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Since the RNS has anyone had any contact with AT, or even tried to make contact and been blanked?
A treasure trove of likes going back some weeks now.
A checklist of companies and services needed to develop a mine.
Seek and Ye shall find.
Thursday's RNS had much more to it than the market appreciates so far. Not least is that Shard switched 180° from the Sell side to the Buy side. Which means that, and after many months of supply, we no longer have their subscription shares weighing on the market.
ZIOC declined to take T3 of the 3x 12m share facility previously disclosed, and so, with the announced completion of T2, Shard now have no subscription shares to feed into the market. Yet Shard now say, "The Zanaga story is one we are committed to and have been following closely for some time. It is without doubt a world class iron ore project, with a fantastic team and we look forward to working with them to unlock what we see as major potential value for shareholders."
The outstanding balance of the ZIOC-Glencore loan is now uncovered by declared subscription sales - an extraordinary position. Given the above it appears that ZIOC, Shard and, by extension, both the NomAd and Glencore all see a sharply higher SP and/or some alternative funding come the 31st July maturity date.
Shard's '..major potential value for shareholders' looks like it's on the cards.
Thanks Marcus. I think it's important to have a theory that fits the facts on the ground - helps makes sense of your investment, particularly if there are some blanks that need filling in - and we have a few.
The theory is supported by another tweet from the Chinese Ambassador, from yesterday. Big D swears allegiance to President Xi:
"A great leader with far-sightedness and profound admiration"! President Sassou said this about President Xi Jinping.
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1774463837938319548
My view is that the Chinese will be our primary Strategic Investor, in the form of Baosteel. I also see the chance that the Chinese would assume the 10% free carry Zanaga of the Congo Gov., this in exchange for some form of debt forgiveness by the Chinese on their estimated $7bn of sovereign debt with the country. Wheels within wheels, but you've got to have a theory - otherwise to you are running in the dark.
That phrase from the RNS: '...a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner...'
Why 'near final' not 'final'? The answer must be something outside of the EPC's hands. Given that securing African iron ore is a Chinese State-directed imperative (and the amounts involved so big (think 'Simandou')) then the Chinese EPC 'final report' is very likely waiting on official sanction. That official sanction is going to be the official thumbs up from CPP representative(s) for the country andits investment conditions.
So what did the Chinese Ambassador and 5 of her colleagues do last week? She toured the country, travelled the length of the RN1 (Chinese built), and visited 4 Chinese-Congo projects which significantly included a copper and a zinc mine.
At the end of it Mde l'Ambassadrice pronounced that, 'La coopération sino-congolaise aura un #avenir encore plus radieux ' 'The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
> Sounds like the country got her thumbs up and, I reckon, that near-final report can now be signed off.
LI Yan @LIYanChine Ambassadeur extraordinaire et plénipotentiaire de la République populaire de Chine en République du Congo
5:40 PM · Mar 27, 2024
The first copper plate and the first zinc ingot in the history of Congo (Brazzaville)! Today I visited the Soremi Mine invested and operated by a Chinese company. This is not only a modern highland for Congo’s mining industry, but also the cradle of local professional and technical talents.
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773042314380018067
7:29 PM · Mar 28, 2024
It lasted 4 days and visited 4 China-Congo cooperation projects in three provinces of Congo! From Mengo to Lifoula, I drove more than 500 kilometers through the Mayombe forest, and I completed the entire National Highway 1. ( )
I would like to pay tribute to the friends who participated in the construction of Road No. 1 and the cooperation between China and Congo in various fields! The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773432229911498891
Beautiful!
There's a phrase in the RNS which merits much closer attention, and some related activity in the Congo that could well be key to our future - and imminently so.
As I wrote into here on Thursday:
'We haven't been shown any numbers, which likely rewrite the BFS and all-important metrics such as IRR and the NPV. These will certainly directly impact the buy in price for our Strategic Partner/s. Given that we haven't been shown the results then it appears logical that Strategic Partner/s' dependencies are keeping them under wraps - for now.'
