focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Services inflation has broken out now- hike now or hike later.
Potentially only way to break inflation large job losses - not on most people’s bingo card.
Not why I was writing tho…
When buying Hummingbird I shot first and asked questions later( that’s now).
IRR at KOR on $2000 oz over 90% so it makes sense massive upside there.
Combine than with optimised YAN and upside … management just need to focus on these assets and get the cash coming in .
Dugbe is just a sideshow for the next 1-2 years. It can’t divert attention.
There’s a serious question to be asked IMHO - cashflows should be prioritised on both operational assets only until debt free and clear line of sight on LOM extensions.
Will also be interesting watching progress at KOR also.
The pit shell design is based on $1500 oz.
I’d be thinking there’s some serious value to be created in revisiting this with a $2000z and $2500oz scenarios.
Interesting regarding comments on Heaped Leaching option.
Other plays I have in STH America seem to be able get it into production quickly and cheaper aisc than there main mines.
In recent presentations they have it as resource from 2026 to 2030 on YAN.
If it is an option, should be a cheap and easy source of free cashflows.
The worst issue in the world to have right now is debating on hold cash or pay back debt early with penalties… hahah
Let’s get a few months in $$ flowing and go from there.
One topic I didn’t spend any attention on when completing due diligence was the heap leach potential. Irrelevant at the time.
Is this feeding tailings through or other low grade deposits around Yan?
Have anyone attempted to quantify this? Small scale operations 10-15k oz year cost around $10-15m around $1100aisc in other operations I’ve seen bolted onto existing mines.
Cheers
Now the MC reflects buying 1 brand new mine on 1 x CF
Everything else is free
Certainly should rocket with few months free cash rolling in .
More importantly the whole business can be derisked while
the general sharemarkets does it’s end of cycle thing over the next year.
Yep post the Fed hitting the money printer again $2500 oz within a day lol.
Can now sit tight and watch this thing go from 6p purchase to 1st scale down zone $350MC
Good luck
You need to take a 3 year view on gold price.
Using $2700oz on 2024.
NPV
KOR $500m
Yan $100m maybe
Dugbe $400m
Likely need a sustained period over $2300 oz for new gold bull market.
Share buybacks are key and removal of debt.
You should be able to put a basket of 7 names together of that would do 10x
Would be crazy to just rely on this for your exposure, anything over 1% exposure per name is high.
It fits into the basket well will it’s scale and active catalyst to rerate on KOR.
Dugbe will get a buyer in a gold bull market.
Pretty simple if you care to look at the daily volumes traded. No need for a tin foil hat.
Just imagine if the contra stock promoter was around in Jan-March …
HUM should rerate 2-3x higher after full production starts at KOR in next months.
Q1 2024 with massive debt reduction it’s only going up.
2025 we should be looking at $1b market cap
If this was going to get taken out, the time was when the CIG stake was proposed. Could have trumped it or taken out the Ruffer panic sell last year . Unlikely now.
Barrick might consider taking out Lumina Gold ( Note this will be sold pre production ) , can’t see logic on hummingbird.
Has anyone ever heard what the debt payback profile looks like ? I can’t locate.
Can’t imagine it’s difficult to run a few scenarios at $1700, $1900, $2100 spots.
1st gold pour is obviously good , but clarifying when it can no longer go bankrupt/ No debt is handy knowledge for the real rerating time line.
I’m thinking 15 months post 1st gold