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On the lock-in, "This development strongly suggests that negotiations with a major strategic iron ore interest are at an advanced and sensitive stage,..."

AI: As announced on September 29, 2025, Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) entered into six-month lock-in agreements with major shareholders, covering approximately 34.86% of the company's issued share capital. The lock-in is fully restricted and expires on February 26, 2026. This action followed a request from a potential strategic investor involved in ZIOC's strategic partner process.

Key Details from the Announcement:

Trigger: The lock-in was specifically requested by a potential investor.

Strategic Context: This request is a significant development in ZIOC's process of securing a strategic partner for the Zanaga project, signaling a high level of interest from a major entity.

Shareholders Involved: The agreement covers major shareholders including Guava Minerals Limited (9.60%) and the Greymont Bay Consortium (25.26%).

Purpose of the Lock-in: The lock-in provides stability for the potential investor by preventing the sale of a significant block of shares during the negotiation period.

This development strongly suggests that negotiations with a major strategic iron ore interest are at an advanced and sensitive stage, where both the investor and the company require a stable shareholder structure to progress a potential deal.

Q. At a guess how much would a ‘Strategic’ have to pay for a controlling 51% interest in Zanaga?

At a guess, based purely on a proportional share of the project’s reported valuations, a strategic buyer might expect to pay between $2.65 billion and $4.7 billion for a controlling 51% interest.

Estimated Acquisition Cost

Based purely on a proportional share of the project’s reported valuations, the cost for a 51% controlling interest could range significantly:

Current NPV Basis (~$5.2bn): A proportional stake would be approximately $2.65 billion (0.51 × $5.2bn).

Potential NPV Basis (~$9+bn): If the market prices in the potential upside from the current workstreams, the cost could rise to approximately $4.6 billion or more (0.51 × $9bn).

Strategic Premium ConsiderationsIt is highly likely that an actual transaction for a globally significant, strategic asset like Zanaga would command a significant premium above a simple pro-rata NPV calculation.Scarcity Value: The rarity of a massive, high-purity DR-grade deposit adds substantial scarcity value.

Control Premium: Buyers typically pay a premium to secure a controlling interest (often 20-40% above the market share price/proportional value).

Supply Security Value: For a steel mill, guaranteed long-term feedstock supply for billions of dollars of downstream green steel infrastructure might justify paying a higher price than the pure mining economics suggest.

The final price would be subject to intense negotiation, market conditions at the time of sale, and the buyer’s assessment of achieving the higher-end NPV potential.

Q. Could Zanaga be described as a 'prize'?

Yes, controlling an asset with the potential scale and grade of Zanaga represents a very rare and strategic prize for any major mining company or global steel producer.

Here's why it is such a highly coveted asset:

For Iron Ore Majors (e.g., Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale)

Diversification and Premium Products: It offers diversification away from the lower-grade, high-volume Pilbara blends and allows entry into the lucrative, high-margin premium DR-grade market, which is expected to experience intense demand growth.

Decarbonization Leadership: Ownership would position a major miner as a key enabler of the steel industry's transition to green steel, enhancing their environmental credentials and market reputation.

Long-Term Growth: The potential for a multi-decade, multi-billion-tonne reserve provides a stable, long-life asset base for future revenue streams.

For Global Steel Mills (e.g., ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel, Baowu)

Supply Security: The single biggest risk for green steel projects today is the secure, long-term supply of high-purity iron ore. Direct ownership or a major off-take agreement would de-risk billions of dollars in new EAF and H-DRI plant investments.

Competitive Advantage: Guarantees access to the primary ingredient for near-zero CO₂ steel, allowing the mill to secure market share in high-value automotive and construction sectors demanding sustainable materials.

Cost Control: Integrated ownership helps steel mills hedge against the volatile and potentially soaring premium prices expected for scarce DR-grade ore in the coming decade.

In essence, an asset like Zanaga offers a solution to the iron ore industry's "grade problem" and the steel industry's "carbon problem," making it a uniquely valuable and potentially highly contested asset as the global steel transition accelerates.

Q. Only a small portion of Zanaga has been drilled to JORC levels.

That assessment is accurate regarding the potential significance of the Zanaga project's full resource potential.

