Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
There's been quite some interest in ZIOC's latest tweet, so here's a reprint of my pre-Christmas post. Fair to say that I am wishing the New Year away and the arrival of the FMF this January 9th...
Quite some development a few hours back as ZIOC tweeted. Not so much as their rarity (5 months since the last) but the connotations and implications:
Zanaga Iron Ore @Zanaga_Iron_Ore
Pleased to confirm that #ZIOC’s CEO, Mr Marty Knauth, and other members of the ZIOC team will be at the #FutureMineralsForum in Riyadh from 9-11 Jan 2024 to progress engagement with strategic partners
#steel #ironore #China #SaudiArabia #FMF #Zanaga #RepublicofCongo
2:04 PM · Dec 20, 2023 from Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 355 Views
https://twitter.com/Zanaga_Iron_Ore/status/1737474083812528160
1. 'progress engagement'
> that speaks for itself. Standby for news between now and then, and during the event. January 9th-11th upcoming.
2. 'strategic partners'
> partners plural - and they'll be at the FMF
3. from Riyadh
> ZIOC's twitter account manager, which used to be AT himself, is currently in Riyadh, the week before Christmas.
4. In order to 'progress engagement' the EPC re-costings must be in and make a tangible difference.
5. FMF24 will be one year after FMF23 last January at which Manara Minerals was formed - the PIF-Ma'aden JV specifically tasked with securing high grade iron ore for the Saudi green steel industry. To date not 1 tonne has been secured. I speculate that ZIOC will be honoured guests at the event.
6. Diplomatically it would be impossible for ZIOC (48% Glencore) to be at FMF24 in Riyadh and then announce a deal that did not at the very least include the Saudis themselves. Most likely, IMO, a Saudi-lead consortium of Gulf States plus Chinese interests.
We shall see, of course, however today's tweet is mighty significant.
Tut tut. A few minutes after today's early close 2 late trades from yesterday: 2x 300,000 at 8.00p.
By my reckoning Shard sold almost 3m from T2 this week.
$6-$8bn, possibly x3 for a fully proven Reserve
Simandou’s infrastructure bill alone is put at $14-16bn, which is sure to overrun in both time and money.
FWIW I read a few months back that WCS refused to divulge how much they had paid to secure their 2 blocks of Simandou.
I do agree, alwayshopingfortheverybestforallofusverysoon! Consortium is surely known and in place.
This was something of a tell for me. Back in September MBS talked of needing to close a few things on Vision2030 in order to roll out Vision2040. Saudi green steel is integral and essential to Vision2030 and then Vision2040 after that...which means securing high grade iron ore is equally important.This is what MBS said:
"Saudi Arabia is to begin working on the next phase of its economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030 and hopes to unveil its Vision 2040 as early as 2027, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview this week.
“Today we’re trying to close a few things, we’re aiming to close in the first half of 2024 and then we’re going to shift to implementation and starting preparation for Vision 2040 and announcing Vision 2040 in 2027-2028. So that’s the main thing we are focusing on,” he told Fox News when asked about the government’s current priorities. "
https://www.agbi.com/articles/saudi-arabia-to-begin-preparing-vision-2040/
As per MBS, and also ZIOC's tweet yesterday, FMF24 in Riyadh this January is '....in the first half of 2024....'
A couple more points of note:
Whoever has the ZIOC twitter account (AT) must have hot footed from the AGM to then be in Riyadh yesterday, suggesting some urgency, and
ZIOC talk of ‘progressing engagement with strategic partners (plural)’ which implies said partners are both already known/selected and themselves already working towards Zanaga development.
The tweet really was something to behold.
Quite some development a few hours back as ZIOC tweeted. Not so much as their rarity (5 months since the last) but the connotations and implications:
Zanaga Iron Ore @Zanaga_Iron_Ore
Pleased to confirm that #ZIOC’s CEO, Mr Marty Knauth, and other members of the ZIOC team will be at the #FutureMineralsForum in Riyadh from 9-11 Jan 2024 to progress engagement with strategic partners
#steel #ironore #China #SaudiArabia #FMF #Zanaga #RepublicofCongo
2:04 PM · Dec 20, 2023 from Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 355 Views
https://twitter.com/Zanaga_Iron_Ore/status/1737474083812528160
1. 'progress engagement'
> that speaks for itself. Standby for news between now and then, and during the event. January 9th-11th upcoming.
2. 'strategic partners'
> partners plural - and they'll be at the FMF
3. from Riyadh
> ZIOC's twitter account manager, which used to be AT himself, is currently in Riyadh, the week before Christmas.
