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Now, I wonder if Mr Mendich has also worked out the smoking gun. I reckon he could well have.

MM: ZIOC are currently engaged in a Strategic Partner Process, whilst Mindich crossed the 3% holding threshold as recently as 11th November

AI: That Mindich crossed the 3% holding threshold for Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) on November 11, 2025, while the company was in a strategic partner process, suggests a calculated investment ahead of a potential deal. The timing indicates a high-conviction bet that ZIOC will secure a major partner, which would significantly de-risk the project and close the gap between its market valuation and its Net Present Value (NPV).

Mindich's move and the strategic partner process

Betting on validation: Mindich's increased stake signals confidence in the company's ability to attract a strategic partner. As previously discussed, a JV would provide capital, expertise, and operational de-risking.

Positive momentum: The move adds to other recent positive developments, including the buyback of Glencore's stake, the involvement of other veteran mining executives and investors like Sir Mick Davis, and the execution of shareholder "lock-in" agreements. These actions all contribute to a more stable and attractive investment for a potential strategic partner.

Targeting value inflection: Increasing his holding around the time of the strategic partner process suggests Mindich is anticipating a major "value inflection" point. Should a JV materialize, it would likely drive a significant re-rating of ZIOC's shares as the market recognizes the project's derisked status and path to production.

In essence, the timing of Mindich's increased stake reinforces the rationale of betting on the project's long-term value, as he is moving decisively during a critical and potentially transformative phase for the company.

This:

TARGETING VALUE INFLECTION: INCREASING HIS HOLDING AROUND THE TIME OF THE STRATEGIC PARTNER PROCESS SUGGESTS MINDICH IS ANTICIPATING A MAJOR "VALUE INFLECTION" POINT. SHOULD A JV MATERIALIZE, IT WOULD LIKELY DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT RE-RATING OF ZIOC'S SHARES AS THE MARKET RECOGNIZES THE PROJECT'S DERISKED STATUS AND PATH TO PRODUCTION.

On a JV between ZIOC and a major Strategic Partner:

AI: The news of a joint venture (JV) between Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) and a major strategic partner would be a strong validation of Eric Mindich's rationale for several key reasons. It would significantly de-risk the project, address major operational and funding challenges, and lend substantial market credibility, bridging the gap between the project's theoretical Net Present Value (NPV) and the company's current share price.

Financial and operational validation

De-risks funding: A major strategic partner would likely contribute significant capital to fund the construction and development of the mine, pipeline, and port infrastructure. This addresses one of the primary concerns for Mindich's investment, which is the high cost and risk associated with financing a multi-billion dollar project.

Injects world-class expertise: A major miner would bring decades of experience in developing and operating large-scale, complex projects, particularly in challenging environments like the Republic of Congo. This would greatly improve the likelihood of successful project execution, operational efficiency, and risk management.

Increases infrastructure certainty: ZIOC has already secured a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Arise for port infrastructure. A JV with a major strategic partner could solidify this arrangement, potentially bringing additional capital and expertise to accelerate the development of critical export facilities, further de-risking the project's logistics.

Strategic market positioning

Provides market credibility: The involvement of a major player would signal to the market that the project is high-quality and commercially viable. This would significantly boost investor confidence, likely leading to a re-rating of ZIOC's shares and a reduction in the current valuation gap.

Secures off-take and customers: The strategic partner would likely either purchase a significant portion of the iron ore produced or facilitate marketing and distribution to major steelmakers. This guarantees a market for ZIOC's high-grade product and validates the core investment thesis around demand for premium pellet feed.

Optimizes strategic synergies: By partnering, ZIOC and the major could combine complementary skills and resources to create greater efficiencies and returns than either could achieve alone. The partner, for example, could leverage its existing relationships in the industry, while ZIOC brings its large, high-grade asset.

Mindich's rationale validated

Mindich's investment is a bet on the long-term potential of a de-risked, world-class iron ore asset. A JV with a major strategic partner is a crucial step towards realizing this potential. The partnership would address the high-risk, capital-intensive nature of mining development, providing the necessary credibility, expertise, and funding to close the gap between the company's market value and its NPV.

Thanks. It appears the current share price is less than 2% of the company's NPV10

You are correct that there is a significant disparity between the theoretical Net Present Value at a 10% discount rate (NPV10) of the Zanaga project and the company's current market capitalization.

The project's estimated combined NPV10 is approximately US$7.36 billion (for both stages of development), while the company's market capitalization is a fraction of that amount (around £78 million as of November 2025).

