Member Info for MikeGP

........ nor me,,,,, as it would remind me too much of the good old bad old days ..... please post.... " I wouldn't want to be out of this one at the week-end'.

I haven't read that for a while and I'm feeling nostalgic.

Reece,.... FYI ...HMG website suggest that the UK-Africa Investment Summit to be held in London have been delayed and date will be pushed back due to other international commitments etc.,

That is not the visit that WSG are arranging for their visit to DRC.

oppps...! apologies,... sm,... envoy to dominican republic,.....! not dominican republic of congo! my bad. good for him though,... much better ****tails.

PUBLISHED 8TH FEB---- no date mentioned for visit!

The Prime Minister has today made two new appointments to his Trade Envoy programme.

The appointments are:

Tom Hunt MP to Bangladesh

Stephen Metcalfe MP to Dominican Republic, Panama and Costa Rica

Trade Envoys support the UK economy by supporting British businesses to take advantage of the opportunities arising from the UK’s global trade agenda. They champion Global Britain and promote the UK as a destination of choice for inward investment across all regions of the UK, helping to level up the country.

The new appointments will extend the total number of Trade Envoys to 37 parliamentarians, covering 67 markets.

The Trade Envoys will work with the Department for Business and Trade’s global network to strengthen the UK’s trade and investment relationships within their appointed markets and break down barriers to doing business for UK firms.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-ministers-trade-envoy-programme-appointments--5

I've found the breakdown of passenger travel International and domestic for 2014 and I have applied the airport taxes that we also have confirmed to that year. It's quite interesting and far more lucrative than I had initially imagined as I was struggling to work out how WSG had stated that the contract was worth $6M/annum from the outset.

So,.... DEPARTURE... volumes, on which WSG revenues are based...

2014 figures. for whole of DRC, were as follows:

International= 244,000. x $55 = $13.4M

Domestic= 144,000 x $10= $1.4M

TOTAL = $14.8M

The top 4 airports carry the vast majority of passengers and I would estimate that a MINIMUM of 65% would be using what we believe will be WSG serviced airports, 65% of the $14.8M departure tax would be collected by the managed services provided by WSG = $8.9M.

Clearly we do not know what proportion of the departure taxes will be due to WSG and the DRC were using some of these taxes for investing in new infrastructure. IF we ASSUME that they would collect circa 50% of the over all revenue, that would equate to $4.8M..... or £4M ( at $1.2/£1)..... or 12p/share ( with 330m shares and at P/E of 10)

Arguably, if the contract is 20years, a very long term,... you could argue a higher p/e?

https://dlca.logcluster.org/print-preview/4402

I'm tempted to hire a private plane, nip up to Oxford,.. and fly them over myself!!

So,.. quick bit of research this morning showed a high of circa 800,000k pax across all important, of which there are 4 international airport, the high being in 2012. This fluctuates a lot but plunged to a low of 80,000 in 2020 at start of covid period. This started to recover and Was up to 400,000 in 2021

I can't find any further detail after that, but would imagine that growth has continued.

The departure airport tax as at 2022, was $55 ( international flights).. and $10 ( domestic). Clearly we don't what proportion of that would be due to WSG.

https://drcprecop27.medd.gouv.cd/en/infos.php

Steven,....

Dr M.... is quoting the recent Inerims,....--- historically the Serviced managed contracts have a high operating margin.... and this fluctuates between circa 50+ and 60+%---- extract from recent interims below.

"The Group generated a continuing gross profit of £1.6 million (H1 2023: £2.2 million; H2 2022: £2.9 million) which equates to a gross margin of 57% (H1 2023: 64%; H2 2022 56%). The increase in high margin services sales in H1 2023 changed the margin mix which reverted to a more normal mix in H2 2023."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WSG/interim-results-xlz7z1q0rg4v4au.html

Dr M,...

Interesting. You made me go back through the RNS's.....to find the original. First thing to note... is that its mentions a minimum 20yr contract..... NOT... a 10yr contract that we have been quoting. And you are quite right... they state circa $6M revenues in first 12months... with scope to increase as volume builds.--- Let's hope those are the numbers.

