Member Info for Mike1959

....ha ha, just sitting watching at the moment.

My theory is that the BHSI moves in 2 year cycles (2014 -39%, 2015-42%, 2016 +109%, 2017 +5%, 2018 -5%, 2019 -18%, 2020 +39% ,2022 +117%, 2022 -55%, 2023 YTD -39%.

So later this year I will look at adding for the next upward cycle.

Krusty/Sam, annual report for last financial year out tomorrow so that will give us more information.

Then April-June NAV report out on 28th July, I expect a tiny improvement in NAV, say 1p/share -every little helps!

BHSI unchanged yesterday. Chinese economic numbers have been disappointing over the last few months but see to be turning upwards again.

Bangrak, I assume your $95m net is for for 2024,? I still expect over $130m (and turnover over $700m) although it depends on what volumes and prices you use.

For their 2024 estimate Tamesis have used a rhodium price of $11750 which is their estimate from last September and they have not changed any of their numbers since then.

I spotted the comment but just think it is Tamesis talking the price up, I agree with Moneyman that they would probably want to de-risk Karo first.

Having studied the recent Q3 production numbers in more detail I am particularly pessimistic for the expected Q4 numbers and increases the Cost of Sales which reduces my H2/23 NPAT to $41m.

Ian, please be assured I am not having a go at you and accept you are just repeating what Tamesis have said.

I have just looked at their 12th July presentation prepared the day before, and they are working with a 2023 PGM basket price of $2121/tonne but Tharisa has already told us the price for the first 9 months is $2046 and the current basket price is under $1500. Tamesis would need a PGM price in Q4 of $2309 to achieve an average for the year of $2121.

So their 2023 turnover is dramatically overstated IMO (although they have slightly understated the chrome price).

Being paid by Tharisa, i assume they don't want to have an embarrassing PGM price. But surely if they want their report to be respected and believed then they should use more accurate numbers.

Ian, in my opinion the Tameses PE of 1.7 for FY 2023 is way too optimistic. With 9.5 months locked in and using current prices and total chrome production of 1.58 m tonnes (bottom of the revised range) and PGM 156, 000 oz (2,000 ozs below the revised minimum range of 158,000 ozs) I am expecting PAT of $98 m with 95% attributable to shareholders. Even at the lowest share price reached earlier this week of 69p this works out at around 2.9 PE. Unless PGM prices suddenly dramatically recover in the next 2.5 months then we will not get a PAT of $130 m+ needed for a PE of 1.7.DYOR.

Sotolo, with 9.5 months of the 2023 FY already locked in (and assuming PGM basket $1400/oz and $280//tonne for the remaining 2.5 months 2.5 months I calculate the Tharisa AISC for PGM as just $528/tonne, but don't forget this is based on a 2023FY average chrome price of $257/tonne. If the chrome price had only averaged say $200/tonne then the PGM AISC would have been $1203/tonne. In 2023 chrome will now account for around 68% of revenue and at current prices that percentage will be higher next year. As others have said, Tharisa is currently predominately a chrome producer, As long as the chrome price does not collapse then Tharisa is still profitable at current PGM prices.

As for the PGM AISC's for the big 4 is is worth saying that their PGM basket prices are still lower (although now closer) to ours and that PGM's generally account for a much bigger percentage of their revenue than Tharisa, for example in 2022 89% of Anglo American Platinum's revenue came from PGM'S and only 1% from chrome. Also the big 4 have multiple mines, so some will be below their average AISC and others above their average AISC, for example at Anglo their mine with the highest cash PGM cash cost in 2022 was Amandelbult at $1127/oz compared to the overall average of $937/oz, at Northam their costliest mine is Eland so it is these expensive mines that will feel the pressure of falling PGM prices. For the PGM miners after several years of abnormally high profits with emphasis to produce as much as possible, with profits dramatically reduced, the emphasis will now have changed to greater cost control such as reduced overtime and capex which will reduce marginal production over time, it may take over 12 months but it will gradually happen. These AISC's will probably face 5%+ cost inflation this year which fortunately has been more than cushioned by the weaker ZAR/stronger, this could change.

...sorry start again!

Sotolo, Anglo-American Platinum costs according to 2022 accounts (for S Arican/Zim mines combined cash $937/o,, AISC $1200/oz

Impala 2023 guidance cash ZAR 16800-17800 say $961/oz ,AISC around $1220/oz

DYOR!

Sibanye Stillwater 2022 AISC 1180/oz.

Northam Platinum h2/2022 cash 1112/oz, AISC $1216/oz, AISC plus expansionary capex $1476/oz.

Sotolo, aNGO aMERICAN CASH COST PER pgm

****, excellent observation.

i suppose the big question is that are we going to invest that $140m wisely, if $160m is invested into karo (plus capex on tharisa) before the end of 2023 and incoming cashflow is say $25m in july-sept and say $20m in oct-dec then that net cash number will be down to around $25m or even lower. fingers crossed.

