Member Info for Mikiesunday

Hi Dorf, I am very much hoping for a surprise to the upside for the first time in a while. Rhodium seems to be going up every day now and that is the biggest driver of PGM income. You did tell us this was about to happen and you appear spot on. If company guidance is to be met, the current quarter has to outperform the previous quarters. In this regard we have a very recent RNS maintaining the guidance and even suggesting there is a reasonable chance of a gain to the upside. Plus we have the wild card in Windsor. This is unknown in as much as how hard are they going to push production here? Also, hopefully we have a very strong chrome price through the whole quarter. Most anticipated results in a while!

Hi Seis/ HD43, thats some great work there and so well illustrated. Even i can follow the logic. I am very hopeful the earnings will be over $35M for the 6 months. Purely based on company guidance. Company reiterated 3000 tons of copper, meaning 2085 tons to go after 915 tons in the first half.. Company confirm 38Koz guidance for PGM ( Inyoni ) with a good chance of exceeding this. So 38,000 less 18208 achieved means 19792oz. There was no real cobalt production in the first half, but we know the first commercial sale took place this half, so must have some impact on the figures. Maybe i am being too hopefull, but i think we can take some confidence as we are using figures and guidance only just provided by the company.

Seis, that just highlights what weve been thinking. But thats looking back and its now time to look forward. No point living in the past, when its all about the future. Any chance you could produce one of your superb estmates for the current quarter? Maybe assuming expected production is reached. Plus an amount for Windsor? It is capable of 2,500oz per month? We know the current cost of production from the latest update. This quarter may surprise to the upside in more ways than one. Would be great to see one of your charts. Hope you dont mind me asking.

Seis, I think you have hit the nail on the head with progression. From my own time lines and expectations i feel we are 18-24 months behind the hoped for schedule. Some of this is down to poor planning and the lions share is down to acts of God. The institutions are patient and see the future value here, but it probably helps very much they are in constant contact with the board and understand the situation we have been in. Unlike the smaller investor who has been badly informed, with a lot deciding to jump ship. The big shame here is the fundamentals havent changed and we are very close to cracking the Northern project, now in the near term, with the Southern project coming on line as we speak. There are likely to be disruptions, especially as Roan is expanded, but for all intensive purposes the Southern project is away. The company have clearly understood their mistakes in reporting to the market and are now taking this much more seriously with a quarterly update. The size expansion and growth undertaken by Jubilee has been enormous and was always likely to encounter problems ( no one could envisage a total lockdown and a complete hault to the supply of parts ). My point here is you are totally right about progression, but what the market has to see now, is that progression is a good way through. Inyoni is fully up and running, The Southern project is full steam ahead with Roan and Sable ramping up to full speed. I believe we will start to see the benefits of all the upgrades and new plants in the current quarter for the first time. If the expectation is to be met, we will have a good quarter of PGMs and we will have the most productive quarter of copper production to date. Couple this with strong chrome prices, increasing basket price and resilient copper prices, we will start to see the benefit of all the hard work. Cash in the bank could be rising at the fastest rate ever, just when we need it the most to fund the Northern project. The share price predictions of 20-30p of 2 years ago, still stand. The fundamentals havent changed, just been delayed. The patience of many will pay off big time here, the impatient will look back sadly at an opportunity missed. Looking forward to seeing the basket price updated this month on the other chat . Thank you for the efforts with that, but will be good to see an increase for the first time in ages!

The last couple of years seem to have dragged. Almost sucking the life out of shareholders, set back after setback. But its definately time to wake up! Inyoni all set. Roan and Sable, what a double act that is, just perfecting their performance. With Windsor being bought back into play like a trump card. I am feeling re-energised with an air of expectation, an optimism that has been sadly lacking over the last 12-18 months. Our time is coming and i am just wondering how many PGM oz's we can produce this quarter. I believe Windsor can produce upto 2,500 oz's per month. The expectation for Inyoni is 38,000, with 27,227 already in the bag, that leaves 10,773 for this quarter. Dare we dream of 18,273 pgm oz's ( 7,500 plus 10,773 ) this quarter? Are we going to finish this year with a bang? Are they going to keep Windsor going at full tilt? What are your thoughts?