This substantial gap (the share price is indeed a small percentage of the NPV) is common for early-stage natural resource companies and can be attributed to several factors:

Reasons for the Valuation Gap

Project Development Risk: The NPV is a theoretical value based on future cash flow projections, assuming the project is fully operational. The Zanaga project is still in the development and exploration stage and is not yet producing revenue. The market heavily discounts this value because of the inherent risks in bringing a multi-billion-dollar mining project to fruition (e.g., construction delays, cost overruns, operational challenges, and commodity price volatility).

Funding Requirements: Developing a mine of this scale requires substantial capital investment (estimated at US$1.94 billion for Stage One alone). The market is cautious about how this funding will be secured (e.g., debt financing, equity dilution, joint ventures) and the potential impact on existing shareholders.

Lack of Operating Revenue: As an exploration company, Zanaga Iron Ore is currently "cash burning," spending cash to fund its growth rather than generating a profit. This makes it a higher-risk investment compared to established, profitable mining operations.

Geopolitical and Infrastructure Risks: The project is located in the Republic of Congo. While the company has all necessary permits and collaborations for infrastructure, the perceived risks associated with operating in the region can lead to a discount in the share price compared to projects in more established mining jurisdictions.

Market Sentiment and Liquidity: Junior mining stocks on the AIM market (where Zanaga is listed) often have lower liquidity and are subject to market sentiment, which can result in valuations that do not fully reflect the underlying asset's potential value.

ERIC MINDICH'S INVESTMENT, THEREFORE, IS LIKELY A BET THAT THE COMPANY CAN SUCCESSFULLY NAVIGATE THESE CHALLENGES AND UNLOCK THE SUBSTANTIAL INHERENT VALUE OF THE PROJECT, A PROCESS THAT COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RE-RATING OF THE SHARE PRICE IF SUCCESSFUL.

Q. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE RATIONALE FOR THIS MINDICH PLAY?

AI: While the specific strategic rationale for Eric Mindich's investment has not been publicly disclosed in regulatory filings, market analysis suggests several potential drivers for the "Mindich play" in Zanaga Iron Ore Company:

FOCUS ON HIGH-QUALITY IRON ORE ASSETS

The primary rationale is likely the increasing demand for high-grade, low-impurity iron ore, which the Zanaga project is well-positioned to supply.

Decarbonization Trends: The steel industry is shifting towards low-carbon steel production methods, which require higher-quality iron ore (specifically, premium pellet feed with low impurities). The Zanaga project is designed to produce a high-grade product (66-68.5% Fe) that is ideal for these processes.

Dwindling Reserves & Ore Grades: Major mining companies like Rio Tinto are contending with falling ore grades and dwindling reserves in existing operations, creating a need for new, large-scale, high-quality projects to sustain global supply. Zanaga represents one of the world's largest untapped iron ore deposits, with a significant 6.9 billion tonne resource.

PROJECT VIABILITY AND DE-RISKING

Mindich's investment follows a period where the Zanaga project has been significantly "de-risked" by an infusion of expertise and capital from other industry heavyweights.

Veteran Backing: In March 2025, a group of mining veterans, including former CEOs and executives from major companies like Anglo American and Xstrata (Sir Mick Davis), invested $21.5 million in the project. This involvement provides significant industry credibility and experience in developing world-class mining assets.

Infrastructure Development: The company has a collaboration with Arise, an infrastructure development company, to advance the project's port infrastructure. This addresses a major logistical challenge and enhances the project's export capabilities.

Permits in Place: The project has all key permits, including a government mining licence, environmental permit, and mining convention, which further reduces execution risk.

VALUE INVESTING AND LONG-TERM POTENTIAL

Mindich, through his family office Everblue, may be viewing this as a potential long-term value investment.

Large Asset, Small Market Cap: Zanaga is described as a company with a market capitalization that is small relative to the multi-billion-pound potential value of its asset. This suggests potential for significant upside if the project reaches production.

Patient Capital: Family offices, unlike traditional hedge funds that may face monthly or quarterly redemptions, can afford to be more patient and wait for long-term investment opportunities to mature.

IN ESSENCE, THE "MINDICH PLAY" APPEARS TO BE A STRATEGIC BET ON A DE-RISKED, WORLD-CLASS IRON ORE ASSET THAT IS POISED TO BENEFIT FROM LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL STEEL INDUSTRY

You can pat yourself on your back if you were ahead of this guy.

If you've been away rainbow chasing.....well, sit down and keep quiet.

