off site.

The big issues are

1, where is the water coming from and how much of the Portland accumulation is affected?

2. Can they shut it off?

All we know is originally in December they were saying the water all came from the toe of the well - but the last substantive RNS mentioned water coming in in other places. Water is a fact of life in small fields - especially ones that rely on fractures - quite why the Kim doesn't (yet) produce water at HH-1 is a really interesting technical question.

"This may be an odd question but is there another oil company that could takeover and do this properly?"

I think it's a very fair question - unfortunately the answer isn't encouraging. No oil company of any size is interested in the Onshore UK (other than at Wytch Farm) - the discoveries are too small, the politics and PR are toxic and it takes decades to get anywhere. The last big player was INEOS and they've moved all their interest, people and investment offshore. The players that are left are all small outfits with financing issues and low production.

You have three players who might be interested if they could get UKOG for almost nothing - IGAS are the biggest , painfully slow moving and dull and just about make a profit in a good year, Egdon are well run but small and may have to get a raise in to bring Wressle (2-3 mm barrels) on stream. Union Jack have (allegedly) enough money to pay their share of West Newton and Wressle but otherwise would have to dilute to buy UKOG. The rest (Europa, Angus et al) are dross.

None of the main three could afford UKOG at the current price and with the commitments it has - if it drops to maybe £ 10mm market cap someone might be willing to put us out of our misery

" and what does the joker Kieran Mozzarella does for his big cheese money ?"

Well TBF he does manage to get the cash in - quite a talent there - my beef is with the other 2 Directors - one in the States whose companies profit directly from work from UKOG and the Sleeping Beauty from Hurricane - and neither invested of course.

"We should not forget that outside of the Wytch Farm Field, HH-1 is currently the UK onshore's most productive well. (RNS of 30/06)"

Which is exactly why no decent oil company is interested in the Onshore UK (other than Wytch Farm) - it's all small or very small fields many of which have technical issues. They've been drilling wells for 70+ years an only found one big oil field - and a small /medium one at Welton back 35 years ago.

"SS cannot be held responsible for COVID, nor the OPEC countries having a spat with the US. The SP would be much healthier without both of those."

Wrong - the problems that have crater the price are :-

1. remorseless dilution going on month after month

2. Lack of an y positive news about HH2z (which was supposed to flow at a minimum of 3x HH1 remember)

3. lack of any news onteh Kimmeridge

4. No communication about forecast production of long term plans

5. No CPR

6. No director buy-in

I can't see how they can go back to Broadford Bridge before 2023 at the earliest.

Priority 1 is they have to solve the issues at HH-2z, re-complete HH1, drill some more producers and maybe an injector at HH.

Priority 2 - probably Isle of Wight - possible big discovery (but risky) but would be a major boost - say drill late 2021/early 2022 (assuming planning refused, public inquiry et etc)

Priority 3 - Loxley/Godley Bridge/Dunsfold - 2022 - relatively target, relatively low (or lower) risk - but gas

Priority 4 - Broadfrod Bridge - 2023

THE main focus has to be on getting decent production at HH - the sweep I ran earlier this year didn't have a single punter guessing at less than 400 bopd and we're still nowhere near that. Any new drilling means even more fund raising......

"ukog and angs are exchanging notes/ cooperating." Evidence? UKOG never went anywhere near Brockham and Tidswell left UKOG when Sanderson came on board - I don't think there's a lot of love lost there.

"The interesting part may be the part about other operators which may mean a farm or with costs covered or a partner?"

Other operators means other licences - so it must be Angus the're waiting on... Brockham is a dog and they aren't moving very quickly on Balcombe (which is now 7 years old and is probably another dog) so don't get your hopes up.

"Most hate private business, innovation and jobs creation"

Actually most of them are Tories here - what else do you expect in the S of England - but they are driven by the same forces as the Labour ones that tried to stop Egdon in Lincolnshire. Onshore oil and gas is very unpopular with the locals as they are afraid it will affect the price of their houses. The Councillors see few new jobs, a bit of cash and a lot of hassle. As they want to be re-elected to do do other things - run schools, repair roads, control new housing ' this is a very annoying sideshow that could cost them their seats .

