Member Info for Mirasol

"If we get anywhere near a decent fraction of that OIP (9m barrels), the value to the company could be £60-70m and we have 80% of that licence".

Pity he didn't mention the problem with water and the cost of water disposal........................

"Excellent news. Fully desrisked now. investors will take positions now without worry."

Financing is derisked but not the drilling and production I'm afraid

"Why are the existing directors not resigning or holding a GM as per Crystal Amber's requisition?"

My problem is that I think CA have left it far too late to get involved - if they had worries they could have started action for a meeting several months ago. Leaving it until now just makes it easy for the BoD & the Bondholders

The UKOG BoD are ... not active - you have SS (nuf said), Alan Howard - who is in Texas and is a major provider of services to UKOG, Kiran M. who is one of Lenigas's boys, and Mardon-Taylor - who has never given an interview nor said anything in public. It really is a closed group who never listen to the shareholders - or anyone else for that matter

Ocelet - if the history of the oil business proves one thing its that operating costs increase with the oil price.

Sure everyone cuts things to the bone when the price is low but every contractor and consultant will be edging up their margins in line with the rise in the OP. Numbers given 12-24 months ago will be well under the prices they will be quoted now

"Yes, they have and they can get back their principal even without restructuring. That is the basis of shareholder activism here."

And the Board, all their advisors and the Bond Holders disagree............

"Loxley to play out in the coming months. Technically that's a slam dunk "

loxley is actually Godley Bridge - presumably they changed the name due to the sparkling lack of success at GBr2 which missed the reservoir section completely IIRC - and no new seismic has been acquired to help since then. Even the original XODUS CPR refused to say that the structure closes the way UKOG map it...................

"Credit, via bonds, can be regenioiatied, with bondholders still earning interest."

But what if they have a legal right to get their Principal back?

Must be a new allocation of cash for ramping - a few of the oldsters and the usual influx of "new" names..............

"I may have missed some information somewhere on this but I would like to know who are the Bond holders ?."

Not publicly available - there is no requirement for the Company to tell anyone

In fact in many cases even the companies themselves only have a hazy idea who they may be

"In the past, not a lot of interest was shown by issuers in communicating with their bondholders unless there was an absolute need, and even then the communication simply consisted of a notice sent through the trustee and would eventually not necessarily reach all the beneficial owners."

"All these figures about water cut are a long way from the dry oil that was talked about a few years ago, will 50% water long term make this dead in the water ?"

50% water cut doesn't necessarily mean a field isn't worth still producing - it depends on the absolute volume of oil an, the production cost and the cost of water disposal. Since UKOG have never given these numbers in any detail its impossible to be absolutely certain. Onshore UK small fields have been operated down to around 50 bbl of oil per day and with water cuts up to 75%. If they could re-inject on site that would be a major saving as every tanker of water costs as much as a tanker of oil and you get no income from it. It may also be worth producing at a small daily loss to defer a big slug of abandonment costs

"We also have no idea if the well has been producing every day or at what level. The results for the last 4 months provided are pretty steady apart from a big slug of water last month."

This is of course correct - the company never tells us anything and the OGA don't publish data on days actually producing - this is because the system is set up for, and most concerned with, large offshore operations with multiple wells and and large volumes . TBH I'm amazed they bother with things like HH - the rest of the OGA certainly don't.

One of the reasons PE's look at the longer term production is that it smoothes out blips due to workovers, maintenance and all sorts of minor glitches October 2020 was a zero production month because of well site activity but it would be ridiculous to take it into account for long term forecasts.

My real problem is that UKOG have never given any forward guidance on specific numbers - which almost every other company does

"Stabilising oil flow and reducing water cut looks good to me ;-)"

PE's don't look tt single month - they look at the longer term trends - water cut was up 5% in Jan and is now down 4% in February - the overall trend tho is clear - it started out at less than 1% last March and it's now over 30%........... Total FLUID production was 244 bbld in April 20 and in February had fallen to 141 bbl

reservoir looks like its performing in a very predictable manner

We now have 11 months of data courtesy of the OGA

Oil decline curve suggests we'll be at 50-55 bopd by year end and water average increase of just over 3 bbl a month means we'll reach 50% water cut around July/Aug this year

"Where was spent all 230mil dollars? "

You have seen pictures of the FPSO, the sub-service pipelines and all the sea floor kit I suppose? these things cost serious money

Mirasol
You forgot BB1-Z.

Not really BB1 & 1z were a continuous operation - but the cost!!!

"While these projects seem to take time to establish & gain production licences each licence & drill potentially adds to the core strength with it's reserves / contingent reserves."

The current BoD has drilled 2 wells in 7 years - Broadford Bridge 1 and HH2/2z - they have not added to the value, nor production, nor reserves.

"It is worked out from completion date not spud date so BB info should appear at the end of July and September."

that's the earliest date - in general the OGA & the BGS are very lax on enforcing dates. I was told that unless one of the data licencors (the people you have to buy the data from) request it it can wait for a year or so. It's one of those jobs that is absolutely at the bottom of the list of priorities - especially at the company that drilled the well - someone has to be detailed to collect all the required data, check it and then send it off - a real pain and no kudos.

"Isn't it about time that the full technical data set for HH be released to public domain. "

there are standard regulations about releasing well results, well tests etc - its about 4 years so we should get Broadford Bridge 1 in the next year. The OGA publishes production numbers 3 months in arrears. Detailed studies my never be published - or only after many many years when they finish up at the British Geological Survey.

Of course almost ever oil company gives forward guidance on expected production and summary details of past production - except UKOG

what else do you want on someone's CV?

bp Total Duration22 yrs 9 mos

Title Senior Vice President - North Sea me
Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom

Title VP Reservoir Development - Gulf of Mexico & Canada
Houston, Texas

Title VP Reservoir Development - Functional Performance
Sunbury-on-Thames, United Kingdom

Title VP Reservoir Development - North Africa
Cairo, Egypt

Title Manager, Base Management - BP Alaska
Anchorage, Alaska, USA

TitleManager, Base Management (Production) - BP Alaska (Milne, Endicott & Northstar)
Anchorage, Alaska, USA

Title Subsurface Team Lead, BP Alaska - Milne Point
Location Anchorage, Alaska, USA

Title Executive Assistant, Reservoir & Wells Function
Sunbury-on-Thames, United Kingdom

Title Reservoir Engineer, BP Angola - Block 31
LocationSunbury-on-Thames, United Kingdom

Title Petroleum/ Reservoir Engineer, BP North Sea - Wytch Farm
Wytch Farm, United Kingdom

Title Development Engineer, BP North Sea - Forties Pipeline System
Location Grangemouth, United Kingdom

Title Production Engineer, BP North Sea - ETAP

Shell Summer Intern