Member Info for MikG

I'm optimistic it will. That would be a massive catalyst here. I know some on these boards were dubious on the timing of an August IPO, but I personally was disappointed it didn't happen as I felt the ATHs and risk appetite at the time trumped seasonality factors. I still think the same is true of now, with the Nasdaq still only a few percent off its ATHs. I think the revised SEC filing with the update for the inclusion of European investors might hold some of the answers to the delay. I'm hopeful it will be an exciting month on the IPO front, as well as the markman hearing on the DT case. While the former is a more recognised value driver, I think the latter is a massive wildcard. AMP is trading at a sizeable discount to its NAV, but the DT case has little to no NAV value on the books. Yet, millions upon millions have been ploughed into it. By a seasoned team and highly experienced BOD. Any remote continuation of favourable outcomes could catch the market massively off guard IMO. GL

GFD, the seller is clearly unperturbed by the news on the horizon - there is no rhyme nor reason to their dumping..only persistence. The one theme seems to be that they are much happier offloading in the low 3s than they were at the high 4s & early 5s. It is therefore my suspicion that it is the JM estate, as such behaviours do not resemble that of a seasoned investor. Either way, its neigh on impossible to sustain any sort of rise here as the seller seems to have few days off. Only truly good news on the fronts you noted should see this break the current shackles.

Completely agree on not knowing the mandate of those managing the affairs of the estate. All that is clear is that there is a persistent seller regardless of how low this goes - and given the 52 week low ask was 3p, nobody could be selling of late at a profit, so its easy to summise its the estate. It may not be. But this is savagely oversold, and anyone with a hint of market insight, you would think would be inclined to let it recover and sell at higher prices. 2.875 has been superb support all year, and buyers are still stepping in to defend it - would very much hope to see that hold and bounce again.

Of course, all this counts for little short term while there is the constant flow of 25/50/100k daily sells. Until the estate sellers realise it is them suppressing this price, and without their constant supply of stock they could be selling for a lot more, this will go nowhere. Regardless of value.

The easiest way to assess the AMP position is by its NAV. It makes me weep when I hear so often people say of AMP "but doesn't it have debt?"..that makes important to look at its net assets. The most recently published net asset value was on June 23, where the company stated: "Net Asset Value per ordinary share in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") was 3.8 pence (US $0.055)* at Period-end" * This was based on a forex rate of 1.4746. If we apply today's Cable rate of 1.32, that becomes: 4.17pence ** This was based on a MTFB price: "At the end of the year, the share price was 42.75 pence." MTFB is currently 49p (6.25p/15% higher). 6.25p on 43,248,291 shares is worth an extra £2.7m on the NAV. Therefore, NAV in current dollar terms is 4.17p. There has been a 15% uplift in MTFB's price, but until recently that had been as high as 50%+. It owns (fully converted per MTFB's SEC filing) 35% of MTFB prior to IPO, and will be 25% after IPO. Whilst additional debt has been assumed, this will initially be countered by the MTFB appreciation, and ultimately there will be news on the legal case that is draining the funds and facilitating the loan drawn downs. The final results stated that the case trial will begin in Q3 2016. Given a BOD of this calibre deemed this case to be worthy of such vast & critical funds, combined with the favourable rulings to date, you'd have to think the risk/rewards are favourable for a positive outcome. Corrections or criticisms to any of the above welcome.

I agree - selling at 52 week lows is irrational given there has been no significant change in uncertainty and the fall in price from 5 to 3 more than reflects the MTFB IPO delay news. MTFB holding at 30%+ off its 52 week lows, AMP sat at its 52 week lows, there is clear value in this share again at this price.

7.4% down. FFS this share is a joke

Jim, I hope your optimism prevails, but the SP action is atrocious. Amp seems to fall greater than motif, yet when mtfb did 8/9% yesterday, amp did 3%. Holding this for a rebound and a turnaround in motifs fortunes are being completely unrewarded.

C. 30% drop and no next day bounce, more declines. V poor - expect now the bid is dropping the seller will up their offloading. Seems to have a penchant for dumping more the lower the price..

It's been an odd session here. Like you say, not much volume, which makes this a weak drop in my mind...but it seems more of the volume & larger round number offloads have picked up in pace the lower the price has gone. AIM is irrational at the best of times, but some of the trade patterns have always made me think there is a naive larger seller - I thought it on the way up too, but others have disagreed - but I am not so certain. Regardless, I think many will soon realise that this drop has been overdone, and here & MTFB will begin their ascent back up towards yesterdays levels - particularly if the IPO newsflow resumes with a positive outcome. Uncertainty always a big factor in this market.

Can't believe quite how badly this has been whacked today. Not a good day at all

Surprised to see AMP have been selling down some of its KMK holidings. Any thoughts on this? Wonder if we will get an RNS here notifying us..

Agreed.. Dont see any of the stake being sold any time soon. The guys at the helm have been very open in the past about their belief in the potential of Motif, and how out of sync the valuation is with NASDAQ peers. They have also shown me that they are in the upper echelons of AIM management, such as earlier in the year when biopharma sector pressures depressed Motif (and accordingly, AMPs) share prices, they avoided going to the markets for heavily dilutive funding, but instead utilised the loan facility. With the covertibles considered as well, they have a very exciting stake.

I like that quote. The carrying value here is far in excess of the liabilities, giving the NAV of $5.5p at the last year end results. Significantly since that date the exchange rate has dropped from c$1.50 at year end to nearer $1.30 now, and most crucially, that NAV was based on a closing Motif price of 42.5p. The Amphion NAV would be significantly higher based on the uplift in the MTFB share price, coupled with the potential MTFB has for further uplift, making this a very attractive proposition at this share price.

+17% now. AMP typically more elastic and responsive than MTFB, off a far smaller MCAP, so has plenty more rising to go.

Absolutely. Soon people will cotton onto this, but its nice being the early ones. Not only the disclosed holding, then there is the convertibles, which makes this massively undervalued on its MTFB stake, plus a free carry on some other good looking partner co's. These sellers will only provide the liquidity for them to take it up, as it has been run down on so little in the past 12m...so a couple sells is good to see.

Nice buy - I've had NT to buy since 8.02, which must have killed the vol if others had the same. Finally they tick it up!

Make that now 9% down on 100k sales! This share is v hard work. It doesn't even need the seller to be out to fall!

Hey GFD. There's a definite hesitancy on the bid & suspect it may be related to the JM estate. It's a dull offload, but often stagnates any hint of price movement & typically means a lot of gains from a move are not held. I was of the opinion that the 2 x 326,539 trades were a worked rollover given the proximity & size, which made it by my reckoning around 100k of sells for 6% lost, but WTFDIK. I'm sure once MTFB does its thing, or DT delivers us some tangible news, all this will be trivial. I hope :) GL

There's a good chance as the potential and value is certainly there. It just has issues with dropping on nothing. Today for example, it has taken 100k net sells to whop off 6%. Clever use of the rollover perhaps to disguise the excessive drop, but it feels like as there is a drip seller who go at most bid increases, the MMs offer very little on the bid side. A shrewder seller would surely wait for the inevitable MTFB re-rate & use that momentum and price increase to offload into, rather than stifle every move as it stands now.