Member Info for Mike1959

While Grindrod Profit After Tax for the full year was $103.4 million, for Oct-Dec they made a loss of $4.6 million which is worrying with even tougher conditions so far this year.
Net Asset Value at the end of December was $287.449 million (or about $15/share) so with TMI owning 83.23% of this that is equivalent to$239 million although as TMI stated in the 31st Dec Factsheet "Grindrod is held as an investment at fair value through profit and loss, contributing $352 million to TMI's NAV".

Hi Krusty ......yes we have to wait until 9pm our time when Nasdaq closes tonight in New York.

Ex-dividend today!
BHSI down 0.23% today, but that is the first drop this month so it seems to be stabilising.
Today Grindrod Shipping has announced that their Q4 and year ending 31st Dec 2022 earnings results will be published on Wednesday 15th Feb.

Last week Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) announced that 2022 refined PGM production was down 25% on 2021 blaming power outages, lower mine production/grades and a smelter rebuild but left their 2023 target unchanged at 3.6-4.0 million ozs depending on power outages.
Also last week Impala Platinum said that while concentrates production was unchanged in H2 2022, refined PGM production was down 9% YOY due to load shedding and a furnace rebuild.
On Friday, the bulk S African 40-42% chrome concentrate price CIF Chinese ports increased to USD 290-295/tonne.
With 4 months of the current year already locked in, my current expected PAT for this FY is USD 196 million giving a PE of 2.05 and a dividend yield of 7.3%!

Visitor, that is an excellent point about 2023 palladium production being lower at Nornickel although this is due to major furnace repairs so presumably the number will recover in 2024(they also produce some platinum and rhodium, although considerably smaller quantities , so presumably they will be lower too).
You mention global palladium production in 2021 as about 6.34 million ozs. But this is only the primary/mined production. There is also over 3 million ozs of secondary/recycled palladium (largely from catalytic convertors but also from industrial/jewellery applications). So total palladium production in 2022 was around 10 million ozs/year.

Now that China is back after the Lunar New Year things seem to be picking up.
The BHSI is now the same as 5 days ago and we have finally had 2 successive days being upward. Hopefully that means it has bottomed out!

Likewise thanks for the info as i dis not make the meeting. As you say Sam it looks like Grindrod will stay as a separate company, In the TMI Q3 announcement they say that Grindrod is held as an investment at fair value in the profit and loss. So I assume this means that Grindrod will in February issue its unaudited result for Oct-Dec and then if April issue its own FY accounts for Jan-Dec 2022.
I doubted TMI's commitment to the dividend but you were both correct and they have reiterated their target. I still do not expect a special dividend this year.
Grindrod certainly performed much better in H2 last year than I though when I said TMI would be paying a premium to NAV. The TMI announcement shows their 83.23%shareholding (16.2 million shares) in Grindrod have a fair market value of $352m or $21.7/share so when they bought the additional shares at $21 they actually paid a small discount to NAV.
Reducing the gross debt from 31.2% to about 25% in 6 months will be a reduction of about $50m which will include the 2 vessels already agreed for sale at$24.4m and so probably another 2 vessels will be sold , reducing the TMI fleet to 21. It is great to see that TMI has ordered its first brand new vessel which will reduce the average age of the fleet to under 12 years and that it will be ammonia powered which will cut the CO2 emissions.
Likewise it is good that at the end of Dec , time charter duration averages 6 months which will ggive us some insulation against current BHSI levels.
TMI has answered all of my concerns so if you pardon the pun, I m back on board!

Krusty/Sam, the figures are considerably better than I expected and the dividend is unchanged.
The NAV is down to only $1.67/share (so the current share price is a 34% discount to this) although I am not sure if this allows for the majority ownership of Grindrod.
It supports your optimism and shows I have been far too negative.

Krusty/Sam, likewise looking forward to the figures tomorrow and getting some answers to the questions we have been asking!
I was not aware that GRIN had gone into a closed period until March and as you point out there is considerable confusion with some holders. Grindrod currently trading at equivalent of $15 on JSE now and about $14 yesterday on Nasdaq.
I can't imagine TMI will meet or even beat year-end forecasts (i assume you mean the financial year and
I suppose it depends which forecasts?). BHSI was 1009 at the end of September and 433 yesterday, although yesterday was unchanged from the day before, if the BHSI is up today it will be the first time we have had 2 consecutive days without a reduction since 7/10th October. China will be opening up again next week so I hope that leads to the end of the death spiral!

