focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Not bothering listening to interview.
But let me guess , had some issues, working through them, it was wet so didn’t help but now drying out, some other issues etc but working through..
They have high debt cause it takes money to build things, like every pre production mine , debt profile pushed out cause major shareholder also owns debt, they probably want to 10 bag their equity stake over 5 years.
Key take away, Buy Low and Sell High - FY 24 still on track etc … ie nothing changed
Anyone that actually looks across the globe for jnrs gold miners would know they’re all getting hammered right now.
I can only hope for a bigger sell off to add more lol
Good luck
This reaction is typical across the sector atm, any news is bad news. Newmont now getting close to 5 year lows is telling.
When the major debt and shareholder has renegotiated the debt profile for increased flexibility for the equity holders. Everyone is aligned in getting this one up and firing.
I’m not sure anything has changed, some increased debt isn’t uncommon at this stage of the game( show me a name that hasn’t done this).
Position sizing is key to not getting shaken out and having a basket of names , very easy to do right now.
I can’t see any real forward looking statements that changes the play in the RNS.
The sector is dirt cheap now, adding to other names this week.
Good luck
Tell me what my POG assumptions are / needed then ?
Should be easy given the knowledge available.
Yep I could be wrong. Suggest asking management what the debt profile looks like with varies POG, 12 months post full ramp q4 23.
Good luck
KOR has massive reserves that need to be converted, ie management have advised drilling to commence Q3/q4 from memory.
Need to consider the pit shell was based on $1500oz POG …from memory also.
Updated mine plan on $2000 POG would be interesting on its own( other names are using $2000-2500) to develop long life mines.
There’s plenty of gold to work will.
We’re now talking about dividends … last week Wagner Group we’re going to steal the mines !!
Geez I just can’t keep up.
How about 20-30% of shares get bought back in 2024??? To remove dilution earlier this year???
Re Valuation
Moving into full and steady production at both mines should re rate 2 -3x Cash Flows.
What no one mentions is what value to place on Dugbe?
Thinking here is the asset is a Call Option on POG.
It stays live as long as Hum does.
Hum stake is 3 mill oz gold
3m x $35oz purchase price - say $us 100m, so value of the call option is currently free but should be 1x current MC.
Call option becomes in the money when Dug can get funded- say needs a IRR 50-60%.
So POG $2800 ish . ( I haven’t looked that closely lately)
Anyway food for thought.
Best
Interesting looking at the valuation of Robex Gold vs Hum, they are almost identical companies but Hum assets better + Dugbee
You should check it out … makes the current MC of Hum look comical cheap/ so absurd.
Emrobex are trading on 4 x CF from their mine in Mali.
Have plans for another mine around 90-100oz year , not funded but targeting 1st pour 25/26!
Slap a 4 x on hum 2024 CF - what we talking , market cap $us 600m..
From the October/Nov lows last year it very much looks the whole gold mining industry is in the Awareness Phase pull back.
I’ve got other names with similar leverage to Hum , but nothing with the “potential cashflows” backing the share price in 2023/24.
It does make this very interesting watching.
It’s really this simple to view HUM right now-
Does it have enough working capital to fund KOU into name plate production- Yes/No ( I haven’t anyone say there isn’t)
KOU hits name plate production in next few months- Yes/No ( management said it’s on track)
Extend LOM at Yan/KOU and communicate to market - 5 years of future production would be good to know.
Then wait to 2024 for the real re rate to occur - once debt load removed , 3-4x cash flows would be pretty normal.
Every $150oz increase in POG = 1x increase in todays MC !!
Dugbee is really a call option on $2700-$3000oz - at some point it’s in the money ( few times current MC).
No point debating small details - if management does it’s thing well/ just ok , then HUM is a nicely loaded call option on gold 2024-26. Any increase in POG will be converted directly into cashflows … how many other miners would be debt free and throwing off massive free cash in 2024??
Please advise
Haha dump all your stock immediately, no time to waste…
Amazing stuff, right before it’s starts blowing cash out at an insane rate vs Mc.
If you’re negative now , you really should have panic sold at some other point over last few years.
Why wait for high gold prices and low oil and a new mine to panic??
As stated previously, interesting case study at play.
If you’re really concerned write the question to management.
Judgement day is still Q3/4 2024
Sounds like everyone stuck on “glass half empty” side of the boat still.
If low oil prices and high gold spot prices don’t get Hum across the line now… well maybe just invest in GDX or Physical gold.
Lot less risk now than 6 months ago. Will be interesting when everyone bulls up
For comparison review cashflow potential and dates of 1st pour vs market cap of some TSX listed names.
Marathon Gold
Bluestone Resources
Lumina Gold
Cerrado Gold- this screens well.
If we get a liquidity crunch there may a chance to get this real cheap - they already are tho.
Hum is 1st cab of the rank - debt free in 12 months?
What makes HUM different from the other producers is it has the active catalyst to rerate in multiples.
What makes it a real interesting case study. The active catalyst has just occurred and the share price has gone down.
It’s a perfect set up now, what occurred with coal and oil names in 2020/21 was a massive set of jaws opened up.
High spot prices/high cash generating vs market cap remained subdued or went down.
It was a perfect entry point for people who missed to bottom.
Assuming no left field events, this is lining up for a rinse and repeat.
Just a matter of sitting tight and let it rip. Q3/4 2024 I think everyone will be pleased they sat on there hands.
Gets interesting when you have line of sight on cashflows and MC goes down.
Coal and oil did this in 2021 on purchased positions in 2020.
They rip hard when debt load melts away.
Let’s see if this one is rise and repeat.