You could say such applications should be decided by C Govt but be careful - when they decide to build a motorway past the end of YOUR garden and you have no say you may feel differently .

I've heard the Govt would actually be quite happy if the Onshore disappeared - the production (outside Wytch Farm) is so low and insignificant it's not worth the hassle.

"Could it be that they have already installed gas to wire facilities and are both generating electricity and pumping oil."

Since he didn't mention it last week when he needed as much good news as he could find I really doubt it

I see he's turned up as Oilgushing with he "UKUtd" badge and the awful English again.

Chitty - I've been following O&G shares for 30 years and that's what people pay - non producing discoveries (ie NOT Proven) were going at $4-$7 in 2017/18 -eg Equinor (statoil) paid Barra Energia $ 4.84 per bbl (after tax) for around 100mmbbl offshore Brazil. back in 2015 Goldman Sachs published a paper that showed deals for 2P (proven + Probable reserves) were between $ 9.4 and $13 a barrel worldwide when forecast oil prices were starting to fall from highs. A lot depnds on how much you want to get into an area - Hannon Westwood published numbers showing asset value of deals for N Sea oil were over $25 a barrel in 2010-2011

You seem to pay less than a dollar for "blue sky" exploration reserves, then maybe $ 1-$3 for oil found but not developed and maybe $ 3-$10 for oil coming into development

"Angus just used to use a virtual office prior to Lucan." i don't think that's true - I think they've had the Chiswick office for some time and I was told that's where the operations (and all the folk Alan2017 sigh ****s off) are run from. The Mayfair address look like a legal/ commercial brass plate operation.

Are the increased rentals due to picking up 50% of whatever SFB costs to rent ?

Wiz - the problem is any new venture will cost money if it has any real value - and if it is already producing it will cost around $10-$20 a barrel for the proven producing reserves. UKOG don't have $10-$20 mm in the bank to buy a small field.

it's what we need but I expect what they're thinking of is another of those exploration/development prospects that have been the death of Solo, Northern, MidMar, Europa etc etc

Exploration

i'm sure Trans-oceans legal costs (also awarded by the judge) will far exceed £ 80 k - that's only a few days work for a top barrister.

Also the shot across the bows threatening a couple of years in the slammer as possibility she thought of. I've always thought it was a pity Mr Putin didn't send the GP protesters on a Russian rig to Siberia for 10 years hard labour - it would have "sent a message"

"As the oil price recovers to $60+ with the world coming out of lockdown UKOG's timing of bring wells on stream will go hand in hand."

Troll - the last RNS said nothing about new wells being drilled anytime soon - and no word on more wells at HH - which is where the oil is. We're looking at 300-360 bopd for the foreseeable future - if the price of oil goes up by $20 a bbl that's only another £ 4-£5 k a day - enough to keep the lights on but nothing else.

"Why doesn't UKOG immediately appealed this lunatic SCC vote, they will win an an appeal, for sure.. i"

the problem is the appeal procedure takes over a year - you put in an appeal against the decision, the Govt appoints a Planning Inspector he spends month gathering information and then there is a Public Enquiry - look how long it took Egdon to overturn a similar Horlicks at Wressle.

I think we have ot be realistic about the need to spend some cash now on projects other than HH. As the ridiculous planning meeting showed it can take 2-3 years to negotiate the bureaucracy and get a decision that allows UKOG to actually start work. If they don't spend the money now we might be looking at 2025 to drill Loxley/Dunsfold and the IoW even further away.

I can't see any PI's being very happy with that. They need to keep going - and that means paying people but I think overall they need to cut costs so they can live within 300-350 bopd while progressing other targets. Egdon do it - but they don't pay bonuses.....

A lot of people are calling for SS's head (or other body parts)

I can't see how this will happen - the BoD are all very close to him - the FD predates his appointment and goes back to the Lenigas era, the Chairman is someone whose various companies have been major contractor/advisor to the company and Mardon -Taylor has never been heard to say a word.

There is no really big single II and the PI's almost all hold their shares through dealing companies like HL or Barclays - which makes it very difficult to vote or bring pressure.

We're in the same state as many other AIM minnows where , unless we get lucky, the same team will be there forever - Solo, Infrastrata, Europa....................