Member Info for Millionaire106

Anyone with a bit of patience and a half decent time horizon on these shares (Mine is min 2 year hold) will make a fortune.
Been absolutely loading up on these price dips. What a gift :)
While others a panicking and seeing only the black clouds that are immediately in front of us, I see a HUGE buying opportunity. There are blue skies ahead, you just have to be able to see them.
All the best

I'm sure they'll find a way Rogue, they always do. There is too much at stake for them to keep ****ing it up. The black clouds have to lift at some point.

At the end of the day though it will either all go tits up (which I doubt but there is always possibility) or they'll get their arses into gear and start jabbing at an unprecedented rate when the Oxford jab gets approved hopefully between now and new year.

With regards to Saga the Investment will either multi bag from these lowly levels or it will all unravel very quickly and go bust (again I doubt it but anything is possible)

I've personally got well over £100k invested here so I obviously think the first scenario is more likely.

Time will tell of course if my decision to make this my 3rd largest position is an inspired one or whether I've completely lost the plot.

I do know one thing though... it will be a bumpy ride and one will need balls of steel to prevail in this environment. We will either be spectacuarly correct or wrong. Most will not be able to handle the volatility here and will sell before the turnaround starts to take effect.

I don't rate Euan Sutherland either. IMO he's a top rate corporate bull****ter so sincerely hoping RDH gets rid of him quick smart. If that happens and I hear the right noises I'll double down here I think.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/oxford-vaccine-approve-christmas-covid-b1776481.html%3famp

I bet a minimum of 20/30m people will be vaccinated by April time including all those over 50 and most vulnerable categories!

The media are trying to scare everyone again with this new variant but it still uses the same protein to get into the human body and it is that protein that the vaccines destroy!

Something needs to change soon and we need to get back to normal otherwise if we keep messing about like we are there won’t be anything to go back to!

And to stay above the trend line!
If it goes red today and breaks the trend line we could be heading towards the 50 day ma.
It’s quite pathetic really as it’s small pot buyers and sellers that are causing this. No decent volume going through. Small time sellers selling a few hundred to a few thousand shares. Embarrassing really how the price has drifted down on such marginal buying and selling activity.
There are no institutional shorters here and Setanta have stopped selling too so marginal sellers and buyers causing this drift!
Got to laugh really

Haha indeed!

Can’t touch this!

As it’s in a frustrating down trend atm! Needs to put in an inverse hammer in the chart at the close today otherwise could keep sliding.

Now trading at circa 3.5 x next years earnings. I'll have a few more and will just keep buying.
People genuinely have zero patience do they haha

For people who generally have high portfolio churn or feel the need to constantly react (Buy & sell) to news events .
This quote changed my life and my portfolio returns have significantly outperformed for 2 decades as a result :)
Stick it somewhere where you will see it everyday and hopefully it can help you too.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient” — Warren E Buffett

All the best and See you all in a year or two :)

IMO a Brexit deal will happen, both sides have too much at stake for a no deal. A no deal just doesn't make any sense for either party. I've just had a look on the betting sites and "DEAL" is 1/3 on vs "NO DEAL" at 2/1 so DEAL is still comfortably the most likely outcome.
With regards to vaccines, The Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine is likely to be approved by the MHRA before Christmas.
After speaking to a close friend about it though (who works in the sector), he's certain that the new trial they are doing (with the 1/2 dose followed by a full dose) will confirm the 90% + efficacy and show that the vaccine is just as effective for the over 55's as it is for younger folks.
Thought it was quite interesting insight.

CCL also has a crippling amount of debt and a balance sheet that looks like a bomb has hit it! The bonds definately look safer than the equity imo.

Saga on the other hand is now v well financed with a cash cow of an insurance business covering all travel division costs whilst we wait for cruising to resume. The 2 new top of the range cruise liners will then contribute a combined circa £80m ebitda per annum.
Don’t be surprised if we hit 80p eps next year :)

Sensible post Pianista.
After speaking to friends in the city and a few other knowledgeable contacts I'm working on assumptions that they'll do somewhere in the 60-80p eps region next year. On a multiple of 10 (which is still light imo) I get a minimum SP range of circa £6-8. I see earnings going alot higher than that going into fy 22 though as consumer confidence returns and life gets back to normal.
That's why this is a minimum of a 2 year hold for me and I'll add on any weaknesses.

I don’t think £10-12 within the next 12-18 months is out of reach at all.
Unbelievably underpriced at these levels vs outlook

Saga floated in 2014 with a market capitalisation of £2.1 Billion.
That’s equivalent to a current share price of £15!
My guess is that they get back to that level of earnings comfortably and drive down debt hard within the next 12-18 months!
This will trigger a significant re-rating imo!
The more I read into the facts and the forward prospects of the group the more confident I become that Saga is one of the best recovery plays available.

Correct... no short positions.
Not that it particularly matters as nothing is going to stop Saga being at multiples of this level in the next 6,12,18 months.

Having a good dig into the accounts it doesn’t look like there’s much left that they could impair/write down so one would think all big impairments are now behind us.
Accounts going forward should be clean with minimal adjustments thus underlying and reported eps should be pretty much the same.
That’s why I reckon 80p eps for next year is very doable and minimum of 90-100p for 22/23.
Really is dirt cheap at the moment on a forward multiple.

I’ve read the simplywallst write up and imo they are using old data to form their analysis.
At least I’m using different assumptions and to me this seems like one of the best recovery opportunities out there.
Obviously good to hear the bear case but I’m backing that to get trampled on as we head into 2021 and beyond.
As always DYOR

Is key here folks. There is a lot of noise atm but inevitably earnings will do the talking over the next couple of years. Short term retracements really don’t matter (as annoying as it is)
70/80p eps next year and £1+ in 22/23 so at current lowly levels the sp is just completely bonkers.
If people don’t get the investment case here then that’s their problem. I’m happy to keep taking their cheap shares off them as imo we’ll be at multiples of this level once the wider market understand the investment case.
Just a time to stay strong and patient and keep collecting the gift of cheap shares were being presented with currently.
Our time will come sooner than many think imo.

Hope the shorters get smashed to hell.. they are a gloomy bunch!
We’ve all had enough gloom this year I’m ready for some blue sky’s and holidays

Going down like a wet fart atm!
Joke really

100% agree Aspers. I've spoken to loads of people recently who have said can't wait to get out on the ocean waves again and just holiday in general.
To be fair alot of the pure play travel companies have probably overshot to the upside now and are trading at around 15/20 x 2022 forecasted earnings, and don't forget many of these have colossal debt mountains and are in a v precarious situation.

Saga however is very well financed with the balance sheet looking great post equity raise & RDH's huge investment. Interest payments on loans are easily covered by the insurance business so when these ships start again it will be superbly earnings enhancing imo.
Saga are trading at a P/E of around 3.9 currently (Analysts reckon they can do 70p eps next year) that's just ridiculously low imo and we have a lot of re-rating to do before we reach fair value imo.