Member Info for MikeGP

Wow David... that's amazing insight,.... -- thank you for that----- I don't remember meeting you in Banbury when the company was warded the Queens's Award for Enterprise... maybe you were just hiding under a rock.

Aiming h,

Totally agree on all counts.

Best.

... think it is worth scrolling back to the notes taken by the investors on the broker presentations.

I few key issues:

It will take a few years to roll out all of WSG's services across the 5 airports,... it's not all going to happen at once.

Part of the roll out willl be financed via the revenue received.. and the rate of roll out will not affect the 10$m.annum....

WSG has covered off a lot of the 'contract' ending early scenarios, in quite a comprehensive' way...

Debt finance, if structured sensibly, is much better than equity finance,... and PF and MH have already said that is the way that they would like got go,... and that they have several offers on the table....

Despite the fact that they are going to fund initial set up from existing funding I doubt that it will be much longer before we hear from WSG as to finance. I believe PF is out there now and MH is going out at the end of the month.

SL is at record numbers.... and admin overheads have been reduced, by a significant amount.

If the CFO is going out I can think of two basic scenarios,--- he's going out to sign off on days in respect of staffing, office es etc,... in which case I imagine he would like to have the finance agreement in his pocket.... or he's going out to confirm final costs etc., in order that he can come back and sign off on the finance facility? So either way.. it will be what it will be.

The contract is signed,.. it's happening,... and we'll all be a lot wiser in just a few weeks.

Global Airport investment is estimated to reach USD 2,404 billion in 2040 from USD 200 billion in 2021, at a CAGR of 14.4%.

https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2024/2/16/2830751/0/en/Global-Airport-investment-is-estimated-to-reach-USD-2-404-billion-in-2040-from-USD-200-billion-in-2021-at-a-CAGR-of-14-4.html

...let's hope that one of the other MSC's that are close to completing are focussed on the Middle East aviation sector,.. which is booming.

https://www.agbi.com/analysis/aviation/2024/05/middle-east-aviation-growth-rises/

Have a fab week-end all.. Dom hen did a 0.05p.. entry,...but I was losing the will to live and let it go,... apologies Daffy... but I have a life!

1.75p Dom hen

2.0p StephenFryUp

2.2p Trout1

2.6p linton

2.7p Aiming High

3.1p HotairHopefully-HAH

3.3p NicetoMichu

3.5p DaffyPicker..

3.7p HoofHeartedAgain-HHA

4.0p MikeGP

4.0p Lowrisktrader-PS

4.1p MasterBaker

4.2p Ian.B

4.3p Malcolm

2.0p StephenFryUp

2.2p Trout1

2.7p Aiming High

3.1p HotairHopefully-HAH

3.3p NicetoMichu

3.5p DaffyPicker..

3.7p HoofHeartedAgain-HHA

4.0p MikeGP

4.0p Lowrisktrader-PS

4.1p MasterBaker

4.2p Ian.B

4.3p Malcolm

Daffy,.... O.1 increments.. so 3.5 or 3.6!

Should have said.. close of play Friday to get involved..?

--

Closing price ( Mid).. on Friday 31st May. No prizes,.. no charity donations,.. just 'bragging' rights for then next month. If you fancy having a go, add your punt,..(say 0.1 incrementations to keep it sensible)... cut and re-paste for the next guy/gal.

___

4.0p MikeGP

4.1p MasterBaker

4.2p Ian.B

4.3p Malcolm

... is still miserable. Anybody fancy some silly fun?

Closing price ( Mid).. on Friday 31st May. No prizes,.. no charity donations,.. just 'bragging' rights for then next month. If you fancy having a go, add your punt,..(say 0.1 incrementations to keep it sensible)... cut and re-paste for the next guy/gal.

4.0p MikeGP

NtM,

Every day that goes by is a day closer to July and DRC revenue. 8 -10 weeks?.... 40-45 trading days. Bring it on.

2 weeks from the broker presentations, on which a few of us LTH's sat in...---from the conversations with PF and MH, I got the impression that finance decision would be about 3/4 weeks away.... so by my reckoning... that is now in the next couple of weeks.

Goin got be very interesting few weeks. SL going well.... new airlines with additional flights and we haven['t even started at DRC and we have airlines introducing and/or increasing flights. ( Ethiopian and Qatar Airways).

Looking forward to seeing the sp at the end of the year.

It would appear that DRC's Congo Airlines have had a difficult time of it over the past years however they are looking to acquiring three A320's to reopen five African regional routes.

"Congo Airways (8Z, Kinshasa N'Djili) is aiming for significant recovery and expansion in 2024, including rebuilding its fleet with one B777 for intercontinental flights to the United Arab Emirates and Europe and acquiring three A320s to reopen five African regional routes, according to CEO José Lueya Dubier.

During a news conference on March 7 carried by Congo Emergent TV, Dubier disclosed that the national carrier was negotiating for a B777 for the long-haul flights and three A320-200s. These acquisitions would be financed through an unnamed Congolese bank."

"Meanwhile, Dubier said that targeted regional destinations for expansion include Douala (Cameroon), Lagos (Nigeria), Dakar Blaise Diagne International (Senegal), Bamako (Mali), and South Africa. Intercontinentally, the focus is on Dubai International.