'This latest multi-million USD per annum managed services contract was secured after many months of negotiation and delays caused by COVID travel restrictions. The contract, which is for an initial period of 20 years, with a 5-year renewal thereafter, is to provide comprehensive ground security operations, initially at 4 international airports and 1 national airport in the DRC. Westminster is to provide its expertise in assisting the authorities to develop and maintain world-class airport security services, opening up the potential for growth in air traffic by attracting new international carriers and commercial enterprises to the region.

___________________

The contract is based on Westminster's managed services model successfully deployed elsewhere in Africa. Revenues will be driven by embarking passenger numbers using the airports and funded by a per passenger fee denominated in USD, collected through the ticketing system and payable directly to Westminster by the airlines or a suitable collection agency such as the International Air Transport Association ('IATA'). Whilst air travel remains impacted by COVID, with passenger numbers estimated to be currently around 50% of normal levels and full recovery not expected until 2023, the contract is still expected to generate revenues in excess of $6m in the first twelve months of operation with proportional growth in revenues and margins as passenger numbers recover to normal levels. In addition, there is an opportunity under the contract for further revenues from cargo screening operations."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WSG/min-20-year-5-airport-security-contract-in-africa-ao7eeuae6hkxqle.html

reece,

i've just done a *** packet calc which suggests that the drc contract might be worth circa 4p on the sp.

if we assume the same model as they operate in sl.

400,000 pax/annum last available figures that i have been able to find,.( i posted the link a few posts back)... across 30-ish airports many of which are freight only. again, if we assume that the security screening managed services will target the largest 5 airports we should be looking at circa 66% of pax, circa 275,000.

of which,.... wsg would be getting fees ( paid by the airline companies) for each departure scan;

275,000 x 50% ( departure)= 137,500 pax at say $25 ( believed to be sl figure)= $3.44m revenue

$3.44m x operating profit, circa 50% ( as per trading statement) = $1.78m/annum

$1.78m /330m shares. = $0.005 eps ....

p/e ratio,... say 10..... = circa $0.05p share

$1.2=£1....=== circa 4p share?

all up for debate!?

as rifle says,... we need confirmation of funding for installations etc.,-- with a signed contract and upfront payment i wouldn't see that as an issue.

... sp value on the ASSUMPTION,... that the DRC contract would generate circa $10M/annum for 10yrs, at circa 50% profit?

____

Fundamentals,... as of today as indicated on this LSE site.

Shares in Issue 330.51m

Market Cap. £5.95m

Market Size 30,000

PE Ratio 49.18033

Earnings 0.0366

Dividend 0.00

Yield 0.00%

"In 2021, number of air passengers carried for Democratic Republic of the Congo was 392,102.2. Though Democratic Republic of the Congo number of air passengers carried fluctuated substantially in recent years, it tended to increase through 1988 - 2021 period ending at 392,102.2 in 2021."

https://knoema.com/atlas/Democratic-Republic-of-the-Congo/Number-of-air-passengers-carried

J.

Don't think the £'s have ever been published nor are they likely to be put out in to the public domain,.. and certainly not until the Contract is signed.

JImzi,....it's all alcohol free beer and fruit BVapes nowadays!!! Get with the programme!--- good to see you still hear...

Three putt,.... very true.

However, the following is the most positive message that we have heard from WSG regarding the delayed ratification of the contract in a long term... April starts next week,..... and the African summit, hosted in London, is on the 23/24th. Perhaps that isn't a co-incidence?

I'm sure Rushi would love to announce a new 10 years contract to help upgrade the DRC's top 5 airports as a demonstration of the UK's ties with the African Nations,...

____

'Foremost amongst these is our project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for which I am delighted to announce that the long-awaited ratification process is currently being completed, being the final part of the formal procurement procedure for the now 10+ year contract signed in June 2021 for security services to 5 airports in the Democratic Republic of the Congo ('DRC'), Central Africa. Arrangements are now being made for a senior Westminster team to travel to the DRC with a UK Government Trade delegation in April to hopefully finalise matters and to prepare for commencement of the project. We expect to make a further announcement after that visit.'

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/WSG/interim-results-xlz7z1q0rg4v4au.html

..... UK to host African Investment Summit in April 2024

The Prime Minister will host a UK-African Investment Summit in London on 23 to 24 April 2024.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-host-african-investment-summit-in-april-2024

_______

Good networking opportunities I would imagine.