Great RNS full stop. Ship completely steadied before next growth phase. Particularly excited about the current quarter with the basket price rising, copper production rising, chrome prices holding strong. Strong hints PGM production likely to surprise to the upside of guidance. Could be a good finale to the year. One figure stood out head and shoulders over the first six months was the earnings per PGM ounce of $902, opposed to $845. The cash in the bank should be building nicely now, with a blue print for the northern project expected in June. Feeling very happy now with the extra shares accumulated in the 7p region. Thank you Leon for listening and providing a quarterly update. Very important indeed, helping close out the doom mongers preying on the silence and unkown. Great RNS, setting up the current quarter nicely.

Rhodium up again. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities Thats the second week in a row. Our metals seem well of their lows now and China still has a long way to go in their industrial recovery. Could be very interesting over the next couple of months as China's productivity continues to gain momentum. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/chinese-industrial-production-462

Haha Jonah- Tomatoes would have been good last month!

Cobalt up again today. Two days in a row. On a charge? https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

That's great Seis, its all been heavily delayed, but its here now and happening as we type. Seems to me people selling up when they should be adding. Still i plan to add more next week, almost kind of hoping the price doesn't go up!

Hi Seis, thanks for your response. My perception was they were producing 75 tonnes per month now, with the option to facilitate an increase upto 140/150 tonnes per month after the upgrade in May. They could swithch the additional capacity from copper to cobalt and vica versa. Either way a regular 50 or 75 tonnes is a very nice addition, especially if cobalt prices harden further.

Sharky- assuming 150 tonnes with an average industry production cost of $16,000 per tonne and a current price of $34,000 per tonne, thats $2.7M per month. Allowing a 20% deduction as i dont believe we produce the finished article would be $2.16 M per month. Does this meet with general concensus as its staggering, especially as you consider they are aiming at circa 3 times this in the North!

Nice to see Cobalt rising for the first time in a while. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities Hopefully a new trend. Leon did say he was expecting cobalt to rise and wanted to be ready to capitalise on the increase. I believe from my notes we are now producing circa 75 tonnes now, without affecting the copper production. But about to expand the capability to circa 140 tonnes per month, but would reduce some of the copper production if utilised. Is that everyones expectation?

That is very strange indeed Seis. Personally i am getting quite excited. The scene is being set. Copper is becoming scarcer by the minute. Huge price forecasts in the near, medium and longer term. Cobalt demand set to rocket. Its been a bit of a wait, but the Southern project is not only under way, its being tweeked to get the Northern project off the ground. Yep the Elephants are on their way. A combined 20-25K tonnes of copper & Cobalt in the very near future, with just the expansion of Roan and refurbishment of a processing facility to undertake. In the meantime Roan has an immediate target of 550 tonnes of copper pm and & 75 tonnes of cobalt pm. It feels like it has taken forever to get here, but were here and its happening. The future belongs to Jubilee and us, the trolls are living in the past and clinging on for dear life right now. With communication set to improve, promised to improve, the red metal set to flow faster and faster, profits set to jump, the trolls are doomed to return to the mirky hole they came from.

Seis, i couldny agree more and am very much looking forward to listening to the interviews again soon. The low costs to expand Roan, purchase and refurb the new copper and cobalt processing plant, seem extremely achievable. especially with the increased income being derived from Roan at full speed. Even with roan at 550 tonnes of copper and 75 tonnes of cobalt , that is a substantial new income stream. It is becoming clear copper production will pay for copper growth with maybe some of the SA earnings and PGMs will pay for PMG growth. I am much more confident there will be no need for a placing to facilitate the growth, which ties in nicely with what Ollie ( chairman ) apparently told Mr Slater. No wonder Mark Slater is holding fast, he must be eyeing up some big gains here. I certainly am and feel the next 12 months will certainly change the credibility and size of the company. So much in play now. Even the Asset value is greater than the market cap. Its not unfeasible we could be looking at 25K tonne (annualy possible) copper & cobalt production by the end of this year. I remember sable was refurbished lightning quick!