4. In order to 'progress engagement' the EPC re-costings must be in and make a tangible difference.
5. FMF24 will be one year after FMF23 last January at which Manara Minerals was formed - the PIF-Ma'aden JV specifically tasked with securing high grade iron ore for the Saudi green steel industry. To date not 1 tonne has been secured. I speculate that ZIOC will be honoured guests at the event.
6. Diplomatically it would be impossible for ZIOC (48% Glencore) to be at FMF24 in Riyadh and then announce a deal that did not at the very least include the Saudis themselves. Most likely, IMO, a Saudi-lead consortium of Gulf States plus Chinese interests.
We shall see, of course, however today's tweet is mighty significant.
'Congo'
I think you are spot on there, 99icecream!
For 'beyond 30mtpa' I think any agreement/JV will necessarily involve a fresh drilling campaign (paid for by the strategic/s!) that extends the resource into the c.12x overall resource. That could and should produce a massive upside to the Reserve - and the derived NPV.
'Pellet production' is an interesting one and potential a very lucrative kicker to the project. Cold bonded pellets from DRI-grade fines will be an essential component of green steel. ZIOC detailed how their fines 'worked' back in 2018 and PSEI say how they built a cold bonded plant by September 2020. Intriguing stuff. Cold pellets command a c.$40/t premium and cost c.$10/t - (as per AT when still chatty in 2019).
There's a final kicker and that's the possibility of DSO. 1mtpa of free dig, screen and truck (via Gabon) could net us $75m pa - and that would underpin our share of development costs.
All to play for, hugely exciting, and 8p is absurd!!!!
PSEI
Even as I type I read a WhatsApp with the company from this July when the 'Chinese EPC', shortly after the engagement was revealed by ZIOC.
Apparently ZIOC and the EPC were talking broadly about development solutions prior to COVID, only to have them put on hold by pandemic travel restrictions.
> This suggests that planning and thinking is *MUCH* more advanced, and has been for many years.
>> There's also one more kicker of great interest - ZIOC and PSEI timelines on 'cold bonded pellets'. More to follow.
>>> All of this tallies with and reinforces my view that development has always been the preferred option.
There's much more evidence that the relationship with PSEI goes way back and is much deeper than ZIOC have revealed:
ZIOC RNS, July 2019:
2) Pellet Feed Concentrate Plant
An Engineering Procurement and Construction company ("EPC") has been selected as the preferred provider of the process plant facilities. In order to refine and confirm the costs associated with the EPC's initial proposal, three tons of Zanaga's iron ore, representative of the orebody's upper layers, were sent for testing with the equipment providers selected by the EPC.
As a primary step, it was deemed important to evaluate the capabilities of the EPC's proposed milling solution which was expected to provide significant benefits, specifically through lower capital costs, operating costs, and power consumption rates in comparison to the ball milling solution previously selected as part of the milling solution in the 2014 FS.
> This matches up with the current EPC work on milling solutions. Of note in the PSEI video is that they highlight the problems with 'ball mills' (cost, power, inefficiency, and need for wet tailings dams (see Brazil collapses)) and detail their own solution of HPGRs (High Pressure Grinding Rolls). These HPGRs are what potentially makes the huge 40-50% CapEx/OpEx savings on these aspects of the project.
ZIOC have projected possible 20%+ savings on CapEx and OpEx using the Chinese EPC partner.
Well, @1:38 in the YouTube video, PSEI claim the following savings from Iron Ore Dry Processing:
50% CapEx saving on grinding
40% OpEx reduction on grinding and separation
> Bring on those costings now that the AGM is done and dusted.
(BTW the video had just 39 views in 8 months this morning. Now at 83....)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=NulWSEReWeY
Hugely instructive detail on PSEI's projects and tech;, including slurry pipes and dry magnetic separation tech and associated IP:
36 views 30 Mar 2023
PSEI Group has been established for more than 20 years, the company's main technical experts are from large engineering companies in China and abroad, the company is committed to provide services to clients with latest technology in mining development.
PSEI Group's major expertise includes geology and mineral resources, mining, beneficiation, long-distance pipeline transportation, dry tailings piling, environmental engineering and solid waste treatment, and overall project development management and consulting. The company's technical experts are registered professional engineers in China, Australia, the United States, and Canada.
There are 45 senior registered engineers, 80 engineers and 160 employees working for PSEI Group .
PSEI Group Holding Kunming PSEI Mining Engineering Design Co., Ltd. (Kunming, Grade B), Chengde Longxing Mining Engineering Design Co., Ltd. (Hebei Chengde, Grade A), South America Chile PSE-CHIMM JV Santiago, Chile, PSE (Pipeline Systems International Engineering). San Francisco, USA.