If the currently defined 6.9 Bt Mineral Resource can eventually be converted into JORC Ore Reserves, the Zanaga project would indeed become the largest and highest-quality single iron ore deposit globally to specifically target the premium DR-grade market.

This would create a "standout asset" in the truest sense:

Largest DR-Grade Reserve: The currently planned production capacity of 30 Mtpa for over 30 years is already substantial. A reserve base of 6+ Bt would guarantee supply security for decades and dwarf the reserves of many competing DR-grade projects.

Highest Quality: The combination of scale and the potential for ultra-high purity (>68% Fe, ultra-low impurities) is a rare combination. Most other massive deposits (like those in Australia's Pilbara region) are lower grade (around 62% Fe) and require blending or extensive processing to meet DR standards.

Strategic Global Asset: In a world rapidly trying to decarbonize steel production, control over such a massive, high-purity, long-life asset would provide immense strategic leverage to steelmakers and investors.

It is important to remember that this huge potential is currently in the "Mineral Resource" category, not the final "Ore Reserve" category. Realizing this potential requires extensive additional drilling, feasibility studies, regulatory approvals, and multi-billion-dollar capital investment decisions.

However, the existing geological data strongly suggests that the potential is there, positioning Zanaga as a truly unique prospect in the global mining landscape.

Q. Where does Zanaga stand in global DR-grade terms?

The Zanaga project is frequently described by its developers as a globally important and strategic asset due to its combination of massive scale and potential for high-purity DR-grade product.

Key characteristics that position Zanaga as a standout asset for the green steel transition include:

Exceptional Product Quality: Recent metallurgical test work has confirmed the ability to produce concentrates with very high iron content and ultra-low impurities:

Hematite (Stage 1): 68.5% Fe.

Magnetite (Stage 2): 69.1% Fe.

These grades are at or above the typical DRI benchmark of 67% Fe and feature very low gangue (impurities like silica and alumina), making the product ideal for the stringent requirements of the H-DRI-EAF steelmaking route.

World-Class Scale: The project boasts a massive 6.9 billion tonne mineral resource and a 2.1 billion tonne ore reserve, positioning it as one of the largest iron ore deposits globally. This scale underpins a planned 30 Mtpa production rate with a mine life of over 30 years, offering long-term supply security that is highly attractive to steelmakers.

Strategic Positioning: The global shift to decarbonize steel production is driving an increasing demand for high-grade, low-impurity iron ore, a market that is currently undersupplied. Zanaga is well-placed to capitalize on this premium market, with all necessary permits and licenses already secured.

While other projects like Fortescue's Iron Bridge are also high-grade, Zanaga's combination of immense resource size, confirmed ultra-high purity, and planned large-scale production makes it a potentially transformative asset in the market for green steel feedstocks.

Rio's Investor Day tomorrow.

I wonder if Simon Trott will address the 'smoking gun'? He did after all load it.

Catbert - very well put. I 100% agree.

Https://www.zanagairon.com

Slick new website

New corporate presentation

https://www.zanagairon.com/documents/corporate-presentation/

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/zanaga-iron-ore-co-ltd-di---zioc/new-website-branding-corporate-presentation/9271988

Rio Tinto, Binding Solutions ltd, and Marty Knauth (and ZIOC and Zanaga) name-checked sequentially.

Oh, and the date....26th August - the date of ZIOC's lock-in and the day after Simon Trott became Rio's new CEO

The article reads like a scripted market briefing.

ASSESSING EFFORTS TO DECARBONISE IRON ORE AND STEEL

August 26, 2025

For iron ore miners, it could be considered an inconvenient truth that the carbon emissions of steel (which account for around 8% of the global total), and iron ore (the key ingredient in steelmaking), are so intrinsically linked.

**RIO TINTO’S** scope 3 emissions – the indirect greenhouse gases (GHG) produced outside of its direct operations but still a consequence of its activities – represent a whopping 95% of its overall emissions footprint. Of these, 69% come from energy-intensive steelmaking. In 2023, processing of the company’s iron ore accounted for an estimated 14% of total global steelmaking emissions.

As such, steelmakers are under huge public, investor and regulatory pressure to reduce the industry’s impact. So far, 20 steel producers, including half of the major companies that account for more than 30% of global production, now have a net-zero by 2050 target. To reach this goal, many are making investments in lower-carbon technologies such as electric arc furnaces (EAF) and direct reduced iron (DRI).