Was very much what the company delivered in the RNS later, '...FS...key to further engagement of strategic partners...:
'Clifford Elphick, Chairman of ZIOC commented:
"ZIOC is pleased with the progress of the FS update which is nearing completion. This is regarded as being key to further engagement of strategic partners.
1) FS update process
a) The review and re-costing phase of the 2014 FS has been completed and a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner, and this has progressed to peer and ZIOC board review.
b) The final results of the 2014 FS update are expected to be announced during April 2024.'
> So every day through April is a potential RNS day, and I fully expect the SP to firm markedly in anticipation of the above as well as numerous other reasons.
This from 28th December 2023:
o The initial review and re-costing phase of the 2014 Feasibility Study ("2014 FS") has been completed, indicating potential cost reductions versus the 2014 FS.
o The market enquiry and financial modelling phase 2 is underway and will now be extended into Q1 2024 given the comprehensive nature of the update.
> This news flow is in the company's hands, as will be the timing of any news release.
We haven't been shown any numbers, which likely rewrite the BFS and all-important metrics such as IRR and the NPV. These will certainly directly impact the buy in price for our Strategic Partner/s. Given that we haven't been shown the results then it appears logical that Strategic Partner/s' dependencies are keeping them under wraps - for now.
A positive for me.
...or not
Shaun - on news that would seem to be the case for me too. 40 minutes until we find out for real.
I'm hoping for:
The immediate start of the EPP for 1mtpa of DSO, netting $75m+ per annum from 2025 onwards.
The identity of our Chinese pipeline specialists, where PSEI is front runner.
Something on the grades delivered by the proprietary FDMS beneficiation process.
Our selected Strategic Partner to be revealed, where my money is on Baosteel, with any ME interest being small (30% tops).
Our Strategic Partner (Baosteel and/or ME) earning in to Zanaga by funding a Reserve extension drill program. This could/should extend the Reserve, and hence our NPV, by as much as 6-fold.
Agreement and formula (based on the EPP and new Reserve size) for a Buy Out in 2026....
Worth continuing with the port developments at Pointe Noire, and while we wait.
The EPP staged a come back in ZIOC's latest presentation in November.
An EPP of 1mtpa of at surface DSO could net $100m from a low CapEx, 3rd party contractor operation.
This from p.5:
PORT PARTNERSHIPS UNDER EVALUATION
Process underway to evaluate potential opportunities for collaboration across all stages of development of the Zanaga Project’s port logistics requirements
https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Zanaga-Investor-Presentation-1-Nov-2023-1.pdf
ZIOC in September 2022: The new quays at PAPN would certainly fit the descriptions below:
· Early Production Project ("EPP Project" or "EPP")
o Numerous production scenarios remain under investigation on processing facilities and suitable logistics solutions, with a particular focus on an export solutions through the Republic of Congo ("RoC")
o Multiple contract operators have been engaged across mining, logistics, and processing disciplines with the objective of providing updated cost estimates in-country
o Significant engagement underway with other mining project developers in RoC to explore potential collaboration opportunities, especially in relation to logistics solutions and alternatives for upgrades to existing infrastructure
With thanks to V1 for this link. Could the new quays at PAPN facilitate Zanaga's EPP? A quay to accommodate bulk carries and mineral ships, and with work to be completed by 2024. Would certainly fit.
Begun in July 2021, the construction of these two infrastructures responds to the desire of the port authority to ensure that the PAPN meets the new requirements of maritime transport. Indeed, the aim of the port is to have, at the end of the work, a 250m long multi-bulk quay with a depth of 12.5m and a part deepened to -16m. This quay is intended to accommodate cereal ships and other bulk carriers, as well as mineral ships in anticipation of the resumption of activities in this economic sector.
https://maritimafrica.com/en/papn-construction-of-two-maritime-quays-progressing-perfectly-and-could-be-completed-by-september-2024/
...and a mineral port!
From a few minutes back:
THIS EXTENSION IS PLANNED TO ACCOMMODATE VARIOUS PROJECTS, INCLUDING MINING, STEEL...
