Member Info for Millionaire106

Thanks Joe,
It's funny how silly little bits in the press affect the short term price like that isn't it. And how people actually let that influence their decision making.
I'm purely focused on the long term fundamentals and the recovery potential here. That's all that matters.
We know a vaccine is imminent and will be rolled out asap which is fantastic news. The demographic of Saga's customers will more than likely all be vaccinated in Q1 so I would anticipate a return to cruising by latest April 2021.
I'm v intrigued by the opportunity here :)

Hopefully Jed :) I'll back up the truck again if we do!

I simply base my assumptions on achievable earnings and think 21/22 onwards will be bumper years.
I reckon they'll do at least 80p eps next year (21/22) put that on an earnings multiple of say 10-12 and you get a price range of £8-10 for next year.
Say £1 eps by fy 22/23 same multiples gives a range of £10-12.
Imo both scenarios are very achievable with the wind behind us which hopefully it will be.
Worst case scenario £6-8 based on 50-60p eps

This is probably the most undervalued Covid recovery play share on the market currently.
Was speaking to a mate recently who works in the city (well usually does anyway) and he reckons when the cruise ships are sailing again in Q1 2021 Saga are likely to achieve eps of at least 80p.
So next year if they do 80p eps and apply an industry standard multiple of say 14/15 I get to a share price range of £11-12.
(139,594,769 * 0.80 = £111.7m in earnings x 14 = £11.2 per share (x 15 = £12 per share)

IMO these figures are very achievable as demand will be sky high.

As a result I've been hoovering up the shares from the £1.60 area.

GLA

If they get back to the IPO market cap that implies a share price of about £15.
It may get there but I personally have a price target of £8-12. There's absolutely no reason why it can't get there over the next 12-18 months when those cruises start creaming in the cash again.
If you're patient this could be a big winner
GLA

Someone just posted this on the ADVFN Saga board. Sums the situation up pretty well I think.

Cash burn on the cruise side is between £6-8m per month (See latest interims so you know you're figures before spouting out nonsense) no idea where u get £9.5m from.

The cash flow from the insurance operation results in overall cash burn of circa £1-2m per month so the Insurance operation is essentially stemming the flow.

They have cash on hand of £60m and an undrawn loan facility of £100m putting them in a v comfortable position and current cashburn is comfortably absorbed.

When the cruises restart in Q1 Cash flow will increase markedly with each ship contributing around £30-40m EBITDA per annum.

For a risk/reward play I think SAGA is compelling, and that's why I started backing up the truck around £1.20 and have been buying more this past week on the vaccine news.

You just have to be able to see the wood through the trees on this one.

Could end up being one of the best COVID recovery plays I reckon. The vaccine news really is transformational and I’ve been adding to my already large position on today’s news.
The 2 new all balcony ships will contribute about £40 m each of EBITDA when they start sailing again and doing my calcs I’m pretty sure they’ll be generating positive cash flows of between £180-220m per annum.
The current valuation frankly doesn’t make any sense and I’ll be adding over the coming days.
Saga is still massively under the radar imo

Hi,
Has anyone had their bonus shares hit their account yet? I was expecting a load to be in there this morning but nothing yet.
I'm with HL

Unfortunately I've decided to sell the last of my position today. The latest RNS was the last straw and din't read well at all to me. They seem like a very confused and directionless bunch.
All the best to you holders, I hope it recovers for you.

I really have no idea what that RNS is about! They really are shooting themselves in the foot here with all these daft RNS's. They simply need to focus on making the core offering work.
Definitely priced to fail now.
Could go bust could 10 bag! 50/50 flip of a coin

Looks like all the institutions have started getting out. Using all the newbies for liquidity!
Be v careful folks
Have a good weekend

That's right Sam current SP of £2.30 equates to a TERP of 77p. I was referring to market cap scenarios however.
Anyway whatever you decide to do Good luck

Exactly, so one would reasonably expect with such a dilutive placing (3 for 10) the share price will settle somewhere in the 80-100p region, maybe slightly less. That will leave RR with a mkt cap just slightly below what it was before the March Covid market sell off.
I'm looking for a TERP price of more 50-60p

If you own the shares by COB on the 27th Oct you will qualify for the rights issue. That's why I'm holding off buying back as close to the 27th Oct as possible.

Like I said I sold the last of mine this morning after that meteoric rise.
Just seen this on twitter which kind of puts it into perspective.
I hate shorting and won't be doing so myself but I think quite a few people are starting too now.... be careful and don't get burnt if your buying in now :/

#RR #RollsRoyce mkt cap fri 2nd Oct was £2.2 B (£1.13 p/s) a week later mkt cap is £4.45 B (£2.30 p/s).
If you then add in the 6.4 Billion new shares total share count will be 8.4 Billion x £2.30 = new mkt cap of £19.3 B Face with monocle
Is this the short of the century?
@shiftingshares

I think you may be right casa, just hope people don’t get caught too badly in the inevitable dump!
It always happens... be careful out there folks
I’ve just sold the last of my stock and will look to buy back at more reasonable levels.
GLA

I bought in last week at 120 ish and am amazed how this is getting bid up like this. I’m not complaining though and have just taken most of my profit off the table.
Be careful if you’re buying now that’s all I’m saying.. I would of never expected this kind of SP rise in 18 months never mind since last Friday.
Crazy stuff

Hi All, The 330k sell is actually a buy as it was me buying a few more.
At these levels it's pretty much priced to fail imo so thought it was worth topping up a few more. From here it will either get some wind behind it again which will propel it to new highs with the introduction of the new app etc or it will keep drifting and eventually go to zero.
My thoughts are that the slightest inkling that there is decent interest and uptake of the new SaaS service by the restaurants and this will explode. If not then it will never work it's as simple as that.
It could quite easily become a terrific multi bagger or it could fail.
Don't invest with money you can't afford to lose!
As Del said in only Fools & Horses - "He who dares Rodney, he who dares" ;)
Peace out

at 73p. See how the story develops

Looks like it could finally break out next week!
Been trading in the current tight range for a while now so hopefully the price action follows a breakout from this level 1 base.
All the best