Member Info for Mikiesunday

Difficult day today chaps! Just remind yourself the fundamentals and profits are rising everyday! Sooner or later the share price will align itself to the profits!! The best things come to those who wait!! Picture this - a few market makers trying to hold down our magnificent herd of rampaging elephants!! Won’t be long before they break the shackles!

Got to love that herd of elephants Gray!

Yep, was fag packet calculating an increase on efficiency of first half production of 25 percent. Giving an extra 7.5M. Metal price increase of 25 percent giving an extra 9.3M. Missing chrome sales ( stockpile) 2-4M giving an extra 4-8M for the second half. New copper production of 2000 tonnes of copper giving 8M extra. Cobalt at a rate of 6-1 and the same production cost (50 percent ) giving £6M. Arriving at approximately 94-98m operational earnings. Plus there is joint earnings to add and any further metal price rises. I appreciate all has to go well, but equally copper production could be higher , metal prices could also really ramp up! These are fag packet figures, but in my opinion possible!

Hi Gray, are you looking at revenue, rather than operational earnings? Would only really expect tax and head office/ centralised costs to apply. But yes always optimistic!

Some great comments and discussions here over the last couple of days. Made for some very good reading this morning. I’m still very hopeful of operational earnings approaching 100M for current year ( would be a massive statement by Jubes) and highlight the very good work achieved in cranking up efficiency over the last 6 months, combined with incredible rises in metal prices highlighted here on Friday. A further small rise in prices could just get this across the line. Applying a rate of nearly 10 toEBITDA would just about give a 1BN company after this years results. Quite incredible really with so much to come ( rampaging elephants). I know most here take a cautious approach to earnings, but reality is reality and Leon is starting to continually over deliver and not under deliver making me optimistically bullish. I hope the new institutional investor is Blackrock as I feel they are highly regarded in this sector and would signal a real vote of confidence in Jubes to the market. Very confident of 20p plus here in July and 50p plus at the end of the year. Some great volume here at present, building the platform for the next leg up. Long may the volume continue and then it’s only a matter of time before the price rises!

This allows no forward pricing and no cobalt production at all. So plenty of room for a price of 40-50p

Alternatively, could use EBIDTA and as per the link an industry average rate of 9.25. https://www.eval.tech/valuation-multiples-by-industry/2017/Mining-Aug17.pdf
I feel an operating profit of £80M is fairly safe giving first half operational of £30M. Add in 10M for copper ( 4 months production of 2500 tonnes) which is probably on the cautious side. Increase first half by earnings by 33 percent to allow for increased production and rising prices ( probably on the cautious side as production has increased quite substantially through the first six months, along with very substantial price rises.) So £80M times 9.25 equals £740M. Divide by current market cap £283M equals 2.614. Multiply by current share price equals 35p per share.

Been here for nearly 5 years and have seen some pretty dark times! Placings galore and nothing but promises to live on. Colins cannon was the shorters favourite term! The only term some of them knew!!. All this said and done I’ve never been happier to be here and certainly won’t be moved easily! There wasn’t any real revolutionary news in the broker note today, but it did bring home just what we’ve got here and what seasoned professionals thought. This was applause of the loudest nature! If I took home a school report like that my parents would have been very happy! Ecstatic even. It’s all here from the management down. What has been achieved in such a short period! Jubes is lightning quick! This is a sure sign of a dedicated focused management from top down. We are now highly cash generative and self funding( SA cash cows) . With more to come here from continued enhancements and improvements. Massive copper production to start in one months time and steadily ramp up over the next couple of years like a herd of rampaging elephants creating a tidal wave of cash! More metals to come into production at Kabwe. More deals being done as we speak! Deals between the lines like Tjate and Australia. So much so, Jubes does not stand still for one minute. In fact it would appear the broker is struggling to keep up with growth and developments, understandably so with the progress over the last couple of years. With the next couple of years set to move even faster. This has been the game plan of a master tactician. Boy, is Colins cannon now paying dividends. The dark years well and truly behind us, I can sincerely say I’ve never been happier to be here. The future is ours, just a matter of patience now, whether it’s 1 week, 1 month, 6 months - a re rate is on its way.

Yes great point on DCM Jonah as that’s the first real news there in ages, underlining ownership of the asset and bringing the same into play.

Oh yes indeed. My apologies to Kalan an absolute master on here. He was one of the original fore fathers. Was just responding to a comment from the other channel.

