Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Quite refreshing to see such a cool head. Think such an objective shareholder group that doesn’t not hold any predetermined allegiances to either side etc but have only the interests of the company at the front of the minds and therefore their investment is a great idea. Asking both sides objectively for facts and views is bound to bring out contradictions or misinformation etc somewhere from either of them, and will illuminate any webs that have been spun and weaved, and ultimately probably provide the best platform for shareholders to base their decision off rather than falling into line automatically with a side. Bravo to the committee members for setting it up.
Very nice I’m adding too I think VRFB is a good bet on the energy transition
harikiri, yours is a good post, i tried doing the same by putting forward a lot of questions for us as shareholders to ask ourselves of the new group.
looking at their professional histories my concern about messrs koot and rollins align with your fears - they have mixed experience with some success but some god awful failures too where they have just milked companies dry, and i think the two previous neds simply see a nice potential payday awaiting themselves if they pull it off while ******* of their old colleague. someone has also told me there was some shenanigans regarding hemant’s resignation which i would like to hear more about. the fact he’s apparently been building rival graphite operations and buying from competitors seems worse than the current related parties actually buying from the company. was he doing this while he was a director? if that’s the case then it’s essentially kneecapping tgr and a move to then take it out on the cheap would be a logical motivation and again offer the new group a nice payday. something to consider for us shareholders so we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot and basically lose our investment completely, just where does this group’s interests actually reside? certainly a messy situation.
i haven’t decided yet but i’m not voting for this group just because i’m ****ed off at the share price. the market seems unsure too. i want to
understand what the actual consequences are likely going to be if things go one way or another.
Very interesting to see this investment - Vanadium a mineral for the future!
Definitely this requisition comes at quite a concerning time for us shareholders and from alarming quarters too. 2 of the proposed directors say they have been in contact with the company for a year+ and the other 2 are previous NEDs brought in to help I assume at the time, especially the finance one Erden, what happened there? Also will we risk a case whereby the two previous NEDs are simply yes men for the other 2 and do we as shareholders trust the sincerity and honesty of the other 2? It would be good to know if these directors already hold significant shares. But it does seems like a big gap in seniority and experience exists between them and the 2 previous NEDs?
My main concern now as a shareholder is that could this action ultimately sink the ship? What makes the proposed directors suitable for this action and to replace the entire board? I could understand if the two junior guys stood down from the board to be honest, even if they are good at what they do day to day and make way for people with a strong board experience who can provide cautious oversight, like with the original structure of the board, with a composition that allows for robust board level decision making.
Of the proposed directors, what experience and knowledge do they have of mining, the company and graphite? Most importantly how long would a transition such as what they envisage require set the company back by, 6 months, a year, longer? Can such a delay/transition be afforded?
If the company was sorting itself out then obviously this action as mentioned by some below already will have probably disrupted everything that was ongoing, yes to the detriment of the company, albeit in the short term perhaps. If operations ie the business are effected where does that leave us?
If the company is indeed in dire straits then perhaps this action is necessitated. Questions should be asked why the company has struggled so long with a working capital gap, and still do as far as we shareholders are aware? What gives the requisition group the confidence they won’t run into similar hurdles? What gives shareholders the confidence we won’t be diluted into oblivion by either group?
It does feel like *something* has to change - but is it chicken and egg? Fingers crossed for all holders. Managing the risk for how to vote on this is tricky to say the least.
Important to look at it objectively:
- Syrah burnt through $80-100m last year and appear years away from profitability hence it’s diluted it’s shares by factors over the years just to survive, and will likely continue to dilute, making previous highs likely unattainable for holders of it.
- TGR seems to only needs some sort of small capital as it’s stated before, to allow it to unlock its higher levels of production that should bring some decent cash its way rather than out the door each year overall by my calcs, do your own research btw.
Of the two companies, I know which position I’d rather be in as a business (TGR by far), important to note how and why each is different, here I’m more focussed on the underlying business performance prospects.
Gold rallying looking v interesting here
This board does go from one haunting to the next!
Evidently there’s a working capital gap as mentioned in the last one or two RNS: VAT refund likely a solution in near term /+ a working capital facility, give the recent RNS a read. If they get some money from any of these avenues clearly this is primed for a very strong move, just look what it did on tiny volume the other day +30%!
Interesting the Australian connection is highlighted they value graphite companies much differently over there perhaps the valuation disconnect will become more apparent through the new broker.
Plaza is bang on here, sensitivity around certain info in such specialist and competitive industries can’t be underestimated. Though I’m sure professionals reading this will enjoy reading Fairdealer’s post.
Very reassuring update. Tempted to buy in.
My read is that the visit to Madagascar in early Feb has got the wheels in motion for these which is why the timing indications are sounding more confident. If they do start to receive repayments of parts or all of the outstanding amount then things could change here very quickly to the upside based on the outlines in the recent RNS’s
Not one to comment too often but bizarre reaction to today’s Reach RNS - evidently the company is making an effort to demonstrate to a wide audience where it sits in the global graphite supply chain - this will probably be seen by new investors and even customers so likely a net positive. How many of us on here saw this map before the announcement?
