Member Info for MikeGP

4. GSA

5. Sidi news

.. and at the end of the week the Moroccan Energy Conference--

Day2 -7th Feb-09:50 Presentation: The Tendrara licence: Sound Energy’s recent significant gas discovery

.. that some of this rise may also be down to the fact that a few people have now had the chance to look at the '18 numbers as per the trading statement and started to appreciate the turnaround over the past 18months.

2019 will be as good in not better, without any of the Airport contracts that we have floating around at the moment. There will be those who say that we only had a good year in 2018 because of the large 'one-off' Tech Contract... and that clearly helped the sales revenue substantially.

BUT,.. because of the delay in the delivery of the final phase,.. 45% of that contract value has been deferred in to this years accounts,.. PLUS,.. the new acquisition; we will benefit from a full years sales revenues from the acquisition in the 2019 accounts,.. not just 3 months,.... so that in itself could improve numbers by circa£1.5M+/annum. We were also told that the Managed Services Div,.. dealing with SL,.. started with a record PAX in January. Also bodes well.

IF we look at the M/E and African Contracts; The M/e and the ancillary contract will add circa £24M/annum .... and I would expect the African Contract to generate at least as much as SL ( given this has also been described as transformation".... so maybe £3-5M?

We could be looking at annual sales revenue of circa £35M a year, if all of the ducks line up. Group margins were, I think, last quoted as something like 36%(?)... or circa £12m/annum..... put that on an easy P/E of 10 and we are close to £1/share. Given the long term nature of the large contract and the potential for natural growth ( plus the phase 2 muted),.. then it would be easy to argue that a higher P/E would be appropriate.

Is that enough ramping!??

For sure,.. the day the first of the two signed contracts get the green light will be mighty exciting on here.

...IMHO. From the last RNS and regarding the second contract:

" Contracts have been drafted and, -------at the request of the client, Westminster have signed,----------- and we await counter signature from the government."

It's the 'at the request of the client.."... bit,.... almost as if they are saying,.. no need for another meeting to go through an "official' signing ceremony,... sounds more like,.. you sign it,... and get and get it back to us to do our bit..... and we are off.

So, following on from dhc's comment,... IMHO,.. the second contract really could land (pardon the pun) at any moment?

Another line,.. which arguably they needn't have included was"

"We have also made material advances with a number of other airport prospects, which have been in discussion for some time. "

I get the feeling that we have many irons in many fires at the moment and as somebody else said,... it could be a case of several buses all turning up at once. Fingers crossed. At least we are a little wiser on the form of the SPV now, just what that will have, if any, in our ME Contract will surely become clear over the next few weeks.

Only 130M shares in issue and a few warrants,... this moves very quickly as we all know given the large amount of shares in relatively few holders and hands,.... and very 'sticky' hands at that.

Best.

https://www.dw.com/en/instex-europe-sets-up-transactions-channel-with-iran/a-47303580

We are lucky he didn't say 'soon'... that could have been 2025+!

i know the feeling!!

But I think the recent RNS,..confirming FEED complete on the transport Pipe should allow them to complete the GSA? I seem to recall ( could be mistaken)... that they needed that in order to quantify costs etc., confirm the finance element of the works and then could complete the GSA. Which would make sense... you'd surely need to know how much the pipeline was going to cost you to build before you could work out how much you need to charge for the carriage of the gas?

I'm hopeful, given the timeline in the recent presentation that the GSA is imminent. This week or next.

Fingers crossed,.... and pretty much everything else crossed too!

Best

GSA anyone?

Understood.

Txs.

Aiming,.... so what are you saying...IG go in to the market to buy shares to cover long positions?

ie if you have a long position of say £1K/pt.... each penny the share rises,.. they lose £1K,... in order to cover that they would need to buy circa 10,000 shares at the current sp if circa 10p? I can see the theory,... but if it worked like that we should just all take out massive long positions,... IG would have to buy to cover these positions as per your theory (?),.... the sp would rise because of the back of the buying pressure and we would be making loads on money on our spread bets.... ( not to mention our existing holdings),

It can't work like that else it would be too easy!!

https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/draft-eu-document-leaked-on-how-to-circumvent-us-sanctions-on-iran-1.819102

These guys are reporting that the Italians are now on side and that the draft document has been leaked to Bloomberg.

Looks like we are in the end game for the spv.

Oops... sorry,.. not 33% of big tech contract to be booked in 2019 accounts,..it is actually 45%.