Been thinking this morning ( bit worrying for me!). Leon said no jurisdiction expansion in this financial period. This financial period is up in 5 months! Wow, does that mean by the end of this year we could well and truly be milking the South African cash cows! Under awe from the mighty roar of the of the Elephants and boxing clever with the kangaroos! One thing is for sure Colin and Leon both said the next geographical project is going to have to well and truly stack up ( what are they planning?) I feel it will be big! In the meantime more mundane items to worry about, like next copper JV/ acquisition to be confirmed. Numbers of elephants to be confirmed. Kabwe to get underway. New chrome processing plant to get underway. Tjate discussions ongoing. Plenty to keep the share price ticking while we await the big number confirmations!! Keep the faith Deme I’ve been in Jubes for approaching 5 years. Owe a debt to Losta and Plat Hunter in the dark years, they kept my faith!

Didn’t a lot of the options just get exercised by the directors?

Perfectly put Shivers and at a market average PE of 15, would equate to around 41p per share! Also highly likely operational earnings will be higher, resulting in a higher share price! But it doesn’t stop there, when the elephants arrive- Kerboom!!

I think the institutions want in purely based on fundamentals. It’s easy to see the share price is on its way to a £1 plus, it’s just a matter of how quick it gets there. If an institution buys on the open market at present it’s going to drive the share price to 20-25p in a jiffy, so they all want placings at the current price. Leon has completely ruled this out at present stating Jubes no longer needs to do this. Jubes is now generating bundles of cash via the South African Cash Cows, with the herd of elephants still to arrive! The only alternative for the II’s is the CLN’s. Acam know they only have until 3/22 to convert these and they are heavily profitable with a conversion price between 2-3p and can then be sold at 13p. Institutions wanting in are going to be all over those loan notes. They are not going to want to buy on the open market until those loan notes are gone. Acam will want to convert because of the profit they are sitting on, however they won’t want to let too many go to early because of rising share price. Once the loan notes are gone the institutions have to buy on the open market as Leon is not up for anymore equity placings. This is when the share price rockets! Maybe a slow rise to around 20p ( June time) when there is so much profit in the loan notes they can’t resist converting. Then boom- institutions have to buy on open market. No more share blocks to be had. No more easy purchases. Let the Elephants stampede!

A herd of elephants coming our way. Are we about to trample the market! Leon states another copper deal coming to market shortly! He says he’s as excited as we are with this! He talks of the sheer enormities of elephant 1, followed by elephant 2, with elephant 3 about to come to market! Looks like our cash cows have morphed into giant elephants. The November RNS states Elephant 2 ( Kitwe) can double elephant 1 production. Something big is happening here! Elephant 3 is coming and the sheer delight in Leon says it all. Currently working on a plan, processing facilities ( plenty available) and production numbers. Numbers will be updated second quarter! Leon cannot emphasise the sheer enormities here enough. Roan equals 13k tonnes, elephant 1 another 12k tonnes, elephant 2, can double elephant 1 and 3 is about to be added. What’s that coming over the hill- it’s a herd of elephants!! Leon is delivering the numbers second quarter! These could be life changing numbers for most of us! This will be a defining moment, the content here could be off the hook and we find out next quarter. This is the big picture!

Just seen the price of rhodium- $21750. Take your eyes off it for a few seconds and it flies up!! Good news everywhere. https://www.metalsdaily.com/live-prices/pgms/

That was insane. Two very big factors hit me today! Firstly Jubes is smashing its chrome target. Expecting 600M tonnes as opposed to 450M tonnes! This will enhance PGM production and Leon was referring to record production there in November and December. Wow! But what really hit me was his emphasise on project Elephant and the sheer size of it and the fact it could dwarf the targeted numbers. An update later this year on real numbers he said. I then started thinking about a debate we had on here recently about the difference Kitwe would make and I just think Leon confirmed the November RNS that project Elephant 1 and Elephant two will take production of copper to around 40M tonnes per year. The numbers are insane! Copper running at $4k per ton operating profit. Cobalt at a ratio of 6 to 1 with a street value of $36k per tonne, the operating profit will be insane! Hundreds of millions!! This is going to explode. Once the market switches on to this then boom and all in the near future. Can’t wait for the number update later this year!

Smose, was working on loan notes converted were approaching 5 percent and represented one third of loan notes. Hence leaving approaching 10 percent. May be a little under this if exact maths are done, was just using fag packet method! Lots of Management options have been converted so can’t be many left, although new ones issued every year, but you have to reward management. The market is fully aware of these so must be priced in. Will just ruffle a few feathers when converted!

Hi Smose, I’m not sure the outstanding warrants and loan notes are that high, I believe the total is under 10 percent. They are essentially already priced in, but will always cause a ripple when issued!

Interestingly Simply Wall Street have fair value for us at £0.23 and have not factored in the latest report. They also have the sector average PE at 15. I haven’t seen many forecasts here using a PE of 15. Based on our forecasts 15 equals a very big share price. I think most here believe Jubes deserves a higher than industry average PE rate because of the reduced risk in tailings and environmental advantages, especially now the projects have longevity. It’s coming - the re rate is on its way. I can feel it in the air! You cannot suppress fundamentals.