The opportunity is very apparent - TG appears under-capitalised to exploit the advanced position it has got to within a growing market with huge potential, but as some others said, yesterday’s RNS laid out quite nicely some very close items that will go a long way to solving its operational issues I thought.
To address a couple of points from what I see:
The board has a makeup to drive things forward so I’d expect grievances at “stagnation” around certain matters will probably now end as things can be delivered further by an extended executive team.
Also good to see there is an active search for a CFO and new NEDs.
Importantly, the working capital facility as Saluc points out is being enabled by the Chairman’s personal guarantee. Now we don’t know how much the facility is worth but it’s a personal risk for the chairman - how many other execs would do this? If the amount is decent it could go a long way and shows the intent of the management to push forward while the markets are dire for tapping support. A credit to them for this imo.
Also the VAT news is very encouraging. We saw recent visits to Madagascar and looks like the momentum has been maintained in pursuing the VAT refunds - $2m back to the company changes its fortunes very quickly imo.
I agree Saluc, a major item raised of concern has now been addressed and now derisks this to a fair extent - the idea of TGR going private no longer holds water. Would have been good to be addressed sooner but this is a very positive development from my perspective.
Quite an interesting couple of RNS’s
Fantastic
Think we are nearing a rally point for Raw materials
Management have done seriously well here - oil pricing raging once again. if it looked strong at $75/bbl how does AET fare now with improved and larger deals at an oil price around $95/bbl!?
Suspension - said it was very unfortunate. He said that he is looking at building the TGR team to boost abilities on the finance and reporting ends.
Mozambique - currently still optimising the BAT studies per July RNS, enhancements to be had because of the ability to source things from India and better processing techniques.
Future potential expansion of Madagascar by extra 6,000tpa as also referred to in RNS, this was suggested as possibly to be done with own resources or by leveraging those resources following completion of the ramp up given the earlier discussion on maths at 2000MTs a month. If they achieve the ramp up, based on sales and cost numbers established so far in their previous results, it would potentially provide them more options for natural growth, so I guess it's wait and see.
Graphite market - sees a big deficit in 2025 and thinks TGR will be very well placed. The current situation will allow TGR to stand out while the others have struggled.
VAT receivables - election year in Madagascar means it’s harder to get much out of the government but that the money will eventually come, and they are working closely with the government to that end.
The next Sustainability report would be quite comprehensive and is on the agenda. Also noted comments on the pr and ir strategy and agreed it was due an overhaul quite soon.
Sees London as a good market but that it respects money making businesses and understood more institutions are attracted to those companies that turn a profit. He said he’s here to mine graphite and NOT mine the capital markets - I liked that. He wants people to understand there’s a business being built, just takes time. He made a comparison and he pointed to NextSource which is taking nearly a whole year to ramp up only a 17,000tpa module.
Overall my experience was positive and I felt enthusiastic about the future for TGR.
Been watching this for a while and it was suggested to me and I thought it would be a good chance to work out for myself what this is all about by meeting with Mr P this week. Surprised some have been so negative tbh about these meetings. I was reassured this 1 to 1 format wasn't a replacement of the online group meetings, but I agree with other posters that the opportunity for a face to face was a great idea for those interested in the investment thesis here, and of course is a great way to address concerns directly - much better than behind a keyboard or screen.
Couple points below and in next post:
Ramp up - this was said to be the priority per recent RNS for the stated guidance with the Q2 50% run rate and sounds confident for Q3 - hopefully the next results will back this up. At that Q3 target of 75% run rate, simple maths says at near 2,000MT a month of production and sales this would equal quite significant cashflow given the sort of expenses established so far in previous results. Nothing guaranteed but sounded confident and keen to demonstrate they can deliver. The prepayments sounded like they were useful for sorting some inputs needed to further boost the rate of production as well as of course winning new business and customers for the company.
Upgraded infrastructure and PCU flow sheet innovation provides more resilience to future poor weather.
The India connection is very useful as there is a larger spot market there which means consumers prefer to buy locally and is actually a way for TGR to break into that growing market - adds all sales are reviewed by their auditors.
Asked if he needs to raise given speculation online - given he wouldn’t raise in the mid 30s and the price is lower, plus the prepayments in August, was surprised this was even a question. He’s a major shareholder so has no interest in diluting his own or current shareholders’ stakes, especially if not necessary - he thinks the current value is crazy low vs peers, although acknowledges the guidance miss was big and suspension caused some concerns (which he emphasised were to do with processes for submitting the accounts not anything else), and that the prepayments are a prime example of how solid relationships allow the company to find innovative solutions.
It's just a matter of balancing between ramp up costs before becoming an earning company in the near term in my opinion. I personally think a big and quick step up is very possible based on some quick maths based on the figures achieved to date extrapolated over the next several months if and when the ramp up is fully achieved according to their stated targets. As referenced in RNS, they feel avoiding dilution is preferred, especially given the Company is hopefully on the cusp of what is hoped to be a much higher operational rate and financial performance than previous FYs should they hit their targets this quarter and the next and going forward.
Finally, always enjoy the RIO divis