RE: Forecast margins 20214 Jan 2021 07:30
Jam1, your points are very considered, very possible and noted, however I will stick with my valuation of 4 times plus current share price at the end of the year for the following reasons. Yes, EPS allows for the deduction of tax and it is this figure that drives the official PE rate. In my example I have just shortcut complex calculations, in the belief a much higher PE rate will be used and more than compensate for the tax deduction. Jub’s I believe will be viewed much differently at the end of the current year due to substantially increasing profits on a very sustainable basis. It is more likely the market will forward price as well due to continued substantial increase in growth. I also feel the macro environment will support higher PE rates as well with increasing metal prices, recovery from Covid, green revolution and finalisation of Brexit -viewing British based companies differently even though this didn’t really effect Jub’s in reality. Whilst pipeline projects may be on the drag, equally they may be sped up, due to enhanced cash flow and experience gained during the last and next 24 months. Increased cash flow will certainly help deliver targets faster and the price of metals is certainly helping here( think plat nearly 1100 dollars as we speak), so whilst projects may be on the drag, they may also be accelerated . Forecasts for metal prices are going through the roof, so this is going to have a major impact on profits. There is a green revolution going on and would companies prefer Jub’s product to reduce their own foot print ( would they pay a premium for this product?) will this alone increase the PE rate. I am busting with optimism about the future for Jub’s and feel a lot more deals will be put on the table as well driving the PE rate up on forward pricing. All in all I am very comfortable with my prediction of 4 times current share price and hopeful of higher. My glass is certainly half full! Either way Jub’s is a massive winner.