Dont want to ruin the Midweek Takeaway for you, but leon is extremely confident about Zambia. Expecting to be delivering 10k tons per annum very shortly. One other very important point highlighted, Jubilee market cap is now less than the net assett value. With such growth to come, just highlights the bargain terrority the share price finds itself in.

@ Seis & Sharky, from the analyst call, i was quite shocked at the very rough (low) costings to move the copper and the northern project to the next level. I know they were finger in the air and unprepared figures, but circa $10-$12m to expand Roan. Then $15-20M to get the refinery up and running. With sable producing circa 550 tons of copper initially ( rising to 800 ) and 75 tons of cobalt without reducing the copper capability, funding this doesnt look too daunting and easily achieved. Jubilee will then be in a very envious position of producing of producing circa 25 tons of copper and cobalt, when Roan is expanded and the refinary repurposed. Cashflow will be flying making the last stage of building a greenfield Roan2 a walk in the park. I can see all this happening very quick now. I think Leon said the government were hoping to have the refinery tax problem sorted in April, paving the way for rapid expansion. I recall they repurposed Sable very quickly and with the extension under way at Roan, this leg could be lightning quick. News flow could be rapid now. Once people see Roan working and the Northern project coming together rapidly, sentiment will change rapidly here along with the earnings. A very large silver lining!

Reflecting on what we know from today, there are a lot of positives for production and earnings:
1) Full year guidance should create circa 2,000 oz more that first year
2) Leon suggesting likely to use partnership processing facility. Likely to produce 2 months production at 2,500 oz per month. Whilst we have to pay away 40% , we still get to keep 60%.
3) chrome prices moved form circa $265 to $310, producing a much bigger credit. Outlook for chrome price steady.
4) Copper prices much higher at circa $8,500 and production expected to circa double for second half compared to first half on full year guidance.
5) Copper costs expected to drop on volume .
6) Cobalt production in the mix, compared to none in the first half.
The combined effect of all these does add up.

Indeed Sharky, that is most important. I very much like the sound of the new facility @ 40k tons of copper & 5K tons of cobalt. Sounds like this is almost across the line, just waiting for them to pay an old tax bill. Combine this with the expansion of Roan, we could be marching towards considerably elevated production of copper and cobalt without breaking the bank. I can see the cost of this is going to be greatly reduced compared to original plan, with potentially 20-25k tones of copper and cobalt in bound. With costs spread over the next 6-12 months for expansion of Roan and refit of new facility, i can see a placing will not be necessary. I know i find the positives very easily, but this may be a very fortunate stroke of luck. With 20-25k tons of metal production capability on the horizon, a second greenfield Roan should be easily afforded or financed. Seems to me, this is working out very well, whilst i know there has been a big delay, i would rather this than a placing. Buying all i can at this price.

Morning Dorf, i think the sum up the mood very well. I will certainly be going to the AGM and making my voice felt, but what is the meeting on the 20th, have i missed this? Quarterly reporting needs to be announced by RNS immediately to restore full confidence. Leon, listen to your share holders, they cannot scream any louder! All this said, are we now quick marching to circa 30k tonnes of copper and cobalt production? We know Sable is up and running, with cobalt ramping up, with a capacity of circa 14 tonnes. Roan is being upgraded to over double as Leon says. There is a binding MOU at Mopani that is capable of 17k tonnes with a cobalt circuit. Roan is being expanded at we speak ( we believe ) at fairly minimal cost compared to a new site. Mopani is binding and only needs a refit. Will Roan be capable of feeding Mopani and Sable? Can we expect circa 25 tonnes of copper, circa 5 tonnes of copper in the very near future? Expand Roan, refit Mopani? Relatively inexpensive in the grand scheme and considerably quicker. What are peoples thoughts?