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Hi nibj - on Glencore this is unlikely IMO. The marketing agreement can be over-written and, in many ways, having Glencore on board provides a degree of comfort even to the likes of Baosteel and PIF, both of who I expect to be central players in Zanaga's development.
Add another 500k from Thursday:
04-Jan-24 09:53:55 8.8616 500,000 Unknown* 8.00 10.00 44.31k O
By the back of my envelope we have had well over 25m of larger nuggets and/or late reported trades just this week.
I'm sure that such outsized volume implies a deal, but I have yet to read any plausible rationale of the who and why of the participants.
Forget the retail market, it's all happening in larger nuggets. 3 more from yesterday:
04-Jan-24 12:19:49 7.75 900,000 Unknown* 9.00 9.50 69.75k O
04-Jan-24 09:54:55 8.60 300,000 Unknown* 9.00 9.50 25.80k O
04-Jan-24 09:52:34 8.9665 500,000 Unknown* 9.00 9.50 44.83k O
There's also a third 335,000 buy of today reported after the bell.
The question remains as to where the supply is coming from (given that Shard have not RNS'ed), and who is buying....
No Shard RNS as yet - which begs all manner of questions about recent volume, not least yesterday's blockbuster and volume.
Volume, ahead of any larger late trades, is already the best back to Nov 2017 - whatever that might signify.
Hmmmm. No Shard RNS, which would be obligatory if today's trades triggered T3.
There are two alternatives:
That they were in their entirety T2, however that would mean that all of the recent large lates (c.8m+) haven't been Shard. If so, then who or what has been supplying the volume that has been suppressing the SP on our good news? .....and why?
I am struggling to put a label on these trades.
Perhaps 'at market' transfers between connected accounts?
Key questions are now:
Has the overhang been cleared?
Are we now free to move higher? and
Are we clear for news?
HAHAHAHAHA - Please stop!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAH
So on those larger trades you had to come here and see what I had written. Oh my...that's so funny it hurts.
What a loser!!!
Laters.
T2 *and* T3 ?
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
04-Jan-24 12:19:49 7.75 9,243,962 Unknown* 8.24 9.00 716.41k O
04-Jan-24 12:19:46 7.75 993,548 Unknown* 8.24 9.00 77.00k O
04-Jan-24 12:18:49 8.30 50,000 Sell* 8.24 9.00 4,150 A
04-Jan-24 12:18:49 8.32 11,995 Sell* 8.32 9.00 997.98 A
04-Jan-24 12:18:32 7.75 180,645 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 14.00k O
04-Jan-24 12:18:29 7.75 350,438 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 27.16k O
04-Jan-24 12:18:26 7.75 584,064 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 45.26k O
04-Jan-24 12:18:25 8.762 88,409 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 7,746 O
04-Jan-24 12:18:20 7.75 207,343 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 16.07k O
04-Jan-24 11:51:57 8.36 -66,813 Unknown* 8.40 9.00 -5,586 O
04-Jan-24 11:51:57 8.36 -66,813 Unknown* 8.40 9.00 -5,586 O
04-Jan-24 12:13:51 8.36 40,000 Sell* 8.40 9.00 3,344 O
04-Jan-24 10:12:05 8.405 250,000 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 21.01k O
04-Jan-24 12:07:23 8.46 3,000 Sell* 8.46 9.00 253.80 A
04-Jan-24 12:07:12 8.52 3,000 Sell* 8.32 9.00 255.60 A
04-Jan-24 09:54:31 8.61 250,000 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 21.53k O
04-Jan-24 11:51:57 8.36 66,813 Sell* 8.32 9.00 5,586 O
04-Jan-24 09:35:18 8.20 250,000 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 20.50k O
04-Jan-24 11:00:55 8.762 33,000 Buy* 8.32 9.00 2,891 O
04-Jan-24 10:21:03 8.6256 2,208 Sell* 8.32 9.00 190.45 O
04-Jan-24 09:16:25 8.8884 100,000 Unknown* 8.32 9.00 8,888 O
The giant Chinese steel conglomerate has to be in the frame as one of the strategics for Zanaga development.
Back in May they teamed up with Aramco and the PIF for a huge new mill at Ras Al-Khair, in Saudi. Of note is that Bandar al-Khorayef was instrumental in settling up RaK, whilst he also met with Gary Nagel of Glencore in Geneva in May.
