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Leon has been turning and basting that duck for some time now, like a Michelin starred chef. The final product is looking a masterclass from some one at the top pf their game. The Slater find is so good its unbelievable. This is as near as dammit confirmation there is going to be no equity raise, with the imminent prospect of 40K tonnes per year of copper capability. With mass production Leon was talking about £4k cost per ton! This is the big one and no equity raise!! 40k tonnes at a margin of £4.5K per tonne is game changing. This changes everything and no equity raise!!!!!! My oh my.

Oh wow, the gateway to the North.

Totally agree NTD, but may be a little harsh on the recent history. Mainly due to a fall in PGM prices, which i feel Jubilee have moved extremely fast to start capitalising on the increased chrome prices, whilst still moving the copper projects on. Certainly nothing wrong with the cash flow after completing the new chrome plant and expanding Roan from ones back pocket. Both these projects will further enhance the cash flow now.

Happens all the time 3CB. Interesting there was a 1m buy at a similar time too and that's showing as unknown, but clearly a buy.

Seis, the way you illustrate correlation is just brilliant.

Sumo, weve been here for many years between us. Would be crazy to move on, just as the earnings are going to increase and increase again. Clearly the share price has been linked to earnings falling. That trend definitely looks to be over, with quite an increase in earnings predicted, the share price has to follow. Only natural. I feel hard evidence of rising earnings again will put the share price back on track ( 2023 audited accounts). What follows will be quite simply linked to earnings, which has caused the problems over the last two years, but will now cause the jubilation as earnings once again go on an upward trajectory.

Morning Seis, The ship is just turning, the captain cant leave the wheel yet! It would be really good to get your technical analysis, opinion on the correlation between EBITDAx10 and the market cap. It seems there is a fairly close symmetry between the two. Full year June 20 had an EDITDA of £22M and a share price in the region of 6.5-7.5. Full year 21 had an EBITDA of £52m and had a share price of around 20p. Full year 22 had an EBITDA of £37m and a share price in the region of 14-15p. EBITDA for the first half full year 23 was £11m and the share price currently sits around 7p after recovering from the low 6 range. Was the market factoring in an EBITDA likely to be less than £22m for full year 23, until Leon released details of the chrome potential. Followed by some very good analysis from the likes of Seis, highlighting the likelyhood of a substantial increase in earnings in the second half of last year. Leading to a substantial increase in earnings potential for the current year with increased earnings in chrome and copper. There appears to be a direct correlation between the two. If so, Ebitda of £25m should lift the share price to circa 9.5p with full year figures due in a few weeks. If the theory is correct the share price will likely lift to 20-30p in the current financial year depending on where EBITDA settles for full year 24 as the figures slowly unfold during the year. Full year 25 could be in a different league?

Hi NTD, great to be discussing more cheerful matters again. Reminiscent of 2 years ago. I certainly think the chrome is going to change the mood initially and the story is only going to improve. Seis' stats show the chrome earnings improving dramatically in quarters 3 and 4, compensating the loss of earnings from PGM's to the point, earnings from the second half of the year look set to be 50% higher than the first half. This haults the downward trend and starts an upward trend in earnings, which is only going to improve dramatically with the already established new chrome contract and hopefully the proposed new contract will be up and running before the end of the current year. The only caveat being chrome prices remain strong. The pure volume of chrome produced will be enormous and any further strengthening in the chrome price could have quite dramatic effects on the bottom line. In my view, this must start to decouple us from PGM's and build in pure chrome value to the share price. Initially, i dont think copper will be so supportive to the share price, because volumes still remain fairly low on the 2023 full year accounts. However, i feel copper is the game changer and is what everyone has their eye on and wont be too far away from having a big effect on the share price. Jubilee is becoming very fast moving again and i think the growth story right now is chrome and will be demonstrated in the full year 2023 accounts driving the share price on, but it wont be long before copper is driving the share price too. What a fantastic position to be in right now, with chrome earnings driving the bottom line up as we speak, copper earnings to increase, but the real winner here is the speed Jubilee can replicate. This is well and truly being proven on the chrome and PGM production and i dont think it will be long before we see a similar story with copper. Excuse the pun, but this is rinse and repeat. In my head and after closely following Jubilee, were probably 18 months behind schedule and i think a lot of that is down to lock down, but development is flying again and the growth story here is just beginning. Given a 5 year time frame from now, how big can all this become. Certainly the opportunity in Zambia is vast and im sure Jubilee will crack Zambia. This may be a lifetimes work, but would create a very substantial company. As the earnings and earning sources increase, i feel the ability to grow, will get easier and easier, especially the speed that Jubilee can replicate ( rinse and repeat ) is stunning. I am somewhat excited NTD and i believe all the promise shown over the last few years is coming to fruition. The cobalt story is yet to be added, but i dont think far away!

Seis, what really stands out to me from your workings, is that earnings are likely to be up circa 50% in the second half of the year, compared to the first first half of the year. I think earnings are very likely to be up 50% as well comparing the current year, to full last year (2023), when the new chrome contract and increased copper production are taken into account. Especially if the Eastern Limb chrome plant gets under way too! 50% increase may be not enough then. I guess there's a reasonable chance the Northern project could be underway as well. This all just makes a mockery of the current share price, way way over sold!