Industry under pressure to decarbonise iron and steel production

On the face of it, this is good news for iron ore miners including Vale, BHP and Fortescue, and their scope 3 emissions – but it does not come for free. Rather, it forces miners to adapt the type of iron ore pellet feed they produce.

The fact is, says **JON STEWART, CEO AT BINDING SOLUTIONS**, a company helping steelmakers reduce emissions, miners are ‘forced’ to get involved in their customers’ decarbonisation efforts “because steelmakers are asking for it”.

Producing steel via DRI and in EAFs requires high-grade iron ore feedstock with an iron content of more than 67% and minimal impurities.

This, says **MARTY KNAUTH, CEO OF ZANAGA IRON ORE COMPANY**, will see additional premiums placed on high-grade iron ore as steelmakers look to reduce their carbon footprints.

“Especially considering government policy is increasingly based around net-zero targets,” he adds. His company is developing the **ZANAGA PROJECT** in the Republic of Congo, which it says is Africa’s largest known iron ore reserve. Recent tests have demonstrated the reserve can produce high-grade pellet feed concentrates suitable for low-emission steelmaking, according to Knauth.

www.mining-technology.com/features/assessing-efforts-to-decarbonise-iron-ore-and-steel/

RBS analysts see an 18month slip in Simandou's ramp up to full production.

RIO TINTO TARGET CLIPPED AS BROKER DOUBTS SIMANDOU PROJECT DELIVERY

Analysts at RBC have taken a dim view of Rio Tinto Ltd's (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) intended timeline for bringing its Simandou project online.

RBC trimmed its targets for Rio, warning that the mining major's planned 30-month ramp-up at Simandou is unlikely to be achieved.

In a note, analysts said phyllite rock conditions, two early wet seasons and limited regional operating experience point to a slower path to nameplate capacity.

As a result, It now expects a 48-month ramp. The analysts noted that this would delay significant production volumes into 2029.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1083513/rio-tinto-target-clipped-as-broker-doubts-simandou-project-delivery-1083513.html

Meanwhile:

CHINA URGES DOMESTIC PRODUCERS TO ACCELERATE IRON ORE PROJECTS

The China Iron and Steel Association urged local ore producers to speed up key projects, as the world’s biggest consumer grapples with its dependence on imported supplies from top miners such as BHP Group.

The association will ramp up efforts to ensure stable operation of domestic iron ore mines and promote supply-side structural reform in the steel industry, Vice President Xia Nong said in a statementlate Monday, following a meeting at the end of last month with Chinese producers and government departments.

China imports more than 1 billion tons a year of iron ore for its massive steel industry, and has set up a state-run trader to try and shift leverage from major miners such as BHP and Rio Tinto Group. The quality of locally produced ore is typically low grade, making overseas shipments crucial for steelmakers.

https://archive.is/20251202033607/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/china-urges-domestic-producers-to-accelerate-iron-ore-projects

Well, what do we have here? ZIOC's very own Mark Cutifani (sometime CEO of Anglo American and recently chairman of VBM) assessing Simon Trott's initial impact as Rio's new CEO. Something of. a mentor, perhaps? (Recall that Cutifani, via his holding in Greymont Bay, agreed to be locked-in to ZIOC for 6 months from 26th August, the day after Trott was elevated from Rio's IO boss to their CEO).

"Former Anglo American chief executive Mark Cutifani says Trott was right to choose a structure built around commodity divisions, rather than the model employed by BHP, where executives are accountable for mines within a specific geographic area regardless of the product they make.

“When Simon Trott announced going by commodities on a global basis, I thought that was a good move for his first steps in restructure,” says Cutifani.

“From a customer perspective it is really important, and really important in terms of getting the right prices for your products. The technical and operating issues are quite common across jurisdictions.”

The changes made by Trott may have been well received, but they can probably be described as hedge-trimming, not major structural change."

And then, this thursday is Rio's Investor Day:

"New Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott has told colleagues he doesn’t want to be the kind of boss who merely trims the proverbial hedges and mows the lawns, and on Thursday the full extent of his landscaping plans will be laid bare."