Negotiations are also underway with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) to obtain necessary Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation by mid-2024, he said. "Why not make the inaugural flight to Brussels on June 30, 2024," he suggested. The European Commission continues to ban all carriers certified by the DRC's civil aviation authority (Autorité de l'aviation civile - AAC) for allegedly failing to adhere to the applicable international safety standards.

And we know that part of the WG remit is to help/training and infrastructure to deal with this...

However, Dubier appeared optimistic about Congo Airways' prospects after it achieved more than 65% compliance with International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) standards during a Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) Continuous Monitoring Approach (CMA) conducted in mid-2023. He added that Congo Airways had also passed the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) in the last three years."

https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/138487-drcs-congo-airways-eyes-fleet-route-growth-ceo

Addis Ababa, February 23, 2024

Ethiopian Airlines, the largest network operator in Africa, is pleased to announce a launch of a thrice weekly passenger services to Freetown, Sierra Leone via Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso starting from 31st of May 2024. This new route marks yet another milestone in the airline's extensive network expansion endeavor, connecting more African countries and providing travelers with convenient and efficient travel options.

The new thrice weekly services to Freetown will be operated using the most modern and eco-friendly Boeing 787-800 aircraft, offering passengers a comfortable and enjoyable flight experience. The B787 is equipped with state-of-the-art amenities, including spacious seats, personal entertainment systems, and onboard Wi-Fi, ensuring a pleasant journey for all passengers.

https://corporate.ethiopianairlines.com/Press-release-open-page/ethiopian-airlines-to-launch-passenger-services-to-freetown-discover-freetown-with-ethiopian-new-service-via-ouagadougou#:~:text=Ethiopian%20Airlines%2C%20the%20largest%20network,31st%20of%20May%202024.

3no x week= say 150flights annum x say 100 passenger/flight (?)--- at $40/pass= $0.6M revenue

Ian.

Agreed. The sentiment behind Rifle's pots is understood,... we LTH's have been here before.

BUT,.. we know the SL airport model works, it's attractive for the in-country Govt/Authorities,... as they have to little money,.. it's good for us as we get paid by the air carriers, in $'s, via IATA.

WSG have made the contract very tight covering off a number of 'difficul situation' scenarios. ie the early termination penalty, the third party out of country try arbitration, the return of kit etc., all good, solid moves.

As to funding. PF confirmed that initial funding would be from cash at hand,.. he stressed that they had a number of debt finance offers on the table already and he confirmed that the roll out of the five airports will take 18-24months,. so part of the funding will come from cashflow from the DRC contract, which will commence in July and will be circa a$10M in the first year regardless on the speed of roll-out.

As to the SP..... patience.

...not sure anyone has ever described as being part of the holy trinity!!! But I'll take it!

Dr M.... I was the other PI on that call!

Best, M

Some one on another board has just pointed out that we are paid in $'s the airlines,.. hence why would inflation in DRC affect our sales revenue. Which is a fair point.,..... and could be right.

However... whilst we are being paid in US $'s... we will be paying for services and staff in local currency?-- 400 odd staff across the five airports? Could EWSG have linked the costs associated with these elements of the contract to local inflation in DRC?... it would make sense to do that, especially when inflation is so high over a sustained period?

I guess time will tell.

DrM...

Not necessarily,... as I understand it from the Investor cal it grows in line with inflation, reviewed annually. Perhaps someone else on the call9s0 can confirm if I have got that right. I certainly asked the question about whether there was a review period within the contract to renegotiate the fees, and PF replied, there was an annual review. My recollection is that he said words to the effect that worst case situation it would rise with inflation. But I didn't record the call so I can't double check.

So if I have it right, the rate of increase will depend upon what the inflation figure is. The government target is 7%, refer to link below.

The average inflation over the past 10years to 2022 was 10%. It is forecast to fall to 6.4% in 2024.

It just shows how the contract could grow substantially, just on the inflation fluctuations.

The government target is 7%.

https://www.afdb.org/en/countries-central-africa-democratic-republic-congo/democratic-republic-congo-economic-outlook

https://ycharts.com/indicators/democratic_republic_of_the_congo_inflation_rate_outlook_end_of_period_consumer_prices

Dr M,...

Inflation linked revenues....

Yes... security fees will reviewed annually,.. and lowest rate of increase will be in line with inflation.

Q: Anyone hazard to guess average inflation rate in DRC over past 10 years?---

A= 10%

So, if inflation cine on that trajectory, and you compound that up,. the contract near double to $20M/annum ( paid in US dollars via IATA.) in circa 6-7yrs. That is if we do noting!--- no growth in passenger numbers,... no additional domestic passengers, no freight, no extension of the contract to include additional airports.... etc., ( they have over 30-ish)

Note: --- I'm sure PF said the return or payment for the kit we install, which will be owned by WSG,... happens if the contract is terminated at the ned of the first 10yr contract period,..ie making it highly Riley that they will extend to the 15yrs...

You mean the Ferry that never carried one fee paying customer,.... in theory great idea,.. in practice a disaster.

Please don't remind us of that... I was having a happy Thursday,.. sun shining,.... work sorted,... and heading out for a beer with my brother,.... now I'm thinking Sierra Queen!