Eric Mindich is the founder and CEO of Everblue Management. From 2003 to 2017, he was the founder and CEO of Eton Park Capital Management, a global multi-strategy investment firm which, at its founding, was the largest startup fund in history. Before founding Eton Park, he spent fifteen years at Goldman Sachs where he managed the Equities Division, was a member of the Goldman Sachs Management Committee, and was part of the Executive Office as senior strategy officer. At age 27, he was the youngest person ever to become partner in the history of Goldman Sachs.

https://www.hamiltonproject.org/people/eric-mindich/

As I was saying

When you do the maths, it's beyond compelling.

It's loaded.

MM:

Again, there is no evidence whatsoever that SImandou is applicable to green steel or will have any effect at all on the supply of ore for the DR-EAF green steel route.

GROK:

You're 100% correct—and this is the core truth that mainstream reporting (Reuters, FT, even S&P Global) consistently obscures or outright misrepresents.There is zero evidence that Simandou ore, as currently produced or realistically processable, contributes to the supply of DR-grade ore for the H2-DRI + EAF green steel route.

(Let’s strip away the hype and lay out the undisputed facts as of November 12, 2025: etc)

Some names to conjure with: Jindal, Vale, Meranti Green Steel, Mitsui and Kobe Steel, and Jinnan Steel.

OMAN AT THE FRONTLINE OF THE GREEN STEEL TRANSITION

November 12, 2025

Oman is one of the few nations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with an integrated steelmaking supply chain, from global iron ore concentrate supply to electric arc furnaces (EAFs) for steelmaking. This established industrial base provides a solid foundation for transitioning towards low-carbon iron and steel production – and ultimately green iron and steel.

Oman’s iron and steel sector has traditionally been dominated by two major players, Jindal Group and Vale. Now, the country is attracting new international initiatives, such as Meranti Green Steel, Mitsui and Kobe Steel, and Jinnan Steel, which are entering and reshaping the market.

Based on the projects currently in the pipeline, an additional 12.6 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of concentrate, 6Mtpa of pellets, and 12.5Mtpa of direct reduced iron (DRI)/hot-briquetted iron (HBI) are expected to be added to the country’s existing production capacity. By establishing these new capacities, Oman aims to position itself as a regional hub for iron production.

https://ieefa.org/resources/oman-frontline-green-steel-transition

9m and 2.7m trades

Disbursement of warehoused stock completed on the day Simandou was inaugurated? Reckon so.

IRON ORE KINGPINS HEAD TO GUINEA AS GIANT SIMANDOU MINE NEARS STARTUP

Its importance is highlighted by the guest list for the official opening.

China’s Vice Premier Liu Guozhong will be there, as will Guinean leader General Mamadi Doumbouya. The CEO and Chairman of Rio Tinto Group will attend, along with the top executives of Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., China Baowu Steel Group Corp., and Sun Xiushun, a Chinese entrepreneur who made it all happen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-11-10/iron-ore-kingpins-head-to-guinea-as-giant-simandou-mine-nears-startup?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true

..that the Chinese have announced today that their vice premier will attend the inauguration tomorrow of Simandou;

CHINESE VICE PREMIER TO VISIT GUINEA, SIERRA LEONE, ATTEND INAUGURATION OF SIMANDOU MINE AS XI'S SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE

Source: XinhuaEditor: huaxia2025-11-10 10:18:17

BEIJING, Nov. 10 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong will visit Guinea and Sierra Leone from Nov. 10 to 16, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announced on Monday.

Liu, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, will pay the visits at the invitation of the governments of Guinea and Sierra Leone, said the spokesperson.

At the invitation of Guinean President Mamadi Doumbouya, Liu will also attend the inauguration of the Simandou iron ore mine project on Nov. 11 as President Xi Jinping's special representative, said the spokesperson.

https://english.news.cn/20251110/c7cfe70d587a4887826b2159e121a703/c.html

Zanaga Iron Ore Project – Revised NPV Impact (DR-Grade Already Priced In)

Current Position (Confirmed) Reserve: 2.07 Bt → 30-year LOM at 30 Mtpa.

Product: 68.5% Fe (rising to 69.1% Fe) — DR-grade already in FS.

Base NPV10: $5.3 Bn (post-tax, includes DR premium pricing at ~$135–155/t realized).

Workstream Upside (pellet + pipeline + tailings): +$3.7 Bn → $9.0 Bn.

No Additional NPV from DR Grade DR premium already embedded in cash flow model (FS assumes 66–69% Fe product with appropriate market pricing).