Further underlining the pas-de-deux, Bandar al Khorayef met with Baosteel in Shanghai on September 25th just gone. Wang Ming being the president of Baowu, the whole corporation:
SAUDI INDUSTRY MINISTER CONDUCTS MEETINGS WITH CHINESE MINING COMPANIES
During his meeting, Bandar Alkhorayef consulted with the chairman of CMOC Group, Yuan Honglin, to explore potential opportunities within the natural resources sector. The assembly touched on the utilization of accumulated experience in mining and processing, including smelting and refining of both essential and rare metals, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Alkhorayef also spoke on different topics related to the iron and steel industry with Wang Ming, a senior figure from Baosteel.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2380086/business-economy
As yet, the Saudis have not secured a single shovel full of iron ore to feed their green steel endeavours. Next week's FMF in Riyadh marks 1 whole year since the PIF-Ma'aden JV was formed specifically to secure global supplies of the necessary high grade iron ore. I think it hugely unlikely that they would be prepared to let the anniversary come and go with no visible progress.
I wonder what 'significant announcement' Bandar al-Khorayef was hinting at when in Japan?
Meanwhile....
Shard continue to sell down tranche 2. Yesterday we saw a further 1.6m of larger delayed trades through the day. This, IMO, is an orchestrated placing of the shares in 'informed' hands. The trades (demand/supply) are broadly matched in size and time strongly suggesting that Shard are maintaining an orderly market for others to buy in.
One trade was particularly telling, the purchase of 250,000 at 9.89p at 16:23. Given that the market was 9.00-9.25p at the time then someone, somewhere didn't really care what the offer was - they just wanted in.
Their is clear and obvious conflation between what Bandar al-Khorayef actually hinted at (his words were never reported) and what the journalist assumed he was hinting at.
Given that the Saudis have openly flagged the restatement of their minerals reserves at the upcoming FMF it is ****EXCEEDINGLY UNLIKELY**** that they would be the subject of hints - THEY ARE ALREADY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN.
Now, Jiving, as stated several times before, your natural habitat is the other board.
Oh dear, at least 3 other muppets cannot read.
Oh my - you really can't read, and are a disruptive, little ****
How triply unfortunate that Jiving, extrader's personal serf, has seen fit to repeat his master's stupidity on this board. As can be read, by anyone with a functional intellect, the restatement of Saudi's mineral reserves has been heavily trailed for the upcoming FMF. That being so their revelation can hardly be '...the hinted at a significant announcement'.
But you do you, Jiving - or is it wormtongue?
Saudi Arabia recalculates mineral wealth, new value to be unveiled in January: Alkhorayef
19/12/2023
'...Saudi Arabia is recalculating its mineral resources to create a new value, different from the previous value of $1.3 trillion, Bandar Alkhorayef, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources, told the state-run Saudi press Agency (SPA).
"We will announce our new estimate of the mineral resources in Saudi Arabia during the International Mining Conference, which will be held next January," Al-Khorayef said
https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1692633
> Which leaves the 'hinted at a significant announcement at the FMF' up in the air.....
.....fortunately.
What could Saudi Minister for Mines and Industry, Bandar al-Khorayef, possibly have in mind?
'RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s minister of industry and mineral resources has concluded his three-day official visit to Tokyo, highlighting the Kingdom’s commitment to fostering economic ties with Japan.
During the visit, Bandar Alkhorayef emphasized attracting investments to contribute to the Saudi industrial and mineral sectors.
As the Japanese investors’ roundtable discussions commenced, the minister expressed optimism about the Kingdom’s potential as a hub for green metal investments...
He (Al Khorayef) HINTED AT A SIGNIFICANT ANNOUNCEMENT AT THE FUTURE MINERALS FORUM NEXT MONTH...'
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2429566/business-economy
Great backdrop for a deal:
Iron ore prices climbed to multi-month highs on Tuesday, with sentiment boosted by upbeat economic data in China and mounting expectations of a flurry of pre-holiday replenishment from steelmakers in the coming weeks.
The most-traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 2.93% higher at 1,002 yuan ($140.58) a metric ton, the highest since August 2021.
Sign Up for the Iron Ore Digest
The benchmark February iron ore on the Singapore Exchange climbed 2.35% to $142 a ton, as of 0700 GMT, the highest since June 2022.
https://www.mining.com/web/iron-ore-price-climbs-to-multi-month-high-on-upbeat-chinese-data-expectations-of-restocking/