Idea for GGP's future - Part 222 Jan 2021 12:43
As a result having thought about it more I don’t think i’ve ever been as bullish about GGP as I am today, despite Scally - I’m not even fussed about the Juri JV. It is Havieron that is the key to everything. I don’t see an active, corporate guy like Shaun sitting around waiting for potential results to come in from our greenfield exploration programmes at our various projects (more likely he will divest them tbh). Like at Northern Star I think he will leverage the company’s assets a step at a time, in this case using the fantastic economics offered by Havieron to take the first step of really moving GGP into the producer league and out of the explorer league. This will be done by supporting the financing of any new acquisition(s) of small-mid cap, well run mines, with our sizeable asset and look to achieve a high and quick level of return by drilling out already proven resources and getting them mined in quick fashion. Early on in his presentation Shaun talks about the work of Northern Star’s Business Development team in identifying possible suitable acquisitions - and this should be something to look out for. This style will probably require greater institutional involvement and will take time and is the exact reason why we see a movement from impatient to patient hands of the shares.
Think about it - Havieron is great but for GGP it doesn’t offer any real work to do - it’s in Newcrest’s control and GGP is a major beneficiary; but Shaun Day is not someone who just rests on his laurels, he is a man of corporate action, and as I said before I can’t see him hanging around waiting for speculative exploration results to come in while Havieron is shining. Therefore value creation and recognition for the shareholder is not likely to come about through potential hit and miss exploration programmes (though this would be great don’t get me wrong), or at least relied upon so heavily with Shaun in charge. I would posit that a lot of frustration on the chat over the past week stems from people thinking GGP was nearing its true current value when it was in the 30s, although un-risked increasing to upwards of 60p (we saw all the DCFs and subsequent discussions etc) and felt a general sense that future big increases in the share price were becoming harder to foresee and there was an air of an unsustainable situation being apparent. That is why i’m bullish on GGP and Shaun Day, because his appointment is an inflection point, a sign that GGP does not intend to stand still, but move things forward in a way that Shaun has experience in being a major part of.
So, I am putting it out there that I think GGP will be making at least one acquisition in the next 12-18 months and will look to replicate a sizeable rise in underlying gold reserves and asset values that was seen at Shaun’s previous Gold mining company. Corporate action is the way forward and Havieron is the fuel.
GLA
MH
Presentation link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRlshVfcnh0&feature=youtu.be