Seis, would love to see your current year estimates.

PGM's, still have a considerable value Seis! Looking at the quarter 4 figures of $2.6M, still $10m on an annual basis. Plus if the feed quality is still improving as per the recent chrome contract, this could be enhanced, by increased production. I recall the Take Away boys, interviewing the engineers at Inyoni and they stated PGM's produced would increase considerably with the deeper mine feed. Staring to make sense a bit now. At some stage PGM prices will improve as well. All adds up to a very bright year.

Seis, you have been busy. That has certainly lifted my spirits this morning as very much highlights the compensation factor of chrome. Although looking at the current year and the new chrome contract and expected contracts, chrome is not compensatory, but an outright winner! Factor in the new chrome and increased copper earnings and full year 24 is starting to look very attractive. The question now is how quick can they build the new chrome plant on the Eastern limb? That will be a huge boost to earnings and what possible effect can that have on full year 24? Wont need to be producing for many months to add some significant fat to the figures.

Yep, you are 100% right Seis, the market is treating JLP as a sole PGM provider. Hopefully the full year accounts will start to change that and the market may become a little more forward looking regarding the new chrome contracts and copper expansion at Roan. The market seems to be fixated on PGM's alone and totally ignoring the chrome potential that has just been unleashed and is about to be further unleashed. Or the Southern copper developments which are about to mature towards the end of October. It seems like the inmates are running the asylum at the moment, certainly on this board, but sooner, rather than later, earnings will show through and the day will be ours. They will not encourage me to sell my shares for sure!

Morning Seis. Thank you, that illustrates the chrome position very clearly and demonstrates how much better the second half of full year 23 is going to be compared with the first. I believe it is very likely, average prices were even stronger in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter for chrome. It would be very interesting to see your spreadsheet indeed. Im sure that would benefit the board considerably. I also note, that whilst chrome earnings are increasing rapidly, the PGM production was up considerably in the second half compared to the first half, which is another factor in mitigating the fall in PGM prices. Clearly the share is well and truly oversold, especially after a run of very solid RNS's and the prospect of considerably enhanced earnings for the current year, with 3 metals adding considerable value! Thanks again Seis, your work here is tireless and very well appreciated.

Neil Froneman says news on Mopani in about 3 weeks. https://www.lusakatimes.com/2023/08/31/sibanye-brings-in-chinese-partner-for-mopani-bid/

Sounds like Froneman may be winning the bid? Any thoughts here Dorf? There is certainly going to be a plethora of news here over the next couple of months. Just need the next few weeks to play out, what will be first? Mopani news? New chrome contract signed? New chrome plant underway? Roan upgraded? Quarterly production report including latest chrome addition? Full year accounts? New copper plant? Crikey, there's some serious incoming. personally i'm really looking forward to the full year results and the effect chrome has had. From memory i believe Leon said approximately 800k tonnes of chrome were on a fixed toll and 400K tonnes were subject to market prices. Can anyone remember this, correct or expand on this?

Perhaps its time to start copying everything he writes here on the Hum board?

Something here for the chartist and fundamentalist. https://invezz.com/news/2023/08/25/jubilee-metals-share-price-risk-reward-favourable/

Personally i think the bounce is going much higher and will continue for at least 24 months on the back of a positive news flow and increased earnings. Good to see this sort of exposure popping up. Onwards and upwards i feel.

Lets hope it continues to rise Dorf. I was reflecting on the progress of Jubilee last night and after being critical of Ollie, i feel there is a definite change in the company. There is no doubt Jubilee is in transition from a small cap to medium cap and i am starting to take comfort in the stewardship of Ollie. Communication is improving, expectations of production becoming clearer. The company structure is being set, with sub committees etc. There is a feel of organisation, ready for the next big expansions. The chrome expansion is huge news for Jubilee, but the Northern Project is simply game changing. I feels Ollie's influence on Leon is starting to show through and complete Leon. Perhaps the mentor that will take Leon to the next level and subsequently Jubilee. Whilst i was very happy with Colin ( after all hes made all this possible ) and it is nice to see him tweeting the Midweek Takeaway, Jubilee is embarking on a whole different level now. The growth over the next 12-24 months is going to be mesmerizing and needs a whole new approach. I am really starting to warm to Ollie and feel he is changing the company from within to give Leon the tools, ability and platform to make this gigantic leap. Which is clearly becoming just another leap on the path to glory. How big can you make this Leon? 2-3 billion tonnes of copper tailings, run of mine galore! People getting very interested again.

Looks like progress being made. https://www.business-standard.com/companies/news/vedanta-pledges-to-pay-250-mn-to-zambia-creditors-before-retaking-mine-123082301146_1.html

Just as we envisaged all those years ago Nelson. Now this is rolling and more to the point dollars are rolling in, this will grow faster and faster. The opportunity is vast and Jubilee are pole position to clean up...... literally!!!