So roughly half in 2018 and half in 2019. With the added £1.5M revenue for the acquisition..... and increasing PAX at SL,.. looks like 2019 sales revenue is already set-up to beat 2018,... without any of the MoU's, or either of the signed long term airport contracts coming to fruition.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/213500/airport-traffic-gives-westminster-a-strong-tailwind-in-2018-213500.html

Airport traffic gives Westminster a strong tailwind in 2018
Share
09:02 29 Jan 2019
Revenues for 2018 will be around £7.2mln or 33% higher
airport check-in
Airport screening revenues are climbing
A ‘particularly strong’ second half has boosted Westminster Group PLC’s (LON:WSG) year-on-year revenues by 33%.

The security group added 2019 had also started strongly with record numbers passing through its West Africa airport operations in January.

Westminster receives a fee from airlines for passengers flying in and out.

Managed Services and Technology divisions continue to have a healthy and active enquiry bank and are delivering on expectations.

Recent manned guard acquisition Keyguards should also add £1.5mln of recurring revenue each year, it added.

Revenues for 2018 will be around £7.2mln (£5.4mln), which excludes US$2m (£1.6m) from a US$4.5m (£3.6m) vehicle screening contract within the Middle East.

Westminster has received payment but shipment is now expected next month and £1.6mln of revenue booked for the first quarter along with £176,000 of commissioning works.

An underlying profit [EBITDA] in 2018 is still possible, the group said, but depends on adjustments for the Keyguard acquisition and collection of an outstanding long-term debt.

Westminster added it still working with its customer to get work started on an airport security contract in Iran signed in May but that was put on hold when the US unilaterally pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

No news was forthcoming on a second airport screening contract in Africa that Westminster signed in December but is waiting for government sign-off.

“We are pleased with our 2018 results and most encouraged with the strong start to 2019 both in terms of our operations and in the progression of our various large-scale opportunities,” said the statement.”

Foxy,..

A third of the income for the 'big' tech contract has been carried over in to this years account,...( with the expenditure booked in the 2018's accounts).... and we will have circa new revenue for £1.5M the recent acquisition,.. combined with what will hopefully be another PAX increase in SL.

IMHO,.. not quite the doom and gloom you are predicting.

Gibbo,... wait,.. that's only a draught signature! :-)

What don't you like?

Record numbers in January 19 for PAX in SL.

Second Contract finalised and signed... now just awaiting signature ( at Governmental level) by the other party?

New acquisition integrated in to main HQ and cash flow positive already,... with estimated £1.5M sales for 2019? ( purchased for max £200K)

Group revenues up by 33%, even with £1.8M of the contract still to be booked in Q1 2019

Even with the deferred revenue, possibly still EBITDA positive, ( .. else would have shown a pre-tax profit of circa £1.6M)

Cash in Dec 18 of £0.7M, after allowing for supply costs payments for Tech contract paid,... hence remaining £1.6M, will go to our bottom line.... so could read £2.3M.

Strengthened Board, with high level experience of dealings at international and governmental levels

Nice work Eskers.

.. the FEED for the pipeline is complete. Which means that they can, or have now identified and quantified the costs associated with those works,... which means that they can press on with the finalising the GSA.

I think that could drop at any moment, certainly before the Moroccan Energy conference.

Joe,... my take on the res,.. is that they won't be drilling TE-11,....

If it's a Paleo play, which they have said t is,.. and they have selected the location,..which theybhave said they have done,... then why wait to prepare the base?The rig is sitting there ready to go.

They say they won't start the base until after the TE-10 results,.. I think that is because if the results are good,.... then the LE will be happening.... and there will be no TE-11,.. at least not by us,... or perhaps,.... it will be us,. and the suitor. Maybe we sell and then Farm-in to them ... so that we agree enjoy a little of the upside,... or even part of the payment is shares in the suitor, ( for the same reason)... perhaps that is JP's 'clever' idea???

Just my thoughts.

Best

..on the Farm-out,. surely we should get some news soon?

I know that they put this on the back burner,... but the process was started in June last year and we have had no substantive updates of any sort. I believe that they said something like they 'were short-listing" the parties who had shown interest during one of the Fire Side Chats?

Is that where we are in the process? The low side volume estimates are circa 6tcf ( from memory),.. not insignificant, given where we are at the moment, with only 0,.63tcf 'in the bag'.

Any thoughts?

Thanks Mark.