At present, PSEI Group is in the world's leading position in many technical fields dry-mill dry-separation, long-distance pipeline transportation and tailings dry piling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=NulWSEReWeY
Superb find by 99icecream this morning. Short but highly instructive YouTube video by PSEI.
PSEI must be 100% nailed on as ZIOC's Chinese EPC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=NulWSEReWeY
Check the images @1:48 and @1:54.
They exactly match the images supplied by ZIOC on p.7 on the November Investor Presentation:
https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Zanaga-Investor-Presentation-1-Nov-2023-1.pdf
I think that Shard had to work hard yesterday to keep a lid on the market. By my reckoning and untangling the 'auction' and 'late' trades, they could have sold 750,000 shares.
> In effect T2 would be being disbursed into deeper pockets while preventing the SP reaching ahead of itself ahead of *ACTUAL* news.
Saudi Arabia's hard working minister for mines and metals, Bandar Al Khorayef, has been in Japan:
HE Minister of #Industry_and_Mineral_Resources Bandar AlKhorayef met with representatives from Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security in Tokyo, Japan.
https://twitter.com/mimgov/status/1736787415384183188
This comes on the day that the Australians detailed a huge Japanese swerve for green steel:
INCENTIVES BOOST GREEN STEEL IN JAPAN
18TH DECEMBER 2023
The Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR) is commenting on the Japanese government’s announcement last week that it is introducing generous tax breaks for companies producing green steel.
The new preferential tax system will particularly benefit steel makers converting from blast furnaces, which use metallurgical coal, to electric arc furnaces. The details include:
(huge financial incentives etc)
Commenting on the news, Executive Director of the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility, Brynn O’Brien, said:
“This is a clear signal from the Japanese government that it sees enormous economic opportunity in being a frontrunner in the energy transition.
“These policy levers put Japanese steel makers in a strong position to accelerate their decarbonisation and meet the escalating global demand for green steel.
“This is an immense opportunity for the Japanese steel sector, and by extension, its investors. There is no doubt, investors will be looking to ensure these opportunities are maximised.
https://www.accr.org.au/news/incentives-boost-green-steel-in-japan/
> Like the Saudis (and other Gulf States), Japan is now confronted by how to secure the high grade iron ore to charge the DRI-EAF green steel making route.
Vale do indeed, 99icecream - except by their own numbers they project a global shortage of the high grade necessary to meet the demand for green steel inputs.
By any reading of the demand side Zanaga is essential. Even at a huge 60mtpa there would still be a shortfall.
Ditto Saudi Arabia. $12bn investment in steel, a substantial chunk of which will be 'green steel. So, and almost 1 year after the PIF-Ma'aden JV was tasked with securing high grade with not a single tonne to show for it, where's the high grade iron ore coming from?
Saudi Arabia to invest $12bln in steel projects
in Commodity News 16/12/2023
Saudi Arabia is investing nearly $12 billion in steel projects to boost its production of the metal to face a large increase in domestic demand, a senior official has said.
Demand for steel, a pillar of construction activity, is already strong due to massive projects under way as part of the Gulf Kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification scheme, said Khalid Al-Mudaifer, Deputy Industry and Mineral Resources Minister.
Mudaifer, quoted by the Saudi daily Al-Madina on Friday, said mega projects launched in the world’s largest oil exporter over the past few years have a value of more than 5 trillion riyals ($1.33 trillion) and that more such projects are in the pipeline.
“These projects have largely boosted demand for steel… we expect this demand to surge by at least 150 percent in the next few years thanks to these projects,” he said.
“To face this increase, there are steel projects in the Kingdom worth nearly $12 billion while total investments in metals exceed 120 billion riyals ($32 billion).”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/saudi-arabia-to-invest-12bln-in-steel-projects/
Cold bonded briquettes for DRI-EAf 'green steel'. The issue is that Vale project a 10s mtpa deficit in the requisite 67% Fe by 2030. So where's it coming from?
12/11/23 • Environment, Iron Ore
Revolution in the global steel industry: Vale inaugurates the world's first briquette plant in Vitória, Brazil
More than 30 companies have already shown interest in receiving shipments of briquette in 2024. As it is an innovative product, production for the first two years will be used for testing at these clients' facilities. Most of the interested parties are from Europe and the Middle East, but there have been requests from clients all over the world, including Brazil, guaranteeing demand for more than a year. In 2024, the two Tubarão plants will produce around 2.5 million tons. Production will gradually increase until it reaches 6 million tons per year.
https://vale.com/w/revolution-in-the-global-steel-industry-vale-inaugurates-the-worlds-first-briquette-plant-in-vitoria-brazil/-/categories/1968809