RE: 6 Million Traded28 Jul 2018 06:03
Guzzler 6p in Q1 is a fair question.
I suppose the question is what will it take to get 6p and more in Q1
The activity in Q1 appears to be centered around the maximum of 3 conventional drills. Two on Ice wine and one at the Nanshunk/ Horseshoe. If all tree do confirm commercial recoverable Conventional High grade API. Then 6p will I believe be a distant memory.
If we get one Icewine conventional drill and it is good then the value of the SP will be determined by the BE and amount of recoverable oil.
The thought at this time is they are drilling a stacked play. We do not haven the 3d released yet so we are not sure the size of the target. I am pretty sure that the sP will not rocket on data, Icewine has yet to establish a success story, outside of being promising.
The indications from the January presentation suggests that the stacked target may be in excess of 200mb, no BE at this time.
Even we got the low ball Oil search price given to Armstrong = over $600m. Should that eventuate that is where the 6p + price may come from. Equally it could be nothing.
I remember DW talking about the value of Alpha in its earliest days and sticking a post hole in to prove it up. Then POO was close to its cyclical low, still looking at $5pb as the expected API was regarded to be at a high level. Proximity to the Dalton and Taps supporting that thought. One thing for sure is that HRZ is going to take funding we do not have, yet may get with a decent conventional resource being proven.
Once the data room door has been unlocked and the scope of the potential prizes for the conventional are released, we will get our answers.