Member Info for Mike1959

....I have found the Tamesis report on the Tharisa website. The Tamesis 2023 estimate is for EBITDA of $233m, PBT $193.7 m, PAT $149.4m, earnings 49.8 c/share.. The big difference from my assumptions is that they are assuming a PGM basket price of about $2206/oz for H2 ($2211/oz for the total year) while I have used $1834/oz for H2 which was the actual Tharisa PGM basket price at the end of March and this accounts for about $25 m, the bulk of the difference.
Personally I think they are far too high with their PGM price (they are sponsored by Tharisa) but time will tell!

Ian. B, I have not yet read the Tamesis report ,while I agree with Tamesis on the chrome contribution (I reckon chrome will be nearer 64% of total revenue this FY) but in my humble opinion their EBITDA if $233m is way too high.
Before todays production numbers my expected NPAT for H1 was exactly $100m but todays numbers reduces this to just $57m with earnings at 13.5 cents/share. For the full year I now have PBT of $ 156m and NPAT of $115m with earnings of 37.5 cents/share and PE now 3.2
We will get the actual H1 financial results on 19th May.

As Rylidan mentions there is many good things here but the production numbers are disappointing due to heavy rain/pit flooding and oxidised UG reef of mine significantly reducing the PGM recovery percentage. Although interestingly THS has appointed a temporary contractor to assist with waste mining which will hopefully pull back some of the numbers in H2 even though the FY guidance has ben cut by 10%.
I will work out what I think this does for the H1 and FY numbers.

....Happy Easter too!

Sam, my SIPP/ISA is with HL and it works well if a little bit my expensive than others. Although they do not have an automatic facility to reinvest dividends , you could just do it manually each time but paying the commission each time makes it expensive.
We did have rising time charter rates for several weeks but with the BHSI currently down for the last 10 days in a row they are now heading south again. Yesterday, Grindrod Shipping down to equivalent of $11.23 on JSE and $9.83 on Nasdaq so roughly half the $21 price TMIP paid for the majority of the shares last year.

Thanks Nickqi, certainly a more optimistic article when the underlining tone is the opposite , silmilarly his article on 29th March "this contrarian indicator suggests we're at the bottom of the mining cycle".

With the Hi production numbers out next Wednesday i was just wondering what anyone expects?
I am expecting H1 PGM production as 87,000 ozs (Q1 42,700+ Q2 44,300) at $2248/oz and chrome 833,100 tonnes (Q1 383,100 + Q2 450,000) at $258/tonne.

....I agree with Morar.
Sam surely your LSE share chat is on TMIP and not TMI?

Sam, as we have said before it is a team effort and we bounce off each other.
After taking out a term loan of $208.3 million in Dec to finance the Grindrod purchase , EB did promise to reduce gross debt from 31.2% to about 25% within 6 months which is a reduction of roughly $50 million Having already sold 3 vessels this Quarter , presumably for around $37m the business is ahead of schedule to achieve this.
Hi Morar, thanks for the article, which as Sam had reported sounds extremely positive. My pick of the information was that the value of a 10 year old Handymax had increased from $16.5m at the start of Jan to $18.5m today which is a 12% increase. Normal vessel depreciation is roughly 6%/year or 1.5% every quarter, If that 12% increase less 1.5% expected depreciation is prorated through the entire 56 vessel fleet that is an additional value of about $100m , at that rate I think that Grindrod would go back into profit and TMI grow the Quarterly profit. Roll on27th April when we get the Jan-March NAV update.

Sam, thanks for your info.
Friday 31st March is the end of the current TMI financial year rather than any results, the financial year results will be out on 13th July (Jan-March NAV will be out on 27th April).
Good to hear from you Krusty.

Today, slightly higher at $290-300/tonne CIF Chinese port.

Sam, as usual let us know what happens in the Kepler presentation on 28/03. I expected you to comment after the recent RHS that EB is now also CEO of Grindrod, the gradual integration continues.
The BHSI is down today, the first drop since 15th Feb but we are still back to the levels of mid-December.