Reece,... love the optimism.

PF really needs to deliver on two long term service contracts this year if he is going to build any real sustainable momentum in the share price..... if he can secure DRC in April that will be a good start.

It sounds as if the other training and security businesses are performing in line with or above budget which is also encouraging ....... as is the performance at Freetown Airport. The relationship with SUMMA appears to be positive,... and there is huge scope for the volume through the Airport to increase, given the new terminal, which has capacity of circa 1m passengers/annum as opposed to the old facilities of circa 200K/annum.

.... you beat me to it. I saw that too. Talk about bullish.

"Whilst the Company can choose to enact the sale of these shares at any time, it has not done so and there is no reason nor pressure to do so until the Company's share price has reached a target price of 26p. The Company believes that with imminent and expected new long-term contracts to be gained over the next 24 months the target price or higher can be achieved in due course at which time the shares can be sold for the benefit of the Company. "

Sadly Peter has 'form',... on the ... 'next year will be transformational'... front but he knows what is in the pipeline. One step at a time,.... they are off to DRC with a UK Government delegation with the intention ton sign off on the DRC contract,... this is non the next 4 to 5 weeks. I guess the proof will be in then pudding,.. or .. errr... the signing. Let's get that done and dusted and then maybe the SP will turn a corner and be on the up. Fingers crossed.

Agreed.

..and the roll out for compliance will be a slow burn, as venues and businesses will be given time to become compliant,... but it is clearly an opportunity for a new revenue stream,.. and their existing contracts with the Palace of Westminster,.. Tower of London,... will stand them in good stead ....---- the maintenance, monitoring and supply of equipment is likely to lead to on-going contracts and regardless of the quantum,..repeat business via service contracts is key to WSG growing the business over the medium term,... as we know the tech contracts can be lucrative,.. but are 'lumpy'... and difficult to predict.

Results for last year either tomorrow or Thursday.

Https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65c0dcd3c4319100141a456e/05.02.24_Martyn_s_Law_Standard_Tier_Consultation_.pdf

This identifies the enhanced security provisions that will need to be addressed by venues and businesses which will be affected by the new Martyn's law legislation which is due to come in to force this year-- ( I believe the final public consultation period ended on March 18th)...

Opportunities for WSG:

Key provisions and recommendations

1. Mandatory security assessments

One of the central elements of Martyn's Law is the requirement for venue operators to conduct and regularly update security assessments. These assessments are designed to identify vulnerabilities and address them to minimise the risk of attacks. The Home Office has created a new online platform which provides guidance on the Protect Duty [HO Protect Duty].

2. Counter-terrorism training

Venue staff should receive proper training in identifying suspicious activity and responding to threats. This includes recognising potential indicators of terrorist planning or radicalisation. This is already a requirement for those licensed under the Security Industry Authority.

3. Bag searches and metal detectors

These two practical examples of security measures are what enhanced duty premises will be expected to undertake as part of achieving what is reasonably practicable when tackling the reduction in risk of acts of terrorism occurring at a premises, or reducing the level of harm if a terrorist attack does occur. These physical security measures can deter potential attackers and provide an added layer of protection.

Seems rather crass to mention this now,..... but the terrorist attack in Moscow,.. is an example of why this will/is an important piece of legislation,.. and legislation that will surely lead to a new revenue stream for WQSG.

"The Martyn's Law (Protect Duty) legislation, which will set out standards to protect patrons and the general public from terrorist attacks when in crowded spaces, was expected to come into force within the UK during 2023, but due to parliamentary procedures, is now expected to be in the King's Speech to parliament on 7 November 2023, for implementation in 2024. The Home Office estimates that 650,000 UK businesses could be affected. This could include settings such as pubs, shopping centres, music venues, parks, places of worship and any other place where large gatherings of people occur. With Westminster's expertise and portfolio of products and services we are well placed to assist businesses and organisations improve their security. In this respect, we have already secured a number of important contracts ahead of the legislation coming into force and are in contract discussions with a number of other potential customers. We believe this could be a sizeable business opportunity for the Group. For more information on Protect Duty, see here: https://www.wg-plc.com/protect-duty#"