...it is one of the 2000 or so companies on the London Stock Exchange but it is NOT one of the 600 or so companies in the FTSE All-Share Index.
It is also listed on the Johannrsburg Stock Exchange.

Sam, well spotted, I did not realise that TMI had confirmed Friday 27/01 on their website!
When announcing the Q3 results TMI did say that 55% of remaining fleet days to the end of March 2023 are covered at an average time charter of $18,638/day (which looks good to the actual $17,670/day for July- Sept 2022) So I am hoping that 60% of Oct-Dec will be at $18,638 and the other 40% at say $14,000 giving an overall average for the Quarter of about $16,800/day.
Grindrod have said that as at 10th November about 75% of Handysize days for Oct-Dec were covered at $15,688/day and effectively 100% of Supramax/Ultramax at $22,850/day.
Sadly these figure will drop dramatically lower for Jan-March 2023 based on the BHSI down a third since the start of the year.
There will be a big drop in NAV/share for Oct-Dec (mainly due to the GRIN majority purchase and also to a lesser extent lower vessel prices and lower operating profit) but it will still be higher that the current share price. How the share price reacts next Friday will depend on the NAV, news on the dividend and update on the merging of the 2 businesses (particularly paying the debt off fast which will require vessel sales and cost savings).

Current S African chrome concentrate 40-42% price is $275-280/tonne CIF China which is holding up well considering the Chinese Lunar holidays start around now.
Total chrome stocks at Chinese ports were last reported on 13th Jan at 2.13 million tonnes , down by 129,000 from the week before.

Guys, I am very nervous like you, Baltic Handysize Index down another 1.97% today to 449, that is a massive 32.28% fall since the start of this month., we certainly don't want to see pre2020 levels.
Sam, as you point out some US shipping companies are still holding up well, although on Nasdaq, GRIN currently $14.9/share (nearly half the $21+5 that TMI agreed in August and paid in December. Trade Winds does have some good info. I agree we need to see a recovery in China which is effectively closed for the next week or so.
You know my thoughts on the dividend but as you say we will find out when the NAV/dividend is announced possibly around next Friday but could be the following week.
After the Grindrod purchase in December there is no doubt that TMI would have liked to sell a few vessels to reduce the secured term loan but vessel values are also under pressure so it will be interesting to see if vessels are sold at a discount to their value when GRIN was bought or if any vessel sales will be delayed.

The production numbers are certainly considerably lower than I had imagined particularly the reef mined (especially as the stripping ratio has improved) I remember the heavy rain the year before but obviously I have underestimated that it appears to be considerably worse this time round, these things happen! THS might not say so but there could also be an effect from the tragic loss of life and clamp down on health and safety.
I am pleased to see THS has maintained the production guidance for the full year of 175-185k ozs PGM and 1.75-1.85m tonnes chrome . While I was working on the middle of these ranges I think we might struggle to make these numbers so going forward I will be working on the bottom of these ranges which I think will still be a challenge.
Despite the production numbers the cash numbers are excellent!

Ilja, Happy New Year and hope you are having a good summer. Thanks for the Tharisa PGM basket price on Twitter today of $2342/oz. I am not complaining , as it is higher than I was expecting because the iridium price is now $4608/oz but when last reported on 12th December it was $2827, not sure if one of these is a typo or just a reflection of the new smelting terms.
Excellent news on chrome.

Sam, I am pleased that you have taken it the way it was intended. It is always good to bounce ideas off each other.
I am still working and have always been involved in buying/selling various metals which has including importing/exporting hence the interest in shipping. I am just trying to invest my SIPP sensibly and my knowledge of TMI comes from the same public information available to all of us and spending a few hours drilling into some of the finer details.