....q3 production numbers are disappointing and particularly as PP suggested this will continue into the last quarter so the FY numbers look like being at the bottom end of the last advised range which was already revised down.

Reassuring information on PGM/chrome prices.

I would have liked to see more information on Karo.

I am interested if Tamesis now use the latest PGM prices (which give a better picture of where Karo is) or insist on using the old numbers in fear of upsetting THS.

The AISC for the big 4 PGM producers remains below the current PGM price level so they will remain profitable unless inflation dramatically increases/Eskom problems worsen/ZAR strengthens against USD but it will seriously affect expansion plans for most.

Increase of $36.8m cash is excellent news, this suggests the big $160m capex spend on Karo mentioned by PP will be between July-Dec so i still expect nearer zero to $80 m net cash by the end of the FY in Sept. The excellent cashflow is partly a factor of changing one of the PGM smelters at the back end of last year and the effect of this should become less apparent by the end of this year plus PGM prices are weakening.

The

Moneyman, yes, tomorrow (and not Thursday).

Sotolo, Tharisa produces Cr203 which is the concentrated ore containing 40-42% chrome content (so 58-60% others which are metallics and non-metallics)and as reported the average weekly price CIF Chinese port is $287.10/tonne.. This concentrate /ore is then metallurgically converted to ferro chrome which has a considerably higher metallic content (considerably lower non-metallics). In the weekly Tharisa twitter price you have to use the scale on the right hand side of the graph so the current S African High Carbon Ferro Chrome 50% is $0.975/lb = $2149.49/tonne of CONTAINED CHROME or x 50%= $1074.75/tonne, so you can see the ferro chrome price is considerably greater than the current chrome concentrate price. The current Chinese domestic price for high carbon ferro chrome 50% is shown as RMB 8550/tonne which at RMB 7.23/$ converts to $1182.57/tonne. So the price in China is about $108/tonne higher than the same price in S Africa.

The main factors controlling the ferrochrome price are the raw material price, transport, energy import taxes/vat and local demand/supply factors. The reason the ferrochrome price has fallen by a bigger percentage that the chrome concentrate price is reflecting that energy prices have fallen since the start of the year..

So Tharisa produces chrome concentrates and sells worldwide mainly to ferrochrome producers who in turn resell to stainless steel producers. .

Bangrak, net cash at the end of March was $106.8m, but with the big cash spend on Karo in the second half of this year I expect the net cash to drop to say $90m at the end of June and say zero at the end of the FY. For FY 2023 earnings I expect $108m. Current market capitalisation is about $269m.

But I like your way of looking at this and as Moneyman agrees it still looks cheap. We are still looking at a PE of 3.1 for 2024 based on current PGM basket and chrome price.

The Q3 figures are out on Thursday, I am expecting PGM 40,000 oz at $1625/oz and chrome 394,000 tonnes at $294/tonnes?????

....sounds good to me.....have a great weekend too.

Hi,....it is the Share Soc UK presentation, please scroll down to 2nd July below.

PP still expecting incremental improvements in Vulcan but suggested it might not get to the nameplate 80% recovery.

Sam, unfortunately I called it wrong and the BHSI has continued to fall particularly with the negative economic numbers in China.

By early next week I think we will see a new YTD low for the index , below the 421 we saw in April.

Sotolo, best of luck to you although as others have pointed out you do appear to be inconsistent, only 2 days ago you advised " I see rh halving or more as the price overshoots".

For me I still see the fundamental supply side deficit for rhodium still in place this year and over the next few years and I

would suggest the rhodium price has already overshot on the downward side. The market has been spooked by weakening demand , fast increasing interest rates that penalise holders of stock and the greater than expected acceleration in Chinese BEV's that you have highlighted.. Without a terminal futures market the spot rhodium market can be quiet and illiquid particularly in the northern hemisphere summer months when buyers are thinking of beaches. Possibly Russia or one of the bigger S African miners has offloaded a big volume and temporarily glutted the market. I still see global ICE sales increasing this year (despite increasing BEV's) and loading increasing for 3-4 years and then the secular loss to BEV's start to bite from 2025 onwards. By then I hope the secular increase in green hydrogen will take over (PP has even hinted at some exciting developments on energy storage at Tharisa, hopefully we will know more soon) and I think it is this that has totally insulated iridium from the falling prices seen with the other PGM prices.

....yes, thanks very much Ilja.

Your rhodium price of $4420.20 is still higher than todays price of $4,000 quoted both by Johnson Matthey and Sibanye Stillwater. Presumably your price is averaged over a few days alternatively the last physical rhodium sale to the 2 smelters.

Interestingly while the rhodium price has collapsed the iridium price has been rock solid and now looks higher than the rhodium price.

Hi Ilja, your rhodium price on twitter today looks wrong? Can you please advise if the PGM basket prices are correct. Thanks in advance.