Docmin HC21 Jun 2018 04:58
Very good well explained laymans post, well done. We should have more of them. It's appreciated.
However I am just not as positive as some of you are at this stage. I do have my concerns from what went on during the last well and what didn't happen. IMO the constant messing around with choke size concerned me last year, as we know choking/cycling can be detrimental. It comes in slugs and if a slug hits the choke it reverberates and takes up to the next void which is downhole going south. Risk reward and Daves team should be well aware of this. If I continually read choke changes hourly then it's done for me.
They will get traces of oil for ages, the pore throats will have all sorts of emulsions and the capillaries will take effect. Only the team know true rock properties and will know if it will flow or not at this stage or next day or 2 imo. This is a tough one especially at such low rates, so the natural rock is tight. It's ok to say its fine to say it fracd well but if the oil can't get to the fissures then it's a tough call.
Anyway going off SP what an unexpected ride. For me it enforces the real risks/rewards of investing in a highly volatile stock and where top 20 are MM's.
We have 2 options hold no matter what and wait for official news failed or success. Then wait another 12 months for all 3D, Yukon and more wells in 19 to get a decent reward. Maybe buy more and average down till next development to begin. Many will sell when announcements are made in future, lol, can't remember SP ever going up after an announcement lol.. Joking!!!! Seems that way though. Joy of a spec stock.
Or do as many are doing and trade the ass out of this stock and hope it doesn't hit success then be left with pants down chasing a SP to get back in or if fails made a good profit then buy in at much lower price with all those profits, ready for new news during the year if well fails. Simple isn't it guys. Anyway no stress from me will endure the journey.
One think to remember is the more wells they do the more they learn!!!! GLTA.