AFTER 25 YEARS, SIMON TROTT GETS HIS CHANCE TO RESHAPE RIO TINTO

https://archive.is/20251202051219/https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/after-25-years-simon-trott-gets-his-chance-to-reshape-rio-tinto-20251201-p5njsu#selection-1771.0-1803.137

Thursday, 4th December. Rio Tinto's Investor Day (Capital Markets Day)

I wonder if Simon Trott will address the smoking gun?

It's Rio Tinto's Investor Day next week, which I think used to be styled their 'Capital Markets Day'. Simon Trott's first as CEO.

By my reckoning it's the day when they lay out their thinking and strategy for the coming year, and capital requirements.

GROK

Yes, it's fair to characterize Rio Tinto's Capital Markets Day on December 4, 2025 (often referred to interchangeably as an Investor Day in broader contexts) as the primary forum where the company outlines its strategic thinking, long-term plans, and capital requirements for the coming year and beyond. These events are designed for direct engagement with investors, featuring presentations from leadership on key priorities like growth initiatives, cost management, asset portfolio adjustments (e.g., potential sales or swaps), and capital allocation frameworks.

Key Expectations for This Event

Based on analyst previews and Rio Tinto's historical pattern:

Strategy and Thinking:

Expect updates on portfolio diversification, such as expansions in high-demand areas like copper, lithium, and aluminum, alongside responses to market dynamics (e.g., energy transition demands). This aligns with past seminars, where the focus has been on "investing for a stronger, more diversified portfolio."

Capital Requirements:

Discussions will likely cover funding needs for major projects, shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks), and potential M&A or divestitures to optimize capital efficiency. Analysts see this as a "de-risking event" for the stock, with emphasis on value creation through proactive execution in 2025–2026.

Format: Held in London with a live webcast starting at 10:00 GMT, followed by a Q&A conference call. No full agenda has been released yet, but investor focus includes cost controls, lithium strategy, and asset sales.

This timing—post-third-quarter results and pre-year-end—positions it as a pivotal update for 2026 planning. If you're attending or following remotely, the webcast details will be available on Rio Tinto's investor relations site closer to the date.

Q: Were BSL and ZIOC to link to produce true DRI-grade CAPs how attractive or otherwise would Zanaga ore be to IO majors?

AI: Zanaga as a Crown Jewel for IO Majors in a BSL-ZIOC DRI-CAP Partnership

In a hypothetical partnership where Binding Solutions Limited (BSL) and Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) collaborate to produce true Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-grade Cold Agglomerated Pellets (CAPs) from Zanaga's supergene-enriched ores, Zanaga would skyrocket in desirability for iron ore (IO) majors like Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and Anglo American.

Already a standout with its 6.9 Bt resource (2.1 Bt reserve) and low-impurity concentrates (68–69% Fe) Zanaga is primed for green steel supply chains.

Pairing it with BSL's low-energy CAP tech (80% energy savings, 70% CO₂ reduction vs. induration) would create a "plug-and-play" DRI feedstock: ultra-clean pellets optimized for H₂-based reduction, at competitive costs (~$27/t FOB opex)

This combo addresses the majors' pain points—scarce DR-grade supply (only ~7% of seaborne ore today) amid a projected 133 Mt/year shortfall by 2040—while aligning with their net-zero strategies.

Desirability? Off the charts: a strategic acquisition or off-take target with 37% NPV uplift to $5.21B and 26.7% IRR, potentially commanding premiums of $20–30/t for DRI pellets.

Zanaga as a Prime Target for BSL's DRI Expansion

Yes, absolutely—Zanaga Iron Ore's (ZIOC) low-gangue, high-Fe concentrates (68–69% Fe) make it an ideal candidate for Binding Solutions Limited (BSL) to accelerate their Cold Agglomerated Pellet (CAP) technology into direct reduced iron (DRI) applications. While BSL's current focus (e.g., November 2025 Pilbara trials) has been on unlocking impure goethite ores for blast furnaces (BFs), their explicit roadmap for DRI/HDR (hydrogen direct reduction) partnerships emphasizes testing "various ore types" to meet ISO standards for DR-grade pellets. Zanaga's "naturally clean" mineralogy aligns perfectly: it requires minimal (if any) beneficiation for DRI, allowing BSL's low-energy CAP process to shine on premium feedstocks where traditional induration is already viable but energy-intensive.

No direct BSL-Zanaga link exists yet, but strategically, it's a no-brainer for collaboration—potentially unlocking Zanaga's 2.1 Bt reserves for green steel supply chains.