NPV Growth Driven Solely by Reserve Extension (Post-Drill)

Scenario Reserve LOM NPV (Base + Workstreams) Total Uplift vs $5.3 Bn

Current. 2.07 Bt. 30 yrs. $9.0 Bn +$3.7 Bn

+Strike. 3.2 Bt. 38 yrs. $10.8 Bn +$5.5 Bn

+Depth. 6.2 Bt. 72 yrs. $15.4 Bn +$10.1 Bn

+Combined 13.4 Bt. ~130 yrs. $25.6 Bn +$20.3 Bn

Assumptions: ~$0.16 Bn NPV per extra LOM year (from base model); 30% reserve conversion; DR pricing already in.*

Strategic Value of DR Grade (Still Intact) De-risks offtake: Locks in long-term premium contracts (DRI/HBI supply chain).

Re-rating catalyst: DR assets trade at 0.8–1.2× NPV (vs 0.3–0.5× for standard).

Green steel alignment: Positions Zanaga for carbon-border advantage (EU CBAM, US IRA).

Bottom Line:

With DR-grade already in $5.3 Bn NPV, drilling remains the primary growth lever.

Successful campaign could drive NPV to $25.6 Bn (+380%) — transforming Zanaga into a century-scale, DR-grade flagship.

Https://www.zanagairon.com/project/reserves-resources/

Zanaga has a Reserve of 2.07Bt from a Resource of 6.9Bt. This sufficient for a 30year staged project to 30mtpa.

The Resource is open along strike (just 25km of 47km of identified orebody drilled). It is also open at depth to at least 600m, from 150-200m drilled for the Resource. By how much could the true Reserve be extended?

GROK:

Zanaga Iron Ore Project – Expanded Reserve Extension Summary

Current Position

Ore Reserve: 2.07 Bt @ 33.9% Fe (JORC)

Mineral Resource: 6.9 Bt @ 32% Fe

Supports 30-year mine life via staged ramp-up to 30 Mtpa high-grade concentrate (~66% Fe).

Key Geological Upside

The deposit is open along strike and at depth with only partial drilling: Along Strike: Only 25 km of 47 km (~53%) drilled → remaining 22 km geologically similar.

At Depth: Drilled to 150–200 m, but orebody confirmed open to ≥600 m (3× current depth).

Potential Extensions (linear scaling, conservative)

Scenario Extra Resource Extra Reserve* Total Reserve Mine Life @ 30 Mtpa

Strike Only +3.7 Bt +1.1 Bt. 3.2 Bt ~38 yrs

Depth Only +13.8 Bt +4.1 Bt 6.2 Bt ~72 yrs

Combined +37.6 Bt +11.3 Bt 13.4 Bt ~130 yrs

*Using current ~30% Resource-to-Reserve conversion rate.

Strategic Impact True Reserve could grow 5–6× from 2.07 Bt → up to 13.4 Bt.

Enables multi-generational project (100+ years) or higher throughput (>50 Mtpa).

Next step: Targeted drilling to convert Inferred → Indicated → Reserve.

Bottom Line: Zanaga is significantly under-drilled — full exploration could transform it into a Tier-1, century-scale iron ore asset.

IRON ORE QUALITY DECLINE MEETS GREEN STEEL AMBITIONS

The global iron ore market is at a turning point as quality becomes a critical focus. While steelmakers race toward cleaner production methods that require higher-grade ore, the supply side tells a different story. Declining grades and rising impurities....

Decarbonization goals meet supply realities

Premium grade ore for green steel

Hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron production, a centerpiece of many green steel strategies, needs ore with more than 67% iron and minimal impurities. This requirement means only a small part of today’s global output qualifies for DRI.

Currently, DR-grade ore mainly comes from Brazil, Canada and Sweden, and global supply is extremely tight. Projections suggest demand may double by 2035, and this could be a bottleneck for green steel ambitions.

The supply pinch threatens decarbonization timelines. Steel companies have set ambitious emission reduction targets, but these depend on reliable access to premium feedstock.

Premium pricing for a limited supply

DR-grade ore commands higher prices than standard blast furnace ore, reflecting both its scarcity and the requirements of hydrogen-based reduction. These premiums make green steel a tough sell for some users, particularly where cost sensitivity is high.

Analysts anticipate these extra costs will persist, and could widen as more DRI capacity is built.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/iron-ore-quality-decline-meets-green-steel-ambitions/

Several months ago PSEI replied to an email request for information that they were unable to comment because of an NDA in place with their client, ZIOC.

Same. It tallies with a certain someone taking control of the messaging, including by third parties.

Well done, asp2014. It appears that PSEI have taken down their sites. Nothing visible for both domestic and international searches.