Visitor , I get the FY 2022 all in cost for Tharisa just below your $1150/oz (although being pedantic the one off gain of $48.391 million is attributable to the Karo purchase and so should not be attributable to the Thrisa mine and this would increase the AISC for the Tharisa mine to nearer $1370/oz.
But THS splits the Cost Of Sales between PGM' and chrome based on revenue ex works which in FY 2022 was 70% PGM and 30% chrome. Due to the higher chrome price and volume and lower PGM price the the current financial year the split is likely to change to less than 40% PGM and over 60% chrome so that PGM'S will carry a much smaller percentage of the direct sales costs which I reckon will reduce the Tharisa mine AISC cost to nearer $900/oz. This really reflects that at the moment you could argue that THS is a chrome miner with PGM by-products.
We are effectively half way through the financial year , given that the PGM and chrome prices for the first half are effectively already locked in , if for the second half we use the current chrome price and the current PGM price less say $100/oz then the overall profitability for the year will still be higher that suggested before the start of the year (higher Chrome prices, better USD/ZAR exchange rate, lower sea freight rates more than offsetting the lower PGM price.
Soloto , even if your pessimism for PGM's is correct why is it that on JSE that THA has a trailing PE of 2.1 ,but the big 4 PGM producers which are more reliant on PGM's with a smaller percentage of by-products are all on higher trailing PE's (Anglo American Platinum 5.7; Impala Platinum 4.6; Sibanye Stillwater 5.8 and Northam Platinum 5.9). The only disadvantage I see for Tharisa at the moment is that they are well into spending $391m (almost 2 years of NPAT) on the Karo project when the expected return has significantly fallen while the big 4 are spending significantly less as a percentage of their assets on capex and also have added value from their refinery streams which Tharisa does not have.

....yes that is a 24% drop in the rhodium price is just one month.
The THS HI/2023 result will probably include a PGM fair value loss of about -$8 million due to the falling basket price.

Sotolo, If the NPAT at Karo was reduced to $26m for the first 5 years then that is roughly equivalent to 0% IRR, so you may as well leave your cash in a building society earning 1% interest/year.
The Get Out of Jail Card for Karo is that the Life Of Mine is currently only based on 17 years but with the massive implied reserves and some more geological testing this could easily be increased to 25 years+.
The other elephant in the room is that the Zim government owns 15% of Karo Platinum as a free carry and so for no further financial commitment they will take 15% of the NPAT (I have assumed the cost of the free carry is already costed into the costs).
I still think you are being overly negative on PGM prices. PGM production increased massively in 2020-2021 based on high prices, Anglo American Platinum the biggest producer produced 2.05 m ozs in 2021 and then a massive 5.1 m ozs in 2021. If the PGM price reduces then they will reduce production at marginal mines. Admittedly there may be a time lag of 12-18 months before lower prices are reflected in lower production.

Sotolo, just saying that with the IRR below 10% that makes the NPV10 negative.
Visitor, I used the numbers that I have mentioned before. Year 1 outlay of $391m, years 2-6 Profit After Tax of $50m, years 7-18 Profit After Tax of $42.5 million. Life of mine 17 years.
Years 1-5 turnover $301m (PGM's 190,000 ozs x $1640 x 80% payable =249, base metals $52m). Cash cost of production $1100/oz x 190,000 =$209m less financing $17m , less depreciation $26m. gives Profit Before Tax of $50m , no tax for 5 years then pay 15% corporation tax.
I accept it is just a broad stab. My guestimate of "all in cost" is around $1377/oz so we are roughly in the same ballpark. You are right about the contingency.
Just saying that based on the CURRENT PGM price (now even lower than the $1640/oz I used) the starting button for Karo would not have been pressed.

Sotolo/Visitor, I have finally got round to working our the IRR of Karo based on the current Karo PGM basket price and I make it less than 10% so that is well below the 25% hurdle rate set by THS and it does not even cover the 9.5%/year interest on the bond.. I need to say that my calculation includes lots of assumptions so DYOR. As we have discussed before it is clearly very sensitive to the PGM price and so needs an upturn in the long run. The project is still profitable but below the current IRR at Tharisa. There is no turning back now that THS has already invested so much and with the first ore in mill scheduled for July.
This should not detract from the THS numbers with forward PE below 2 and forward price/book value around 0.4 which effectively does not put any value on Karo anyway although Karo will remain a financial drain until it is fully operational in 2024 and by then hopefully PGM prices have improved and it is contributing to THS as much as the S African operation (I prefer not to think what would happen if PGM prices went even lower).

...chrome price unchanged this week at £288-295/tonne CIF Chinese ports.

Sotolo, I think that is a great call, as Warren Buffet said, be greedy when others are fearful.
I now get the forward PE under 1.95 and tomorrow I expect the chrome price to be possibly higher. The PGM basket seems to have settled down, possibly PGM's are seen as a safe haven in a nervous market.
Over the last few months the THS PGM basket seems to be about $40-50/oz higher than expected based on the actual PGM prices at the time. Possibly the PGM basket has marginally changed for instance the rhodium content might have increased from say 9.8 to 10% and cheaper elements going the other way or it might reflect that the PGM percentage discount in the new Northam smelter terms are better than the terms of the old Impala contract which finished around Oct/Nov last year.

BHSI up 2.3% today to 665 and now up 0.30% YTD.
Let's hope this momentum continues!