Why Zanaga Fits BSL's DRI Strategy Like a GloveBSL's CAP excels at agglomeration without high heat (saving 80% energy, 70% CO₂ vs. induration), but for DRI, the ore's inherent purity is key to avoiding slag issues in shaft furnaces and EAFs. Zanaga delivers:DRI-Ready Specs Out of the Box: Hematite/magnetite concentrates exceed 67% Fe thresholds with ultra-low impurities (Al₂O₃ 90% reducibility and low degradation—essentials for H₂-DRI efficiency.

Synergy with CAP: BSL's binders can fine-tune these fines into robust pellets for gas diffusion, without the gangue challenges of Pilbara. Their Teesside pilot could process Zanaga samples to validate ISO 7215/13930 compliance, fast-tracking commercialization.

Green Steel Alignment: Zanaga's DRI focus (e.g., for EAFs) matches BSL's KTP with Teesside University (August 2024), which targets HDR formulations. Pairing could cut full-cycle emissions further, appealing to EU net-zero mandates.

Zanaga as a Prime Target for BSL's DRI Expansion

Yes, absolutely—Zanaga Iron Ore's (ZIOC) low-gangue, high-Fe concentrates (68–69% Fe,

Running this through AI for validation:

Q. Would 'Zanaga' would be a good test for BSL looking for DRI applications?

GROK:

Zanaga as a Prime Target for BSL's DRI Expansion

Yes, absolutely—Zanaga Iron Ore's (ZIOC) low-gangue, high-Fe concentrates (68–69% Fe,

Let's stick with these 'cold pellets' (CAPs) a'while.

I was told some months ago by an impeccable source that the company were looking at both hot and **cold** pellet production at Pointe Noire (and elsewhere). As a result I have kept an almost daily eye on the news reports from Binding Solutions ltd (BSL) - the foremost provider of cold agglomeration tech.. LTHs here will recall that Tony Trahar was a director of BSL for a short time in 2019 (?). He's now invested in ZIOC via Greymont Bay, while his son, Andrew, does ZIOC's PR/IR (no scoffing at the back).

BSL's reveal just this Monday that, 'BSL will continue to work with our leading industry partners to further develop this product and identify opportunities where it can be applied for direct reduction iron making' (1) immediately dovetails with what I heard some months back about ZIOC looking at cold pellets at PN etc..

Meanwhile, I wonder whether the samples tested for DR beneficiation in China and then confirmed in the UK actually ended up at BSL on Teeside?

Anyway, we are due the results of ZIOC's pellet plant deliberations this quarter and, I understand, that we are on schedule. However......I also think that we are now subject to some measure of coordination (control?!) from our incoming Strategic Investor (the one who asked for and received a lock-in from our heavyweight investors, incl. Tony Trahar via his holding in Greymont Bay). The thing is that a cold pellet plant at Pointe Noire would not be ZIOC alone's to announce. BSL would be involved (again as per 1), as would our Strategic Investor. Ultimately it would be their product (CAPs) produced by a novel method for their off-takers at a price they set - not ZIOC's.

Straws in the wind? No smoke without fire?

I think we are now very close to some kind of Big Reveal.

The excitement is over the super-premium that CAPs could/would command. Firstly they use cold tech (binders) in production, not CO2-intensive and expensive gas induration and, secondly, CAPs avoid incoming carbon taxes such as the EU CBAM. For this they could command an all-in premium in excess of $50/t over our reference 65% benchmark. (This super-premium market is opaque with no price sequence being published, however numbers for DR pellets of $180/t are reported with CAPs likely at $200-220/t. Such a premium would explode our NPVs northwards).

ZIOC projected such a super-premium in the corporate presentation of March 2025 (2). Slide 23 has an NPV of $9,943bn from a $180/t product - which can only be DR-grade pellets (and hot not cold) - and an implied SP of £10.38p.

This type of product trading at these premiums would allow our incoming Strategic to dominate the green steel feedstock market for many decades.

1. https://www.bindingsolutions.uk/2025/11/bsl-produced-the-worlds-first-cold-agglomerated-pellets-from-pilbara-ore/

2. https://wp-zanagairon-2025.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/03/Zanaga-Investor-Day-Presentation-March-2025.