Ministère des Zones Economiques Spéciales
16m ·
During a video conference held on Tuesday, March 26, 2024, the Minister of Special Economic Zones, Jean Marc-THYSTERE TCHICAYA, met with Madame Adama Dian, the resident representative of the UNDP, accompanied by several experts. The meeting sought to discuss the CAPITAL concept project for Congo, an effort to support the ZES, introduced by Ms Sandrine LETENO of the UNDP. The discussions covered four main topics: the effective implementation of the Pointe-Noire ZES, the development of a strategic plan and roadmap for the operations of the ZES, the initiation of learning missions within the ZES, and the development of a strategy for solar energy.
During these dialogues, the Minister of ZES showed great receptivity and stressed the size of the area, which covers an area of 2940 hectares. This extension is planned to accommodate various projects, including a mining, steel, and petrochemical complex, tourist activities, and a mineral port, thereby reflecting the diversity and ambition of the project.
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=742287498083083&id=100069055185359&mibextid=WC7FNe&checkpoint_src=any
2 articles in just the last couple of hours. China and the USA both driving for green steel.
Zanaga development just has to be a dead cert - it's just when and for how much.
1. CHINA’S NEW 2027 “GREEN CONSTRUCTION” TARGET TO BOOST DOMESTIC STEEL DECARBONIZATION
March 25, 2024
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/chinas-new-2027-green-construction-target-to-boost-domestic-steel-decarbonization/
2. $1 BILLION IN FEDERAL INVESTMENTS FOR CLEANER STEEL
Published 25th March, 2024
https://www.steeltimesint.com/news/1-billion-in-federal-investments-for-cleaner-steel
Those last 2 updates came on the last full trading days of each quarter; 3Q23 on 29th Sept and 4Q23 on 28th Dec..
If the company are consistent, as they usually are, then we can expect our update this Thursday, 28th March.
And, as per 28th Dec, any update could and should cover everything, '... the comprehensive nature of the update.'
29th September 2023:
· Key milestone objectives through to the end of Q1 2024 include:
o Feasibility Study update - End 2023
o Hydro power partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
o Port partnership - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
o Strategic partner initiative - Q1 2024 (Memorandum of Understanding)
Clifford Elphick, Non-Executive Chairman of ZIOC, commented:
"During the first half of 2023, ZIOC launched a process with its Chinese EPC Partner to secure Chinese contractor pricing and to update the cost estimates of the 30Mtpa Feasibility Study, while also considering the application of new iron ore processing technology to reduce estimated costs further. This is a completely different exercise to the study work conducted by consulting firms in the past, as the Chinese EPC Partner is a constructor and developer of iron ore mining projects, with specific expertise in slurry pipelines and pellet feed concentrate processing. We look forward to concluding the process by year end.
Furthermore, port infrastructure discussions are underway with a large port infrastructure development firm seeking to expand the existing port of Pointe-Noire. Consideration is also being given to potential development solutions for a large bulk mineral port capable of supporting the 30Mtpa staged development project.
Following the acquisition of full ownership and control of the Zanaga Project we are now engaging with strategic entities interested in participating in the Zanaga Project, and intend on securing a selected partner by the end of Q1 2024".
This was mildly amended on 28th December 2023:
· Chinese EPC Partner FS update progress
o The initial review and re-costing phase of the 2014 Feasibility Study ("2014 FS") has been completed, indicating potential cost reductions versus the 2014 FS.
o The market enquiry and financial modelling phase 2 is underway and will now be extended into Q1 2024 given the comprehensive nature of the update.
BHP's Mike Henry tries to make excuses and buy time for Chinese steel mills to convert to green steel.
This, by the most extraordinary coincidence, would also suit BHP's multi-billion dollar mountain of dirty low grade Pilbara junk which otherwise would become stranded.
Nice try, Mike.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-s-mike-henry-argues-chinese-steelmakers-deserve-a-break-20240324-p5fetw