Sam, as you say, let us move on.
You have explained before that this is your biggest investment and that you are leaning to reinvest your Dollar dividends in TMI. But I would respectfully suggest you reconsider this concentration and stick to the general rules of diversification.
Last year the October-December 2021 unaudited NAV and dividend was announced on 27th January with an ex-dividend date of 3rd Feb and payment date of 23rd Feb. Because of the complexity of the majority Grindrod Shipping takeover I think the Oct-Dec 2022 unaudited NAV and dividend announcement could be delayed to early Feb . The $5 Grindrod special dividend was paid in early December and at the same time to help finance the takeover, TMI secured a $208.3 million secured term loan from Nordea and SEB banks (probably at Libor plus about 2% totalling roughly 7% for up to 3 years).My extremely rough calculation is the the NAV of the enlarged TMI will fall from $1.70/share at the end of September to $1.22/share at the end of December, despite the big drop this is still above the current TMIP/TMI share price of 97.5p/$1.115 but the discount to NAV is reduced to about 9% with further bad news in the next quarter based on the current BHSI/BDI.
I am not certain if the Oct-Dec 2022 results for Grindrod will be published as the majority is now owned by TMI and will be included in the TMI Oct-Dec figures but because they are still officially traded on Nasdaq JSE the separate Grindrod results might have to be published? Anyhow I am expecting the profit before tax at Grindrod to fall from $22.2m for July-September to $ 14m for Oct-Dec plus a fall in vessel values and having to pay -out the special dividend. There is a possibility that Grindrod might barely breakeven in this current quarter. Similarly the TMI operating profit will be down in Oct-Dec plus reduced vessel values, no dividend from Grindrod and having to pay a premium to NAV for over 12 million Grindrod shares. The breakeven Handysize time charter rate for TMI is currently about $8,000/day. In the first week of January the BDI has fallen 25.4% and the BHSI 16.7% and unless we see a sudden improvement (I think we need a few weeks after the end of the Chinese New Year to see if this is happening) then this will lead to lower time charter rates and even lower vessel values. For me, this will all unfortunately result in a reduction of the TMI dividend. DYOR!

Hi Sotolo, APOLOGIES for my typo, you are correct, Rh price should read about 51% ,not about 31% ( I am assuming a THS Rh price of $ 11900 x 9.7% of the basket , and a total basket price of $22,500/oz.
Glad to know you and others are checking these things and it is great to have your input and thoughts and it is only by working together do we eek out a few extra pieces of a complex ever changing jigsaw.
Let me use the opportunity to say that, compared to about 6 months ago, you now seem remarkably chilled that a imminent collapse in the PGM basket price will not happen in the medium term!

Don't forget that the 55% Pt and 17% Pd are the percentage contents in the PGM mix, as Sirius B points out , due to the relevant price differences Pt generates about 24% of PGM value and Pd about 14%. Rh accounts for about 31% of PGM value although it only makes up about 10% of the PGM basket by content.
Again as SiriusB points out , the Oct to Dec 2022 production numbers will be announced next Wednesday, I am expecting reef mined about 1.41 million tonnes, PGM about 47,600 oz and Chrome concentrates excluding 3rd parties 450,000 tonnes with an average PGM basket price of $2323/oz and Chrome $229/tonne. Hopefully it will also answer some of the previous questions on this board such as update on Karo financing/capex/ground works/olar farm, update of Vulcan efficiency and for me some of the big currency swings in the last FY accounts.
Bismarck- thanks for your numbers, you are towards the back of a long queue of us that have been saying for years that the THS share price is crazily low, but it is what it is! There are number of explanations. The conventional wisdom is that the accounts up to September 2023 will be marginally behind the trailing accounts. Unfortunately as others have reported, there still appears to be a medium sized seller drip-feeding into the market against the daily purchases by private investors, we just have to wait for them to finish. Keep the faith!
The South African chrome concentrate 40-42% bulk price CIF China is still $255-265/tonne despite the covid problems in China and sea freight costs from Richards Bay and Maputo to Chinese ports have drifted down to $25-30/tonne.
Ilja usually takes an extended Christmas break, but hopefully he is back in the office next week and can confirm the current PGM basket price is in the mid $2200's.

.....well, I am 63, so what a trio!
I totally agree with your review of the resignation.
BDHI down to 571 today, as Krusty said few weeks ago we appear to be in a "death spiral" and as Sam points out we need positive news out of China on covid.
It could be worse, the BDI fell 17.5% on Monday, its biggest ever fall from the previous close , although it was compared to 23/12. The TMIP share price is remaining remarkably steady which is a combination of the takeover and I hope that the enlarged group will still be trading at a discount to NAV when the Oct-Dec NAV is actually announced.
I just wonder if TMIP is giving themselves a few weeks to try to buy a few more Grindrod shares on the JSE/Nasdaq open market at sub-$20 compared to the unconditional $21+5 offer, to try and push above the 90% ownership before the inevitable delisting of Grindrod on JSE/Nasdaq. Grindrod down 8.35% on JSE today to equivalent of $16.6 and currently down 8.89% on Nasdaq to $15.79, that is a 39% reduction to the $26 that TMIP had offered.